by Reality Check » Fri Jun 22, 2012 1:06 pm
vincecate wrote:Reality Check wrote:Italy and Spain complain about extremely high interest rates killing their economy.
Seven percent is not extremely high.
In fact, by historical standards it is not even high.
About 1980 I took $6,000 I had saved from my paper route and invested in a 20% second deed of trust for 3 years.
If the US had a 7% interest rate now, then the interest on the US government debt would be clearly unsustainable. They are printing money so fast that eventually we will get inflation higher than 7%. So interest rates will go higher or the Fed will be the only buyer of debt, and print even faster. All it takes is for the velocity of money to stop going down.
When you say "then the interest on the US government debt" you are talking about the amount of money the U.S. Government pays in interest each year.
That amount of interest the U.S. government pays is the product of multiplying the Total amount of government Debt that has interest payments due, by the "weighted average interest rate" on that debt. The total such U.S. government debt is now in excess of $16,000,000,000,000.
Even if interest rates on new government debt and refinanced government debt were to go up to 7% for new debt tomorrow, the "weighted average interest rate on all accumulated debt" would not go up to 7%.
My point here is the problem in both Germany and Italy is the same. The size of the total accumulated debt is the problem, not an interest rate of 3%, 5% or 7% on new debt and refinanced debt.
Germany has a huge Gross Domestic Product supported in part by robust exports to countries like Italy, France and Spain using money borrowed by the Italian, French and Spanish governments that allow citizens of those countries to buy German goods.
Germany's total accumulated government Debt ( as a percentage of German GDP ) is not a whole lot less, than Italy's total accumulated Debt as a percentage of Italian GDP.
Going to Euro wide government bonds and government deficit financed stimulus spending in Italy, France and Spain will kick the can down the road a while longer for Germany by keeping those exports flowing to Italy, France and Spain for a few more months or even a few more years. After all it is German "weighted average interest" on it's total accumulated debt that is important, not it's current interest rate on new and refinanced debt.
At least that will be the justification by German elites if they elect to go that route.
[quote="vincecate"][quote="Reality Check"]Italy and Spain complain about extremely high interest rates killing their economy.
Seven percent is not extremely high.
In fact, by historical standards it is not even high.[/quote]
About 1980 I took $6,000 I had saved from my paper route and invested in a 20% second deed of trust for 3 years.
If the US had a 7% interest rate now, then the interest on the US government debt would be clearly unsustainable. They are printing money so fast that eventually we will get inflation higher than 7%. So interest rates will go higher or the Fed will be the only buyer of debt, and print even faster. All it takes is for the velocity of money to stop going down.[/quote]
When you say "then the interest on the US government debt" you are talking about the amount of money the U.S. Government pays in interest each year.
That amount of interest the U.S. government pays is the product of multiplying the Total amount of government Debt that has interest payments due, by the "weighted average interest rate" on that debt. The total such U.S. government debt is now in excess of $16,000,000,000,000.
Even if interest rates on new government debt and refinanced government debt were to go up to 7% for new debt tomorrow, the "weighted average interest rate on all accumulated debt" would not go up to 7%.
My point here is the problem in both Germany and Italy is the same. The size of the total accumulated debt is the problem, not an interest rate of 3%, 5% or 7% on new debt and refinanced debt.
Germany has a huge Gross Domestic Product supported in part by robust exports to countries like Italy, France and Spain using money borrowed by the Italian, French and Spanish governments that allow citizens of those countries to buy German goods.
Germany's total accumulated government Debt ( as a percentage of German GDP ) is not a whole lot less, than Italy's total accumulated Debt as a percentage of Italian GDP.
Going to Euro wide government bonds and government deficit financed stimulus spending in Italy, France and Spain will kick the can down the road a while longer for Germany by keeping those exports flowing to Italy, France and Spain for a few more months or even a few more years. After all it is German "weighted average interest" on it's total accumulated debt that is important, not it's current interest rate on new and refinanced debt.
At least that will be the justification by German elites if they elect to go that route.