Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Higgenbotham wrote: Mon Sep 02, 2024 7:58 pm Last weekend, I had a wide ranging 2 hour conversation with a young woman (age 18) who is the daughter of immigrants to the US. I've noticed many immigrants don't think this is the land of milk and honey once they've been here for awhile, but some of the things this young woman said were quite surprising to me.

I don't use the words "dark age" when talking to people in real life, but several topics that have been discussed in this virtual dark age hovel came up. She asked me what I thought of AI. I said the first thing that comes to mind with regard to any new technology is whether you believe the civilization is on the ascent or the decline. If you believe the civilization is on the ascent, and you are right about that, then AI will probably on net be a positive and force for good. However, if you believe that the civilization is on the decline...at which point she interjected, "Oh, definitely!"...and then I finished my thought.

What is Mo Gawdat referring to when he says children are being molested on camera and nothing is being done?

When Mo Gawdat discusses the horrors of children being molested on camera, he is referring to the global crisis of Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) and live-streamed child exploitation rings. He frequently points to this grim reality to emphasize the moral and ethical failures of humanity, expressing deep frustration that despite having advanced surveillance and digital tracking technologies, the networks that produce, buy, and trade this material continue to thrive.

Specifically, his critique focuses on a few compounding issues:

Digital Scale: Global authorities (such as the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children) receive tens of millions of cyber tips and track hundreds of millions of files containing child exploitation, but law enforcement agencies are constantly overwhelmed and unable to keep pace with the volume of abuse.

Live-Streamed Abuse: He frequently references the dark commercialization of this crime, such as international, on-demand webcam operations that allow predators to pay for the live-streamed abuse of children.

Technology and Ethics: Gawdat argues that humanity's flawed value system allows these "unspeakable" crimes to continue. He points out that while technology is highly capable of identifying and stopping this content, the monetization of human attention on social platforms and an overall lack of societal awareness allow the dark web and exploitative networks to flourish in plain sight.

Fullmoonn wrote: Sat Jun 06, 2026 2:24 pm Given that it's breaking apart before our eyes and that sadly, your predictions will be apparent not only soon but probably come upon us like the metaphor of the incoming tsunami. Because the tide has obviously gone out fast far and food and energy will once again regain their central position.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri May 15, 2026 3:08 pm Today I was at one of those school events where everybody gets an award. Then the kids that "tried hardest" and went from illiterate to reading a few words got another award. The high achievers got nothing. This is another case of following the money. Disabilities are where the money's at.

That will rectify itself by the time the bottom of the new dark age is reached. The Archdruid says the survival rate will be 5%. I say less than 1%. 8 billion to something a bit less than 80 million ("a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries"). But, hey, maybe everyone gets an award for just a little while longer on the way down. Until we run out of other people's money.

Do veterans that are 100% disabled pay property taxes?

AI Overview

In many states across the U.S., veterans who are rated 100% permanently and totally disabled by the VA are completely exempt from paying property taxes on their primary residence. Because it is a state-level policy, the exact eligibility rules, surviving spouse benefits, and application requirements vary.

The Exemption: In Texas, veterans with a 100% disability rating (or a determination of individual unemployability) from the VA are completely exempt from paying property taxes on their residence homestead.

Primary Residence Only: This exemption can only be applied to a single residence homestead that the veteran owns.

Surviving Spouses: The exemption can transfer to an unremarried surviving spouse if they continue to live in the home.

tim wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2026 8:51 am https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/05 ... argentina/

Report: Billionaire Peter Thiel Flees America, Moves Family to Argentina

Billionaire investor Peter Thiel has reportedly moved his family to Buenos Aires, Argentina, in order to get away from high taxes in the United States — and to flee what he suspects will be a nuclear war and runaway AI.

I’m not familiar with Argentina’s last fourth turning but if it was the dirty war 1976-1983 this might’ve been a smart move.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2026 5:15 pm

tim wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2026 8:52 am When the Soviet Union collapsed there was still civilization in other parts of the world to “keep the lights on”.

If America had a similar collapse but as the world’s reserve currency, do we take all of the civilized world down with us?

If our currency fails will all other currencies tied to us fail or will they find their own value?

I felt sure enough about what will happen to say that the result of the financial collapse in the US will be that international trade will grind to a halt and not get restarted.

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:49 pm
My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

Maybe we'll soon find out if this is what happens.

The reason they flood the world with dollars every time there's a hint of a crisis is to keep international trade flowing. One day it will no longer work.

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2026 5:15 pm The reason they flood the world with dollars every time there's a hint of a crisis is to keep international trade flowing.

Does the federal reserve flood the world with dollars each time there is a financial crisis in order to keep international trade flowing?

Yes. During severe financial crises, the Federal Reserve effectively "floods" the global financial system with U.S. dollars. It does this to maintain global economic stability, prevent catastrophic credit freezes, and keep international trade flowing, since the dollar serves as the primary currency for global commerce and debt settlement.

The Fed accomplishes this primarily through the following established mechanisms:

Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines: The Fed creates or expands emergency "swap lines" with major foreign central banks. These facilities allow foreign central banks to temporarily trade their local currencies for U.S. dollars. These central banks then lend the dollars to overseas commercial banks so they can continue to fund international trade and settle debts.

FIMA Repo Facility: The Fed offers permanent repurchase (repo) operations for Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA). This allows over 150 foreign central banks and international monetary institutions to temporarily exchange their U.S. Treasury securities for dollars without having to sell off those assets in the open market.

Quantitative Easing (QE): During crises, the Fed purchases massive quantities of U.S. government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This floods the domestic banking system with reserves, which inevitably leak into global markets, lowering global borrowing costs and providing essential liquidity.

While the Fed does this to act as the de facto international lender of last resort, its primary legal mandate is to protect the U.S. economy. By providing other nations with dollars, the Fed prevents financial panics abroad from spiraling into a catastrophic collapse of U.S. households and businesses.

Sending billions of dollars abroad in the middle of a historic economic crisis might seem crazy: As America's economy crumbles, why are we moving our precious dollars *out* of the country?

The answer has to do with the Fed's unique position in the global economy. Dollars are the lynchpin of global trade. International loans, debts, and bank transactions are largely done with dollars. Foreign central banks need dollars to stabilize their financial systems. The dollar isn't just America's money. It's the world's money. It's why when the COVID-19 crisis hit, there was a record-breaking rush to get dollars around the globe. And the Fed is the only institution with the power to print them.

aedens wrote: Fri Jun 05, 2026 8:57 pm The lipstick period.
I did take your advise just not as advanced as your percentage forwarded.

tim wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2026 8:52 am When the Soviet Union collapsed there was still civilization in other parts of the world to “keep the lights on”.

If America had a similar collapse but as the world’s reserve currency, do we take all of the civilized world down with us?

If our currency fails will all other currencies tied to us fail or will they find their own value?

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:49 pm
My more specific predictions would be:

• There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun May 31, 2026 10:51 am Take it on the Run by REO Speedwagon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7Csc6l4QLs

"I know the neighborhood and talk is cheap when the story is good and the tales grow taller on down the line."

AI Overview

"Putting lipstick on a pig" is a classic Wall Street idiom for making a fundamentally flawed or overvalued asset look like a solid investment. During stock market bubbles, brokers use clever marketing, complex derivatives, or rebranded corporate jargon to disguise risky, unprofitable stocks as revolutionary opportunities.

The Anatomy of a Bubble

Historically, periods of irrational exuberance follow a predictable cycle:

The Displacement: A new technology or massive economic shift (like AI, subprime mortgages, or the internet) catches public attention.
The Boom: Easy credit and massive hype pull in retail investors. Asset prices detach from underlying fundamental metrics.
The Euphoria: The market is "tarted up". Every company suddenly rebrands to associate itself with the latest trend to boost its valuation.
The Profit Taking / Panic: Smart money quietly exits as growth forecasts fail to materialize. The public is left holding the bag.

For a detailed breakdown of how to identify artificial hype and protect your portfolio from inflated assets:

Dressing Up the "Pig"

When a bubble is inflating, companies and financial institutions often use superficial tweaks to make a fundamentally poor business model look incredibly attractive:

Creative Accounting & Non-GAAP Metrics: Instead of using standard profitability (like net income), companies highlight flashy customized metrics (e.g., "Adjusted EBITDA"). This hides the actual cash burn under layers of glossy marketing.
The "Hype Cycle" Rebrand: Corporate entities rapidly pivot their core messaging to align with the latest buzzword to drive a speculative frenzy.
Complex Derivatives: Wall Street creates repackaged products (similar to those seen in the 2008 crisis) to mask the risk and sell bad debt to unsuspecting buyers.
Selective Disclosure: Aggressive marketing pushes glowing future projections, while minimizing or burying the harsh fundamentals in the fine print.

Cutting Through the Noise

The best defense against a market bubble is relying on foundational valuation rather than the "greater fool" theory. As Benjamin Graham famously noted, price is what you pay; value is what you get.

To spot whether you are looking at true value or just lipstick on a pig:

Look beyond social media hype and check the free cash flow.
Avoid investments driven purely by momentum.
Pay attention when insiders begin selling their shares.