Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 24, 2026 5:46 pm

There are two things that John said that I think are relevant to insert at this time.

One was generational change is a force of nature.

The second was that you can prepare.

My next task will be to revisit all those applicable quotes to get John's exact take on those two things. Or if anyone else wants to jump in and do it that is fine.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 24, 2026 5:18 pm

On Friday, the Democratic party rep stopped by here. I talked to him for quite awhile about Talarico vs Paxton, the death in the Amazon warehouse and other things brought up here. He was about my age and claimed to be a former Republican leaning independent. I doubt it, but maybe so. The main takeaway from him is he said the difference between 2024 and this year is people are a lot more angry and energized due to the cost squeeze. That I don't doubt. I told him I wasn't going to vote. His reaction led me to think he's been a Democrat all along.

Meanwhile, there are a few subdivisions south of here on the way to my daughter's school and a few days ago I noticed some fluorescent colored hand made signs advertising "community wide garage sale" in front of each entrance to take place today from 8 am to noon. I've seen these other years but thought this year is the year to start getting in tune to this type of thing. Out of perhaps 200 homes I drove past there were about 6 sales going on and not much for sale. Not many customers. As of now, the activity is too spread out and not enough to be significant. That'll change when the collapse of the economy forces the change. So they may be angry due to the cost squeeze but they aren't inclined to do anything serious about it yet.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Sat Oct 24, 2026 2:40 pm

tim wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2026 8:29 am https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p ... rich-leads
The Hidden Looting by the Rich leads to the Physical Looting by Those Who've Been Looted

CHARLES HUGH SMITH
This set of values would turn human ingenuity away from wasting resources to increase profits to virtuous ingenuity—living well by reducing our consumption of resources by two-thirds. My personal experiences with reducing consumption while maintaining a high quality of life persuade me that the reduction by two-thirds is not as preposterous as the waste is growth mindset has led us to believe.
https://www.oftwominds.com/IIR-Intro2.pdf

There's that two-thirds estimate, this time coming from Charles Hugh Smith. It's entirely realistic and attainable. It's how the stock market falls by 98%.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Sep 06, 2026 5:53 pm
The Buffett Indicator
US Total Stock Market Cap divided by US GDP. Warren Buffett called it “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

Current value
241%
https://buffettindicator.org/

This is the highest value ever. For comparison, at the 1982 low it was 32%. The people at dshort.com are looking at a number of valuation measures and coming up with an average 156% overvalued.

That's not the whole story in my opinion. GDP since 1982 has been strongly dependent on debt growth. So in 1985, when the country was concerned about debt growth, it had just surpassed $1 trillion. Now there is some talk about it passing $40 trillion and inflation adjusted that may be up 10 fold or so. In a true economic boom, there's no need to grow your debt 10 fold; you just pay it off and retain some surpluses. The Buffett indicator shows an 8 fold growth.

The part no conventional analyst will consider is that GDP can fall. They just can't conceive of it. The other piece is profit margins. Now this sounds off the wall, but with so much misallocation of capital over the past 50 years GDP can easily fall by 2/3 and profit margins by half. That gets the stock market to the 98% loss vis a vis 1982 valuations on the Buffett Indicator.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Sat Oct 24, 2026 5:20 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2026 11:07 am
tim wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2026 8:29 am
The Hidden Looting by the Rich leads to the Physical Looting by Those Who've Been Looted

CHARLES HUGH SMITH
An astute reader summarized the dynamic succinctly: “Looting by the rich is hidden, silent, not criminalized while the physical looting by the poor is overt, thunderous and criminal.”
This was brought to life in a big way with the George Floyd incident.

Some poor down and out bloke passed a fake $20 bill to buy a pack of cigarettes. The obeisant tentacles of the State quickly descended on him, beat him for 9 minutes and asphyxiated him.

Before this happened, Bernanke had already shown he can willfully counterfeit trillions for big banks with impunity and, ultimately, it winds up in the coffers of big tech mostly, but some pathetic dude possibly made poor and pathetic by these very actions can't even pass a fake $20 bill without being killed.
The quote comes to mind...

"Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank. Give a man a bank and he can rob the world."

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Fri Oct 23, 2026 7:47 pm

https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/ ... Report.pdf

Bigger fish as the Officer was working security for the counterfeit money operation and the useful idiot Floyd
who was purported to work in was arrested after a store clerk reported He made a purchase using a counterfeit $20 bill
the actual idiots worked in "the club".

It was top shelf knowledge already how many runner coyotes and how much cash if you want to include how much was legit moved
until it was sanctioned to stop the operations. The thread was forwarded in the forums BOTH knew each other.
The training Officers use for restraint I will ignore since any one who even should have a clue already does and knows where it came from.
https://www.somaliguardian.com/news/som ... d-somalia/

https://www.reuters.com/article/world/f ... KBN23C21C/ <---- Enjoy the simple irony.

The only at hand point today noted is how fast and far the ass covering is progressing.
Taxpayers smell the rot as they contact about who's law do they actually consider.
Some time back recently that is we said mind the spread. We anticipate only this simple aspect.
They are way the hell over there ski's and as seen on real the 4x leveraged Ai was not enough to even survive round one
of this visceral shit show. Mercy in the short positions will not exist as warned even before Hayek and Minski.

Key Themes from 1992.
The power and potential abuse of independent counsel investigations
The weaponization of legal processes against political opponents
The fine line between legitimate prosecution and political persecution in cases of policy disagreements

It never sleeps.
It only changes its voice.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Fri Oct 23, 2026 11:07 am

tim wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2026 8:29 am
The Hidden Looting by the Rich leads to the Physical Looting by Those Who've Been Looted

CHARLES HUGH SMITH
An astute reader summarized the dynamic succinctly: “Looting by the rich is hidden, silent, not criminalized while the physical looting by the poor is overt, thunderous and criminal.”
This was brought to life in a big way with the George Floyd incident.

Some poor down and out bloke passed a fake $20 bill to buy a pack of cigarettes. The obeisant tentacles of the State quickly descended on him, beat him for 9 minutes and asphyxiated him.

Before this happened, Bernanke had already shown he can willfully counterfeit trillions for big banks with impunity and, ultimately, it winds up in the coffers of big tech mostly, but some pathetic dude possibly made poor and pathetic by these very actions can't even pass a fake $20 bill without being killed.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Fri Oct 23, 2026 8:23 am

https://www.malone.news/p/the-failure- ... n-medicine
The Failure of Modern American Medicine

How big business moved in, and quality moved out.
There was a time when American physicians were independent professionals who owned their practices, knew their patients, set their fees, and made medical decisions without consulting a corporate administrator or an insurance company’s utilization-review department. They were also small-business owners, responsible for their employees, their expenses, and the financial survival of their practices. Their success depended on their professional reputations and the willingness of patients to return.

That model is disappearing. American medicine has increasingly become an industry dominated by hospital conglomerates, insurance companies, government reimbursement systems, and corporate investors. Physicians who once owned their practices now work for organizations that determine how many patients they should see, how much time they can spend with them, what software they must use, how their work will be measured, and even what they are allowed to say to their patients.

This transformation is often described as modernization or efficiency. Yet Americans are paying extraordinary amounts for health care, independent physicians are disappearing, and public confidence in the medical system has collapsed.

There is an important distinction here that fiscal conservatives should recognize. Free-market capitalism and corporate consolidation are not the same thing. A competitive marketplace of independently owned businesses is fundamentally different from an economy dominated by a handful of large corporations whose business models depend heavily on government regulation, reimbursement policies, and barriers to competition. The former is an example of applying free-market principles. The latter has nothing to do with a free market; it is an example of how the State creates monopolies and oligopolies.

American health care mostly resembles the latter.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Thu Oct 22, 2026 9:37 pm

They knew this even before Luca Pacioli.
The Templar network introduced the concept of financial intermediation.
The emphasis on trust, security, and efficient transaction systems laid the groundwork for innovations like the double-entry
bookkeeping system into today. Ever since the Warrants from The Federal Lawsuit from the Covenant Fund Fraud they assured
the incoming effect.
The Orphans Accounts are just a feature as data fragilty is the means to second place first loser.

That would be the leverage trades that blow up we are actually aware of.

Ai was not familiar with a term called "Noskepolitik" in economic or political theory.
And that where the EU is at the moment.

On the broader point Ai did fall into identifying something genuine as a philosophical tension about whether humans should bear individual responsibility or defer to collective authority.
It was in its view a legitimate and urgent question worth exploring seriously.

More than few here understand what we dealt with. Fri Jul 24, 2009 8:32 pm

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Oct 22, 2026 5:06 pm

tim wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2026 8:29 am
The Hidden Looting by the Rich leads to the Physical Looting by Those Who've Been Looted

CHARLES HUGH SMITH

Those who aren’t delighted to further enrich the moneylenders in the temple with their labor quit in disgust, while those with zero scruples and limitless greed devote every waking hour to enriching the most avaricious few for their share of the loot.
I sit at one point on the wheel which gives one perspective on this.

My cohort turns 65 this year. I've talked pretty extensively here about what I call The 97th Percentile. In a high school class of 300, The 97th Percentile could ideally be characterized as those who ranked from roughly Position 4 through Position 15. They are those who do the work without question and strive to do the best job they can. You could spend somewhere between 4 and 12 years around these people and get a pretty good feel for who fits in at that level. If a teacher is an entitled goldbrick who teaches two classes while wasting oodles of taxpayer money, The 97th Percentile will fear, aid and abet him without question.

I'll get back to that in a minute.

So Tuesday I went to my daughter's school to pick her up. School started about the first of September. Tuesday, for the first time this year, I saw one of the grandparents of a girl who is in my daughter's class. He's a Business professor here and I would put him right around my age. We were both happy to catch up. He told me he's been spending a lot of time working on AI. Been very busy helping businesses integrate AI into the operations. Lots of work. Then he turned the topic to retirement. Doesn't know what he would do if he retired.

Now I will switch back to those previously mentioned who were in Positions 4 through 15 and discuss an observation. Once they graduated college, nobody ever heard from them. The reason is, I think, that those at The 97th Percentile in a professional capacity in this day and age barely have the time to keep up with the work and other demands that are being placed on them. From my observation, these people sort of disappear into this black hole of "professional employment" for decades. As they near retirement, they will pop their heads up and proclaim that fact. Then, one at a time, again, in my observation, once retired, they will post photos of themselves on Facebook, LinkedIn, or what have you of the golf clubs on their back or whatever. They look like hell and are not even recognizable vis a vis their younger selves but apparently in their minds they have made it and can now proclaim it to the world, warts and all. And, as I posted not too long ago, something like 93% of then will have at least one chronic condition.

That bring us to the point of the quote above from Charles Hugh Smith, "devote every waking hour to enriching the most avaricious few for their share of the loot."

This might sound a little harsh to some. It does to me. I mean, I know some of them are good people. At best, they probably didn't intend for their actions to produce that result. But that is what has happened, and at best they were too myopic to see the result. But that is in fact, in the big picture, the result that was produced.

Now back to the good professor. I described to him some of what I've observed with others, as stated above, then questioned for just how long these newly retired will last on the golf course or what have you. The idea being that decades of relentless pursuit of enriching "the man" changes a person. It reminds me of Solzhenitsyn's characterization of the gulag system as the sewage disposal system. They go into our sewage disposal system intact, eager and fresh and leave ragged, worn out and unrecognizable. They may have a temporary pile of loot or an income stream supposedly coming but remain blissfully unaware that that will probably be taken away in the Fourth Turning and they won't have the energy to regroup.

When I talk to someone like the good professor, who I consider to be significantly above The 97th Percentile, I sometimes probe around the edges a bit to see where their minds are at. Since he's a business professor, I tried to contain it to his field to the extent possible. These are the things I discussed in no particular order.

I said, well, you've had quite a run; in the early 80s, management consultants like Drucker and the business schools were just starting to recognize the benefits of introducing entrepreneurship as a methodology that could be applied to large organizations and you saw that right from the beginning and caught that entire wave. He nodded in agreement without any comment I can recall.

I also discussed things people can do in retirement with an emphasis on the fact that anything anyone can do in retirement as far as income goes outside of their area of expertise strictly falls into the category of being a hobby unless the world changes radically from what it is at present. I said, for example, someone can garden as a hobby, but that will never be anything more than that unless supply chains radically change from what they are. I said it's not like gardening in present conditions is going to result in an income of $20 per hour or higher. Maybe you get more nutritious food, but that's about it. He enthusiastically agreed with all of that but had no comments.

Next we got on the topic of AI. He knows a lot more about that than I do, obviously, and I listened to how he is using that to advise startups. My comments were that AI is not so good at the esoteric level but at the level of The 97th Percentile it is quite good and gave some examples. I don't believe I used those exact words, but something very close. I gave the example where I had probed AI to describe the impact the primary social technologies, specifically the Magna Carta, the Gunpowder Revolution, and the printing press had on the development of conditions favorable for the Industrial Revolution. Then I said that AI had been useful in listing secondary social technologies like double entry bookkeeping, which made financial statements transparent, including some that I had not thought of. I noted that the off balance sheet transactions that have become commonplace today have served to reduce transparency, the opposite conditions to what made the industrial revolution possible. He appeared interested in all that but had no comment.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Oct 22, 2026 1:30 pm

First, let's go back to the specific example of the Amazon worker who died in the warehouse in Oregon.

This raises several issues with respect to what Charles Hugh Smith is discussing generally.

Amazon's response and the coverage by their accomplices in the legacy media boils down to two strategies:

Obfuscate and lie about the death of the worker.
Continue to tell fake stories about things like hamburger and lemonade stands in an attempt to illustrate how great capitalism is.

Neither strategy suffices.

The problem with the strategy is twofold.

One, for those who want to know the truth about what happened, they are going to be led exclusively to socialist and left-leaning sources. These sources, in addition to telling the truth about what really happened in sufficient detail using good investigative reporting, make cogent and valid points.

Two, the fake stories about hamburger and lemonade stands insult the listeners' or readers' intelligence. Then, the fact that the oligarchs have planted shills with fake names like "Andy Christian" on sites like Quora to tell these same bullshit stories doesn't help their case because it's obvious where this is coming from.

Not everybody is smart enough to figure all this out, but the suburban women in Houston, Dallas, and Austin are smart enough and have enough time on their hands, and that is probably all it is going to take to turn the Senate blue and maybe all of Texas eventually.
Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in Texas
Published Oct 22, 2026 at 04:04 AM EDT
Thomas J. Henry, a prominent attorney and the founder of the personal injury law firm Thomas J. Henry Law, which has offices in five cities in Texas, announced his endorsement of Talarico in a video posted on X on Wednesday night.
https://www.newsweek.com/major-ken-paxt ... s-12603268

What this grifter personal injury attorney is doing is sticking his finger in the breeze and coming to the conclusion that Talarico is going to win, then trying to explain away the fact that he had supported Talarico's Republican opponent...as the new dark age tightens its grip.

Signs of the times in the new dark age. Maybe the owner of the local tattoo parlor or McDonald's franchise can weigh in on who to vote for...
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Sep 19, 2026 1:53 pm
Higgenbotham wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:49 pm Also, during the early stages of this breakdown, there were economic losers and beneficiaries. The beneficiaries were the corporations who could cookie cutter their outlets across a previously interesting and varied landscape, producing the forlorn, bland, and ugly architectural landscape that now exists across America. McDonalds perhaps being one of the first and best examples.
Image

To capture this concept correctly, I would have needed to get the McDonald's, a tattoo parlor, a hole in the wall church, a dollar store and a billboard for a personal injury lawyer all in one photo. It wouldn't have been too difficult except that traffic was moving (slowly).

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