Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

[quote="uncertainty"]T minus 5 years, conservatively, till Radiologists and Pathologists lose their jobs.[/quote]

okay okay 5-10 conservatively. The tech and much of the data is pretty much there but "stuff" happens. Hard to say though with all the exponentials. I guess my point is that pretty soon the only barrier is just the governmental and health care institutions.

[quote="uncertainty"]T minus 5 years, conservatively, till Radiologists and Pathologists lose their jobs.[/quote]

..and a good thing, too!

But Cosmetologists will be employed.. FOREVER.

T minus 5 years, conservatively, till Radiologists and Pathologists lose their jobs.

[quote="psCargile"]Pattern matching . . . probably puts AI on the autism spectrum.[/quote]
At the moment that is being quite generous of you.

Pattern matching . . . probably puts AI on the autism spectrum.

[url]https://youtu.be/_kBlH-DQsEg?t=22m28s[/url]

Tom Scott - 2030 - What Happens Next?

..do watch the whole thing from the beginning once you've seen the end.


Aloha! :) <shaka!>

[quote="psCargile"]I doubt the Singularity will be what we expect. Across species, intelligence is adaptive and suitable for a variety of survival strategies. Our intelligence is one of tool making, unlike the dolphin, or the octopus. What [b][i][u][color=#0000BF]kind of intelligence[/color][/u][/i][/b] do we expect the machine to have?[/quote]

My guess would be "pattern matching" per se.

The tricky bit with "increasing the intelligence" of AI, assuming a "neural net"-like learning method, is the "testing the net by getting meaningful positive/negative feedback from the real world" process, and what "meaningful" means.

I hinge my entire argument against the Singularity on my opinion that humanity is not smart enough, AND not stupid enough, to "hyper-educate" a proto-sentient AI with sufficiently "meaningful" neural training, and THEN to connect such a beast to a physical means to enforce it's newly found "free will" to action.

..yet, I could be wrong. :)

I do see non-sentient very intelligent AIs acting as our infinitely malleable tools, though.

Meaning, we could easily be enslaved, or freed from servitude, by groups within mankind wielding those tools. But servitude TO those tools,.. I think not.


Aloha! :) <shaka!>

I doubt the Singularity will be what we expect. Across species, intelligence is adaptive and suitable for a variety of survival strategies. Our intelligence is one of tool making, unlike the dolphin, or the octopus. What kind of intelligence do we expect the machine to have?

[quote="psCargile"]And if there are two or more AI "overlords" competing for dominance. . . .[/quote]

The "second" AI won't be able to catch up with the "first" one, due to the exponential nature of the "increase in intelligence" of "singularity precursor" AI's.

..obviously.

And if the "second" AI has inherently better programming than the "first", such that it can overcome the other's head start, then it will VERY quickly "overpower" the "first" AI, and is even more likely to fly into "Overlord AI" territory ahead of all its competitors.

But, in any case, the flight into the Singularity will be so fast that mankind will probably not have time to finish a half eaten Snickers Bar before "it's all over".

..and that is why I'm not a great believer in the Singularity happening,.. as I don't see mankind being smart enough, and stupid enough, to connect up potential "singularity precursor" AI's to physical and data systems of sufficient power to allow the exponentially explosive intelligence increase to happen, leaving us with anything more than a "contained Djinn".

Then again,.. djinn HAVE been known to escape...


Aloha! <shaka!>

And if there are two or more AI "overlords" competing for dominance. . . .