Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

by **John** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:48 am

TheDecemberRains wrote: > I'm a little slow sometimes John. Could I get you to elaborate on
> why this couldn't happen in a crisis war? At this point I think
> I'm more interested in the angle you are coming from. Also can we
> take a moment to recognize how amazingly awesome the move by
> Russia against Napoleon was. Up there with the Trojan Horse it
> ranks as one of history's "greatest hits" of military
> tactics.

First off, remember that the Trojan Horse is a myth, while Napoleon's
invasion of Russia actually occurred.

As Fishy suggests, a non-crisis war is rational, directed by
politicians, usually supported only half-heartedly by the public.

A crisis war is irrational, driven by the emotions of the people to
the point where the "rational" decisions of the politicians are
irrelevant, except insofar as they reflect the emotions of the people.
And those emotions are driven by a core determination that the life of
an individual has no value, and that the only things that matter are
survival of the society and its way of life. Given those emotions,
it's hard to see how an entire army could feign defeat.

by **FishbellykanakaDude** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:34 am

TheDecemberRains wrote:
John wrote:
TheDecemberRains wrote: > Has there ever been a crisis war where a side used a feigned
> defeat to turn the tides? I couldn't find one. I mean if you are
> fighting to the end why not right?
I believe that sort of strategy is frequently used in battles -- where
an army retreats, and then circles around and ambushes the enemy army.

At the war level, this really couldn't happen in a generational
crisis war, but something like it could happen in a non-crisis
war. The premier example is Napoleon's invasion of Russia, which
was a crisis war for France, but a non-crisis war for Russia.
The Russians abandoned Moscow and let the French army gorge
itself and fall to pieces.

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... olstoy.htm
I'm a little slow sometimes John. Could I get you to elaborate on why this couldn't happen in a crisis war? At this point I think I'm more interested in the angle you are coming from. ...

A retreat-pincer (encirclement) maneuver is the tactic of the "non-crazed" (not desperate) combatant.

The Crisis combatant is "crazed". They think they can win frontally, as they are "superior" (or "God protected").

The Non-Crisis combatant is "rational". They need to be "smart" as they realize they might lose.

The Mongols "won" a huge empire because they were "simply hunting (humans)" to sustain themselves. The "Existential Crisis" peoples that the Mongols conquered were so shocked that their world was ending that they panicked and either "prematurely" capitulated or frontally assaulted their enemy and succumbed to encirclement and annihilation.

Aloha nui gangies!

<shaka!>

by **TheDecemberRains** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:23 am

John wrote:
TheDecemberRains wrote: > Has there ever been a crisis war where a side used a feigned
> defeat to turn the tides? I couldn't find one. I mean if you are
> fighting to the end why not right?
I believe that sort of strategy is frequently used in battles -- where
an army retreats, and then circles around and ambushes the enemy army.

At the war level, this really couldn't happen in a generational
crisis war, but something like it could happen in a non-crisis
war. The premier example is Napoleon's invasion of Russia, which
was a crisis war for France, but a non-crisis war for Russia.
The Russians abandoned Moscow and let the French army gorge
itself and fall to pieces.

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... olstoy.htm

I'm a little slow sometimes John. Could I get you to elaborate on why this couldn't happen in a crisis war? At this point I think I'm more interested in the angle you are coming from. Also can we take a moment to recognize how amazingly awesome the move by Russia against Napoleon was. Up there with the Trojan Horse it ranks as one of history's "greatest hits" of military tactics.

by **John** » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:27 pm

TheDecemberRains wrote: > Has there ever been a crisis war where a side used a feigned
> defeat to turn the tides? I couldn't find one. I mean if you are
> fighting to the end why not right?

I believe that sort of strategy is frequently used in battles -- where
an army retreats, and then circles around and ambushes the enemy army.

At the war level, this really couldn't happen in a generational
crisis war, but something like it could happen in a non-crisis
war. The premier example is Napoleon's invasion of Russia, which
was a crisis war for France, but a non-crisis war for Russia.
The Russians abandoned Moscow and let the French army gorge
itself and fall to pieces.

** Book I / Chapter 5 -- Leo Tolstoy's War and Peace
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... olstoy.htm

by **Tom Mazanec** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 6:04 pm

TheDecemberRains wrote:Has there ever been a crisis war where a side used a feigned defeat to turn the tides? I couldn't find one. I mean if you are fighting to the end why not right?

I don't know if this counts, but Japan held back most of its military supplies in 1945, expecting to use them on the Invasion. A couple mushroom clouds changed that.

by **TheDecemberRains** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:02 pm

Ultimately war a war is won when the enemy loses their will to fight. As much as war is depicted to be about guns and death it is ultimately psychological. This is in line with the approach of winning without fighting. Its about breaking your enemies will before the fight begins. The implication of this fact is that you have to, to the best of your ability, become your enemy and see the world how they see it. Understand everything you can about what makes them tick and how they view reality and what will happen. From there you systematically go about shattering their notion of what reality is. You feed them a picture of their reality and then make them pay. You do this enough times and fast enough and rather than grow and adapt they will simply give up. Violence is just one means of achieving this.

by **TheDecemberRains** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:17 pm

Has there ever been a crisis war where a side used a feigned defeat to turn the tides? I couldn't find one. I mean if you are fighting to the end why not right?

by **TheDecemberRains** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:02 pm

CrouchingTiger wrote:It kind of makes sense that china is communist. Because it fits well with their view of the world. Communism is based on the assumption that we live in a static unchanging world and resources can be planned and allocated accordingly. china views the world as static and on path to returning how it was and that they can just take a little bit of western tech and slap it on the ol' china model. This cannot work. The reason they got beat has not changed and they have not recognized this. They don't want to recognize that we live in a dynamic growing and changing world. That dictates can no longer be handed down to people and they have to deal with it. They don't want to recognize it because it is comfortable to their ego to assume (much like the election of trump) that it was some fluke and the world is going back to the way it "should be". Because implicit in recognizing this is the acknowledgement that they were wrong and their reality reflects that. china looks to the past but America is probably one of the only nations in this world that truly looks to and defines itself by its future. The ever expanding frontier of the universe and human knowledge. As much as people want to call America racist it is probably one of the only countries that you can honestly say that no one gives a shit where you came from, they care about where you are going.

I couldn't agree more! While everyone needs a plan to do anything there is a stark difference between the entrepneur of capitalism and the bureaucrat of communism. By being more creative the US has a massive edge on china. The more assumptions china holds on the us that we can break makes their job that much harder. It makes it harder to make and stick to plans when your opponent could do anything. Not to mention there is the underlying fear they are going to throw something else at you that you haven't even thought of. Their brittle plans will crumple under such complexities. Not to mention plans must come from the top down which is control they time after time have shown they won't give up.

by **CrouchingTiger** » Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:40 pm

It kind of makes sense that china is communist. Because it fits well with their view of the world. Communism is based on the assumption that we live in a static unchanging world and resources can be planned and allocated accordingly. china views the world as static and on path to returning how it was and that they can just take a little bit of western tech and slap it on the ol' china model. This cannot work. The reason they got beat has not changed and they have not recognized this. They don't want to recognize that we live in a dynamic growing and changing world. That dictates can no longer be handed down to people and they have to deal with it. They don't want to recognize it because it is comfortable to their ego to assume (much like the election of trump) that it was some fluke and the world is going back to the way it "should be". Because implicit in recognizing this is the acknowledgement that they were wrong and their reality reflects that. china looks to the past but America is probably one of the only nations in this world that truly looks to and defines itself by its future. The ever expanding frontier of the universe and human knowledge. As much as people want to call America racist it is probably one of the only countries that you can honestly say that no one gives a shit where you came from, they care about where you are going.

by **Trevor** » Sat Dec 30, 2017 8:45 am

John wrote:
Thank you for trying that "experiment" and for posting that
information. The information is really quite valuable and even
frightening and depressing, because it tears the mask away and reveals
what's really going on.

We can really see where things are going. People are always telling
me that the Chinese won't attack for some "logical" reason, like, why
bother since China will be #1 by 2050 anyway. There is no logic
involved here. The Chinese are arrogant, they believe that they are
better than anyone, they believe that they will defeat America and
everyone else, and they're like an emotional time bomb waiting to
explode.

You've gotten information about their attitude towards indigenous Hong
Kongers and Taiwanese. But the original question you asked me had to
do with their attitude toward Americans. Did you get any sense of
that?

Perhaps it's time for you to take up the second part of your
assignment. (You know, the part about asking a Chinese girl out on a
date.)

From what I've been reading, I've seen the same thing. I'm well aware that opinions on the internet, of all places, should not be taken at face value, but there is a rather troubling trend. Many of them absolutely believe that they could crush us at any time they choose. Comments like: "any time we want, we can wipe out your navy and you can't do a damn thing to stop us" "The first Island chain is ours and it won't be long until the second one is too." Those are just some of the more polite ones.

They think we're weak and feeble, and that all it'll take is a single kick to bring everything crashing down.

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