Guest wrote: ↑
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:10 pm
No, a couple of submarines would not be enough to neutralize the Chinese navy. The war might start in The Philippines, which means America could help.
I few submarines would prevent movement of transports. Men and materiel are expensive and barring a grave emergency no one is going to risk them going to the bottom of the ocean. It takes too long to replace these days.
But what if this was going on when the Chinese were attacking Taiwan and Japan? I don't know how much of a priority the mouth of Manila would be.
As if China has the ability to fight a three front war. Make that four because I doubt South Korea could sit out something like that. They'd know they were next. Or five since the US would certainly get involved. Maybe six because India might decide to poke the dragon while it's preoccupied.
And you know what the first step would be? Stopping all trade with China, especially oil. China's reserves aren't enough to last more than a couple of months and only Chinese owned vessels would consider delivering in such a state. Oops. And all the other ships delivering raw materials and food will stop. Oops.
What if they decided to drop a small nuclear bomb on Manila? I think the current admin would surrender.
What if alien space bats come flying out of my butt? What if the moon turns to blood? What if King Arthur flies by on a winged unicorn swinging Excalibur? If you're going to posit fiction you might as well go for the gold.
No country is going to use nuclear weapons unless there is an existential threat. Going first lays you open to nuclear retaliation from other states as well as worldwide opprobrium. The Philippines could never be an existential threat because it has no way to project force beyond it's own borders.
The way you talk, China is the biggest paper tiger on the face of the earth. While the current Chinese military does lack combat experience, they are fast learners. You are grossly underestimating the Chinese. I think you keep failing to see that sheer numbers and a willingness to lose tens of millions of soldiers is what China does best.
China is the #2 military in the world right now with a desire to move to #1. It's capabilities are increasing year by year and it's a much bigger threat than Russia. However, it's weapons are mostly untested in use so it's still be seen how well they may function in combat. The largest problem is experience which for the most part China doesn't have. Training is good, but it's not a substitute for actually doing the job. And China is out of the throwing millions of barely armed peasants into the grinder business. It moved to a professional Western style military years ago.
Enjoy your retirement...
I certainly intend to though it can't come fast enough. I will raise my glass in toast to you as I watch the sun go down over the ocean. While I eat sizzling sissig and crispy pata.