Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by John » Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:12 pm

** 05-Jun-2020 World View: Quality
Guest wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:12 pm
> That is the most childish response I have ever read on this
> site. The quality of posts on this site has really declined from
> it was a few years ago.
Actually, the quality of the posts in the last few weeks has been very
high, with a number of very sophisticated analyses of what's going on
with China and the world.

And Xeraphim1's response looks pretty reasonable to me.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Guest » Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:12 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:36 am
Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:10 pm


No, a couple of submarines would not be enough to neutralize the Chinese navy. The war might start in The Philippines, which means America could help.
I few submarines would prevent movement of transports. Men and materiel are expensive and barring a grave emergency no one is going to risk them going to the bottom of the ocean. It takes too long to replace these days.
But what if this was going on when the Chinese were attacking Taiwan and Japan? I don't know how much of a priority the mouth of Manila would be.
As if China has the ability to fight a three front war. Make that four because I doubt South Korea could sit out something like that. They'd know they were next. Or five since the US would certainly get involved. Maybe six because India might decide to poke the dragon while it's preoccupied.

And you know what the first step would be? Stopping all trade with China, especially oil. China's reserves aren't enough to last more than a couple of months and only Chinese owned vessels would consider delivering in such a state. Oops. And all the other ships delivering raw materials and food will stop. Oops.
What if they decided to drop a small nuclear bomb on Manila? I think the current admin would surrender.
What if alien space bats come flying out of my butt? What if the moon turns to blood? What if King Arthur flies by on a winged unicorn swinging Excalibur? If you're going to posit fiction you might as well go for the gold.

No country is going to use nuclear weapons unless there is an existential threat. Going first lays you open to nuclear retaliation from other states as well as worldwide opprobrium. The Philippines could never be an existential threat because it has no way to project force beyond it's own borders.
The way you talk, China is the biggest paper tiger on the face of the earth. While the current Chinese military does lack combat experience, they are fast learners. You are grossly underestimating the Chinese. I think you keep failing to see that sheer numbers and a willingness to lose tens of millions of soldiers is what China does best.
China is the #2 military in the world right now with a desire to move to #1. It's capabilities are increasing year by year and it's a much bigger threat than Russia. However, it's weapons are mostly untested in use so it's still be seen how well they may function in combat. The largest problem is experience which for the most part China doesn't have. Training is good, but it's not a substitute for actually doing the job. And China is out of the throwing millions of barely armed peasants into the grinder business. It moved to a professional Western style military years ago.
Enjoy your retirement...
I certainly intend to though it can't come fast enough. I will raise my glass in toast to you as I watch the sun go down over the ocean. While I eat sizzling sissig and crispy pata.
That is the most childish response I have ever read on this site. The quality of posts on this site has really declined from it was a few years ago.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Xeraphim1 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:36 am

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:10 pm


No, a couple of submarines would not be enough to neutralize the Chinese navy. The war might start in The Philippines, which means America could help.
I few submarines would prevent movement of transports. Men and materiel are expensive and barring a grave emergency no one is going to risk them going to the bottom of the ocean. It takes too long to replace these days.
But what if this was going on when the Chinese were attacking Taiwan and Japan? I don't know how much of a priority the mouth of Manila would be.
As if China has the ability to fight a three front war. Make that four because I doubt South Korea could sit out something like that. They'd know they were next. Or five since the US would certainly get involved. Maybe six because India might decide to poke the dragon while it's preoccupied.

And you know what the first step would be? Stopping all trade with China, especially oil. China's reserves aren't enough to last more than a couple of months and only Chinese owned vessels would consider delivering in such a state. Oops. And all the other ships delivering raw materials and food will stop. Oops.
What if they decided to drop a small nuclear bomb on Manila? I think the current admin would surrender.
What if alien space bats come flying out of my butt? What if the moon turns to blood? What if King Arthur flies by on a winged unicorn swinging Excalibur? If you're going to posit fiction you might as well go for the gold.

No country is going to use nuclear weapons unless there is an existential threat. Going first lays you open to nuclear retaliation from other states as well as worldwide opprobrium. The Philippines could never be an existential threat because it has no way to project force beyond it's own borders.
The way you talk, China is the biggest paper tiger on the face of the earth. While the current Chinese military does lack combat experience, they are fast learners. You are grossly underestimating the Chinese. I think you keep failing to see that sheer numbers and a willingness to lose tens of millions of soldiers is what China does best.
China is the #2 military in the world right now with a desire to move to #1. It's capabilities are increasing year by year and it's a much bigger threat than Russia. However, it's weapons are mostly untested in use so it's still be seen how well they may function in combat. The largest problem is experience which for the most part China doesn't have. Training is good, but it's not a substitute for actually doing the job. And China is out of the throwing millions of barely armed peasants into the grinder business. It moved to a professional Western style military years ago.
Enjoy your retirement...
I certainly intend to though it can't come fast enough. I will raise my glass in toast to you as I watch the sun go down over the ocean. While I eat sizzling sissig and crispy pata.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Guest » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:15 am

America is surrendering to mob rule. if Trump fails to be re-elected, America will fall. The dollar will be gone by the end of the year. The racist hypocrisy of the mob is beyond belief.

My mother's passing was the most traumatic experience of my trauma filled life, but watching my country collapse now, I thank God that she did not live long enough to experience this.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by mooreupp » Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:11 pm

I do think China's military will adapt quick, but agree a military occuption of The Phillipeans in unlikely. Maybe as part of a wider war they are attacked and maybe bombs dropped and mass casualties. It's unlikely they directly stay there long though (although I suppose setting up a pupet government possible).

Long and short if it is there is no good place to be, only less risky ones. Im still in a medium large size American city and am having trouble deciding to leave due to family concerns. I know dragging my feet here is probably a mistake though.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Guest » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:10 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:57 pm
Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm

I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.
To occupy it you have to get there first. The US spent months moving forces to adjacent countries from which it could attack by land. Even supplying was expensive and that was with the ability to unload in secure ports. And the US has better doctrine and experience in this than any other country. China? They'd be making it up as they went because they have no institutional knowledge of how to do it.

People keep failing to look at the logistics.

No, a couple of submarines would not be enough to neutralize the Chinese navy. The war might start in The Philippines, which means America could help. But what if this was going on when the Chinese were attacking Taiwan and Japan? I don't know how much of a priority the mouth of Manila would be.

What if they decided to drop a small nuclear bomb on Manila? I think the current admin would surrender.

The way you talk, China is the biggest paper tiger on the face of the earth. While the current Chinese military does lack combat experience, they are fast learners. You are grossly underestimating the Chinese. I think you keep failing to see that sheer numbers and a willingness to lose tens of millions of soldiers is what China does best.

Enjoy your retirement...

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Xeraphim1 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:57 pm

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm

I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.
To occupy it you have to get there first. The US spent months moving forces to adjacent countries from which it could attack by land. Even supplying was expensive and that was with the ability to unload in secure ports. And the US has better doctrine and experience in this than any other country. China? They'd be making it up as they went because they have no institutional knowledge of how to do it.

People keep failing to look at the logistics.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Xeraphim1 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:51 pm

Guest wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 11:06 am

The Filipinos gave up food security decades ago to build apartment blocks and shopping malls. I have been to the Philippines. The Chinese could starve them dead in a weeks easily. Also water shortages and untreated illness would kill them quickly.

How many Filipinos are going to take to the hills? Do you really think the average person there can live off the land? The Chinese could burn most of the cities and occupy the rest. Wait while the population dies off. They will definitely keep the young women for their own men. China is running out of them. After all, Mars needs women. You have no idea how horrible this war will be. You really don't.

You're the one spouting off with the Rambo fantasies, not me.
The two have nothing to do with each other. It's isn't as though they're competing for the same resources. China is actually worse off since much of it's farm land is declining in quantity due to building while quality is dropping due to pollution of both land and water. That's without mention persistent disease. China lost more than half it's hogs due to a swine flu outbreak. Over the past decade it's had to cull tens of millions of poultry due to avian flu. And let's not mention how the younger generations expect to have meat in their diet.

How are all those Chinese soldiers going to get to the Philippines? Walk? They need to be brought by ship to a port which will be at least a day's sail each way plus loading and unloading. While the Philippine military is currently ineffective outside it's own borders, it is also improving and has a defense treaty with the US. A couple of submarines in the South China Sea would drastically reduce the ability of China to run any kind of operations. But lets say China can move a couple of brigades to the Philippines, how will they be supplied? Looting the populace? No modern military does that because it disperses soldiers and makes them vulnerable. Did I mention all the guns in the Philippines? That means supplies have to be brought. By ship. While being hunted from air and sea.

More to the point, WHY would China ever invade the Philippines? What gain would they get out of it? The Chinese government isn't stupid and the costs of such an invasion would be much higher than anything they loot out of it. Taiwan could be a possibility due to the importance the CCP has put on it for 70 years. The Philippines? Nope.

You're the one spinning fantasies without having anything to base them on. A country doing something economically, strategically and logistically stupid. And the reason given is... because.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Guest » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:21 pm

Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:00 pm
John wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:46 am
** 04-Jun-2020 World View: Chinese occupation
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
> It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to
> hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese
> forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even
> have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an
> occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not
> just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless
> all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear
> war in which case China would have other problems.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
Taiwan is a possibility because for the CCP it's a face saving exercise. They be willing to burn the island down to the ground if that's what it takes and accept the international consequences. Even then it wouldn't be easy to actually invade. That's one of the reasons China has been building amphibious assault ships lately but even those have limitations. Mostly they's need to use transports which would take a few hours to cross the straits each way and need a port to unload in.

Japan is a different story. It's military is the strongest in Asia and the best equipped and Japan is much further away. Those transports would be sitting ducks until Japan's navy and air force were neutralized. While China's military is getting better rapidly, it isn't that good.

Amphibious warfare is hard. The US has the best doctrines and training of any country and even the US would be very hard pressed to carry out an invasion these days.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
I think John was asking about occupying a country, not invading it. The US had little trouble invading Iraq and Afghanistan; occupation has been hell for the US and everyone else there.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Xeraphim1 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:00 pm

John wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:46 am
** 04-Jun-2020 World View: Chinese occupation
Xeraphim1 wrote:
Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:39 am
> It's not delusion. Do you know how many soldiers it would take to
> hold down that many people? Do you understand that all Chinese
> forces would need to be supplied by air or sea? China doesn't even
> have the ability to move enough soldiers to the Philippines for an
> occupation. And that's not including the likelihood of action not
> just by the US but by Korean, Japan and possibly Taiwan. Unless
> all of those had fallen but that would almost require a nuclear
> war in which case China would have other problems.
What about occupying Taiwan and Japan?
Taiwan is a possibility because for the CCP it's a face saving exercise. They be willing to burn the island down to the ground if that's what it takes and accept the international consequences. Even then it wouldn't be easy to actually invade. That's one of the reasons China has been building amphibious assault ships lately but even those have limitations. Mostly they's need to use transports which would take a few hours to cross the straits each way and need a port to unload in.

Japan is a different story. It's military is the strongest in Asia and the best equipped and Japan is much further away. Those transports would be sitting ducks until Japan's navy and air force were neutralized. While China's military is getting better rapidly, it isn't that good.

Amphibious warfare is hard. The US has the best doctrines and training of any country and even the US would be very hard pressed to carry out an invasion these days.

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