Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:36 pm

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: Iran in Syria

Lindsey Graham was interviewed on Fox News this evening, after he met
with Trump for two hours.

He says that Iran is moving troops to take over the oil fields in
Syria's northeast, and he recommended to Trump to send in American
soldiers to protect the oil fields.

I wanted to report this because I haven't mentioned Iran so far in my
previous reports.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:37 pm

** 15-Oct-2019 World View: The Kurds vs the Turks and Syrians

utahbob wrote:> ** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria

> John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The
> “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that
> has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy
> media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists
> “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a
> heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into
> “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry
> company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and
> love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with
> the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man”
> for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will
> make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way
> forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey
> proper.

> The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved
> into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on
> how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and
> best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the
> world.


Thanks for that "on the ground" information. Most news reports are
buried in one ideology or another, it's hard to discern the truth,
but I've known you long enough to know that what you're saying
is the actual situation.

The information you're providing explains why Turkey is getting along
with an internal population of 300,000 Kurds, but is still invading
Syria to eliminate PKK/YPG Kurds. However, reports indicate that it's
the Syrian Arabs in the Syrian National Army (SNA), which is allied
with Turkey, that really hate the Kurds.

The news today is that the Syrian army is heading north to separate
the Kurdish SDF from Turkish forces, and Russia is sending special
forces into the area to separate Syrian forces from Kurdish forces and
Turkish forces.

So perhaps the 50 American soldiers who were withdrawn from border
posts are now being replaced by Russian soldiers in border posts.
Whether this is happening may become clearer as the chaos ends. As of
now, Turkey's invasion is raging on.

Another implication is that Russia and Turkey are not headed for war
with each other, which I speculated about a few days ago. As I wrote
at the time, Russia and Turkey are historically mortal enemies, and
both are in a generational Crisis era, and so they've been going to
great lengths, through the "Astana process," to make sure that there's
no miscalculation that can lead to war.

The US and EU are threatening harsh sanctions against Turkey if the
invasion doesn't end soon. At the same time, Turkey's forces are
being blocked by Russian forces. The result is that Turkey has
become almost completely isolated. Erdogan has been very skillful
at playing the US and Russia against each other, but that's not
possible at the present time.


Guest wrote:> But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian
> Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics
> have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?

> Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the
> Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester
> Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South
> Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually
> involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia
> and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars
> raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia
> troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the
> 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia
> be deep into a GC?


Russia's last generational crisis war was the Russian Revolution.
The other wars that you mention are non-crisis wars.

With regard to wars in "two phases," that's how many non-crisis wars
occur. The two sides clash, and have a truce and a peace agreement.
The peace agreement collapses and there's a new clash, and the cycle
repeats, alternating between periods of violence and negotiated peace.
Each episode of war is more violent than the preceding one, until
finally it spins into a full-scale generational crisis war.

One problem with analyzing Russia is that it's so big that it's
on several timelines.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by utahbob » Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:48 am

** 13-Oct-2019 World View: Turkey's disorganized invasion of Syria
John, When people talk about the Kurds, they are mistaken. The “Kurds” are not a monolithic group. That is a general title that has many “diverse” groups and that term is used by the lazy media. I dealt with the “Kurds.” There are radical communists “Kurds” that will snuff out the Islamic/Wahhabi “Kurds” in a heartbeat. Many are armed families that are organized into “battalions” that would be a glorified light infantry company/platoon in a western army. A tiny few hate the Turks and love killing them. Many live in Turkey and have no problems with the Turks. Like the Afghans, they will align with the big “man” for self-preservation of the tribe/ethnic group. The Turks will make nice with the “Kurds” for now; it is the least bloody way forward, since the “Kurds” make a sizeable minority in Turkey proper.
The big issue that has to be dealt with before Syria can be carved into zones of power is ISIS. Knowing the history of that region on how problems hammered out in the past, it will not be pretty and best the US walk away. The US cannot “fix” that area of the world.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest » Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:13 am

China Wants Tariffs Cut to Enable $50 Billion Imports From U.S.


The Chinese will never change....

Trump negotiates in good faith with people who have no concept of honor at all. I hope the trade war resumes. The Chinese were hurting more than we were.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:26 pm

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: The Great Man Theory of History
David Horn wrote:> Well, this didn't work the way you though it would, did it? It
> wasn't the 50 observers that were yanked, but the entire 1,000
> Green Berets. Now, the Kurds work for the Russians and the ISIS
> prisoners are already on the loose. Nice play!


Yeah, well, if you had had your way, then US forces would be involved
in a major war with Turkey. Of course, then you would be posting
messages criticizing Trump for being so stupid as to do what you had
been suggesting, and getting the US into another war like the Iraq
war. I've seen this cynical game played over and over.

Actually, it's working exactly how I thought it would. Erdogan
has been threatening an invasion for years, and his threats have
become even more strident after ISIS was ejected from Raqqa. He made
it clear that the invasion was coming, no matter what Trump did.

There was no way that Turkey would for long accept 60,000 armed Kurds
on its border. What's happening now had to happen.

You have a particular view of the world that I reject completely, and
it's not even an ideological view, since it's shared by both Democrats
and Republicans.

Obama has called it "The Great Man Theory of History." It's the
belief that Washington rules the world, that everything in the world
happens because the president of the United States did something or
didn't do something, or who said something or didn't say something.

Obama and his acolytes used to believe that theory, and that view was
adopted by Kaiser and Howe, who thought that Obama would transform the
country and the world through his policies, thereby going through the
Fourth Turning without a war.

But Obama had an "Annus horribilis" in 2013, when it was clear that
his entire list of dozens of promises and policies, from controlling
the tides to closing Guantánamo, were a complete and total failure.

In an interview in 2014, Obama admitted failure: "I just wanted to add
one thing to that business about the Great Man Theory Of History. The
President of the United States cannot remake our society, and that’s
probably a good thing. Not probably. It’s definitely a good thing."

So Obama endorsed the Generational Dynamics view of history, though
without realizing that he was doing so.

The "Great Man Theory Of History" is your view, and it's a view that
is completely rejected by Generational Dynamics, and is repeatedly
disproved by events. Great events happen because of the flow of
populations and generations, and happen irrespective of what the
President of the United States says or doesn't say, does or doesn't
do.

So when Erdogan says for a year that "I'm going to invade Syria and
set up a buffer zone," and he's strongly supported by Turkey's
politicians (including opposition politicians except for the Kurdish
political party), then you can be absolutely certain that, at some
point, Erdogan is going to invade Syria and set up a buffer zone.

So that's what I thought would happen, and that's what's happening.
So it is working out the way I thought it would.

So now the next question is whether Turkey's invasion will lead to war
between Turkey and Russia, which is the question that I raised in a
posting a few days ago. The news today is that al-Assad's army is
headed for the northeast, presumably backed up by Russia. Turkey and
Russia are both deep into generational Crisis eras, they've fought
numerous wars with each other, and they're headed for new war with
absolute certainty, at some point in the immediate or not-to-distant
future.
David Horn wrote:> This has only started!


Yes of course it has. Generational Dynamics has predicted a major
Mideast war for years. Generational Dynamics is always 100% correct.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest » Mon Oct 14, 2019 12:22 pm

But the Muslim population was quite small during the Russian Revolution. Today the situation is different. The demographics have changed greatly. Wouldn't that affect GD?

Also, Russia has been fighting major wars on the territory of the Ex-Soviet Union since 1992: Armenia, Moldova, Trans-Dniester Republic, Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Ingusetia, North and South Ossetia, Dagestan, etc. The wars in these places have usually involved two phases decades apart, for example: Georgia-Abkhazia and South Ossetia 1991-1993, then again in 2008. Chechnya wars raged 1993 (via proxies) -1997, and then 1999-until now. Russia troops also fought in the Central Asian Republics in the 1990s. Some of these were major wars (Chechnya). How can Russia be deep into a GC?

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:30 am

** 14-Oct-2019 World View: War between Turkey and Russia

Guest wrote:> Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so
> what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the
> thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground
> forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has
> been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every
> level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale
> is poor.

> And here is the wild card:

> "By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript
> army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population." Ethnographers:
> Russia will have a Muslim majority 'within our lifetime.'

> http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08 ... lim-russia

> I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian
> ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic
> Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in
> Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia
> allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to
> protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit
> for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.


This is a very interesting analysis. My comments have to do with
the fact that it's too logical.

A generational crisis war is raw emotion. Imperial Japan bombed Pearl
Harbor even though the US was five times as large as Japan, and it
was obvious that Japan would eventually lose the war.

The news today is that the Kurdish SDF has made an agreement with
Bashar al-Assad, and the Syrian army, presumably backed by Russia,
will occupy northeast Syria along the border with Turkey. Presumably,
this will stop the invasion, though I don't see how.

Turkey and Russia are in generational Crisis eras, have had many
generational crisis wars in the past, and they hate each other.
This means that the situation is ripe for situations where one
clash escalates to a larger clash, leading to war. This is exactly
how world wars start, as I've described in the past.

The information you've provided about Russia's army and population
would not prevent these escalations from occurring, since the
escalations would be emotional and organic. But what you've written
shows how the war might proceed in Russia. For example, Russia's last
generational crisis war involved the Boshevik Revolution, civil war
between Stalin and Trotsky, and the Ukraine Holomodor famine. All of
these civil war elements will be repeated, and would be triggered by a
war between Turkey and Russia.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Mon Oct 14, 2019 11:26 am

** 14-Oct-2019 100% certain

zzazz wrote:> There you have, the GD analysis of Turkey's invasion of
> Syria---maybe it will be a big war, or maybe it will be a little
> war. Same as every other GD analtsis once you strip out the
> BS.


I realize simple logic is way above you're pay grade, but the "big war"
is 100% certain, with only the scenario being uncertain. Try googling
the phrase "100% certain," so that you can learn what it means.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by zzazz » Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:59 am

There you have, the GD analysis of Turkey's invasion of Syria---maybe it will be a big war, or maybe it will be a little war. Same as every other GD analtsis once you strip out the BS.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by Guest » Sun Oct 13, 2019 10:54 pm

Russia is weak compared to Turkey. It has nuclear weapons, but so what? Using atomic weapons would spell the end of Russia, and the thieves running Russia don't want that to happen. Russia's ground forces are in the middle of modernization, but the process has been delayed by corruption and incompetence at every level. Russia's soldiers are still half trained conscripts. Morale is poor.


And here is the wild card:

"By 2015, Muslims will make up a majority of Russia's conscript army, and by 2020 a fifth of the population."
Ethnographers: Russia will have a Muslim majority “within our lifetime”.

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/08 ... lim-russia

I doubt the Chechens, Ingush, and Tatars serving in the Russian ranks will stay loyal to Moscow. They are treated badly by ethnic Russians. I have seen first hand how badly Muslims are treated in Russian Federation. I don't see Muslim minorities in Russia allowing their sons to be used as cannon fodder in order to protect drug addicted and alcoholic Russian youth who are unfit for military service. Nor, do I suspect, do the Turks.

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