by DaKardii » Mon May 20, 2024 9:51 pm
Did the 21st Century's Franz Ferdinand Moment Happen Yesterday?
Yesterday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed when the helicopter he was traveling on fell out of the sky and crashed to the ground. So far, Iran has treated this as a tragic accident. However, conspiracy theories from the far left, the far right, and radical Islamists are circulating, claiming that the crash was in fact caused by intentional sabotage. But if so, by who? Several countries have been named as possible suspects, but the most frequently cited country is Israel.
Should Iran change its tune and start blaming Israel for Raisi's death, things would have the potential to get very ugly, very fast. Not only would this (almost certainly) lead to an all-out war between Iran and Israel, which in turn would escalate into a wider conflict which would likely light the entire Middle East on fire, but should Iranian become paranoid enough in making its accusations, it could lead to another, potentially even more dangerous conflict... in the Caucasus.
Now you must be asking an important question: "Why the Caucasus?" Well, at the time of his death Raisi was returning from a diplomatic trip to Azerbaijan. Earlier in the day he had met with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, where they jointly inaugurated two hydroelectric dams on the Azeri side of the Iranian-Azeri border. No doubt there were Azeri troops in the immediate area where the helicopter was parked at some point during the visit; after all they (presumably) are tasked with protecting foreign leaders as they set foot on their country's soil.
Now you must be asking another important question: "What does that have to do with Israel?" Well, not only is Azerbaijan one of the few Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel's right to exist, but it also has close diplomatic and military relations with Israel, as well as a historically unstable relationship with Iran. Put those together, and you really shouldn't find yourself surprised if Iran accuses Azerbaijan of being an accomplice to plot against Raisi's life. Should Iran go there, it would (almost certainly) lead to an all-out war between Iran and Azerbaijan.
In the event of an Iranian-Azeri war, there are two players who could potentially escalate it into a global conflict: Turkey and Armenia. First, let's talk about Turkey. Turkey is in a mutual defense pact with Azerbaijan, and should war break out it could easily invoke that treaty to enter the conflict on Azerbaijan's side. Turkey is also a member of NATO, and should the conflict escalate into a Turkish-Iranian war it could easily invoke that treaty to drag the United States, Canada, and most of Europe into it. Now, let's talk about Armenia. Armenia as we all (hopefully) know has had a historically hostile relationship with Azerbaijan due to their competing claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. Not even four years ago, they fought an all-out war over that territory, which ended in an Azeri victory. Conversely, Armenia has had historically warm diplomatic ties with Iran due to their mutual mistrust of Azerbaijan. In the event of an Iranian-Azeri war, Iran would (almost certainly) encourage Armenia to attack Azerbaijan as revenge for its loss of the previous war, knowing full well that it could spark a chain reaction which would result in Armenia also being at war with not just Turkey but the entirety of NATO. Now here's where things get really ugly. Armenia is a member of the CSTO, which means it is in a mutual defense pact with Russia. Armenia's observance of the treaty is currently suspended due to a deterioration in Russo-Armenian relations related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, however it is still technically a member. While Russia has historically elected to stay out of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, should NATO be dragged into the Iranian-Azeri war and then go to war with Armenia it would have a very strong incentive to honor the treaty despite Armenia's suspended participation. Because the alternative would be a NATO-dominated Caucasus, which Russia consider to be a serious national security threat.
To summarize, the death of Iran's President Raisi has the potential to spark a major war, possibly even World War III. In the absolute worst case scenario, it could lead to a chain reaction reminiscent of what the world witnessed in the summer of 1914, with the end result being the very hypothetical war the world has feared the most since 1945: NATO vs. Russia.
When I say this, I am not being hyperbolic. Did the 21st Century's Franz Ferdinand Moment Happen Yesterday?
[size=150]Did the 21st Century's Franz Ferdinand Moment Happen Yesterday?[/size]
Yesterday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed when the helicopter he was traveling on fell out of the sky and crashed to the ground. So far, Iran has treated this as a tragic accident. However, conspiracy theories from the far left, the far right, and radical Islamists are circulating, claiming that the crash was in fact caused by intentional sabotage. But if so, by who? Several countries have been named as possible suspects, but the most frequently cited country is Israel.
Should Iran change its tune and start blaming Israel for Raisi's death, things would have the potential to get very ugly, very fast. Not only would this (almost certainly) lead to an all-out war between Iran and Israel, which in turn would escalate into a wider conflict which would likely light the entire Middle East on fire, but should Iranian become paranoid enough in making its accusations, it could lead to another, potentially even more dangerous conflict... in the Caucasus.
Now you must be asking an important question: "Why the Caucasus?" Well, at the time of his death Raisi was returning from a diplomatic trip to Azerbaijan. Earlier in the day he had met with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, where they jointly inaugurated two hydroelectric dams on the Azeri side of the Iranian-Azeri border. No doubt there were Azeri troops in the immediate area where the helicopter was parked at some point during the visit; after all they (presumably) are tasked with protecting foreign leaders as they set foot on their country's soil.
Now you must be asking another important question: "What does that have to do with Israel?" Well, not only is Azerbaijan one of the few Muslim-majority countries to recognize Israel's right to exist, but it also has close diplomatic [i]and[/i] military relations with Israel, as well as a historically unstable relationship with Iran. Put those together, and you really shouldn't find yourself surprised if Iran accuses Azerbaijan of being an accomplice to plot against Raisi's life. Should Iran go there, it would (almost certainly) lead to an all-out war between Iran and Azerbaijan.
In the event of an Iranian-Azeri war, there are two players who could potentially escalate it into a global conflict: Turkey and Armenia. First, let's talk about Turkey. Turkey is in a mutual defense pact with Azerbaijan, and should war break out it could easily invoke that treaty to enter the conflict on Azerbaijan's side. Turkey is also a member of NATO, and should the conflict escalate into a Turkish-Iranian war it could easily invoke that treaty to drag the United States, Canada, and most of Europe into it. Now, let's talk about Armenia. Armenia as we all (hopefully) know has had a historically hostile relationship with Azerbaijan due to their competing claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. Not even four years ago, they fought an all-out war over that territory, which ended in an Azeri victory. Conversely, Armenia has had historically warm diplomatic ties with Iran due to their mutual mistrust of Azerbaijan. In the event of an Iranian-Azeri war, Iran would (almost certainly) encourage Armenia to attack Azerbaijan as revenge for its loss of the previous war, knowing full well that it could spark a chain reaction which would result in Armenia also being at war with not just Turkey but the entirety of NATO. Now here's where things get [i]really[/i] ugly. Armenia is a member of the CSTO, which means it is in a mutual defense pact with Russia. Armenia's observance of the treaty is currently suspended due to a deterioration in Russo-Armenian relations related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, however it is still technically a member. While Russia has historically elected to stay out of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, should NATO be dragged into the Iranian-Azeri war and then go to war with Armenia it would have a very strong incentive to honor the treaty despite Armenia's suspended participation. Because the alternative would be a NATO-dominated Caucasus, which Russia consider to be a serious national security threat.
To summarize, the death of Iran's President Raisi has the potential to spark a major war, possibly even World War III. In the absolute worst case scenario, it could lead to a chain reaction reminiscent of what the world witnessed in the summer of 1914, with the end result being the very hypothetical war the world has feared the most since 1945: NATO vs. Russia.
When I say this, I am not being hyperbolic. Did the 21st Century's Franz Ferdinand Moment Happen Yesterday?