Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude » Tue Jan 21, 2020 5:04 pm

mr nobody wrote:Hi John,
I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial doom.
First of the bat, using P/E as the basis for explaining the coming crash is outdated by at least 40 years.
US dollar got of the Bretton Woods in the 1976 and since then any prices in USD are meaningless, because it doesn't have an 'intrinsic value' anymore. 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in financial terms.
If you want to analyse financial markets, use gold, as in this example(S&P500vsGold):
https://sdbullion.com/blog/gold-vs-sp-500-chart

A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500 is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz could be used as average, then in these days its around 2 oz.
Now this is not the case, for instance in China or Japan.

But I still agree that financial ruin is coming, partly because nothing was fixed, banksters weren't put in jail, and the ginormous financial hole was mended with public funds(government), and partly because central banks all over the world 'bought'/'centralized' large portions of state economies(with printed money).

Now I don't now which one will happen first: government insolvency or currency crash(central bank 'insolvency'/'overextension'), but it will. I bet on EU, because its even bigger house of cards than China. But one of them will break, maybe even both. Kinda depends on the US.


When a host dies, do it's parasites "leave the host", by either dying or moving?

Insolvent governments are STILL governments. Even abject anarchic chaos is still "government" which "represents" a "country".

People with money (ie "banks") simply move away from chaos.

When a government has little credibility, with anyone, banks leave.
When a government has no credibility, with anyone, governments are replaced.

"DOOM" only happens if a non-coordinated mass of "interests" (powerful people) simultaneously "quasi-realize" (explanation below) that a "DOOM" is in their best interest.

Localized "DOOM" is not "DOOM", where "DOOM" is veritably global/universal.

By "quasi-realization" (above) I mean: "They (the entities involved) are SURPRISED, and yet quite doubtful, that their 'peers' are aligned or aligning with them."

...there is no "Illuminati"! :)

Will there be a "DOOM"? I predict rather large localized dooms, but no DOOM until 80% of the combined "governance of the world" reaches the "very-near-no-confidence" point, which won't happen until AFTER the "Surveillance State" ceases to become the predominant form of "state" on the planet.

We must first see the RISE of the Surveillance State (AI enabled), then it's "maturation" and subsequently it's FALL.

The "Rise" will not occur until the "perceived" Small Singularity occurs, which will actually be a "Multularity", which will allow the tech necessary for "proper/desired" surveillance to be developed.

The "true Singularity" will likely never happen, or at least won't happen for several hundred years (most likely three or four 4-generation cycles [320 to 410] years), primarily because of the "Multularity" inhibiting it's development.

..info from the future. Aren't you guys lucky you've got a feed from the teleological retrocausal mechanism? :)

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:28 pm

** 21-Jan-2020 World View: Financial doom

mr nobody wrote:> I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial
> doom. ...

> But I still agree that financial ruin is coming...


Well, that makes sense.

mr nobody wrote:> 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the
> dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in
> financial terms.


So I guess you think that 2% interest rates will last forever, in
this "so much different" world.

mr nobody wrote:> A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500
> is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz
> could be used as average, then in these days its around
> 2 oz.


Gold, like the stock market, is in a huge bubble. Anyone who invests
in gold will lose a great deal of money.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by mr nobody » Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:07 am

Hi John,
I strongly disagree about your analysis about impending financial doom.
First of the bat, using P/E as the basis for explaining the coming crash is outdated by at least 40 years.
US dollar got of the Bretton Woods in the 1976 and since then any prices in USD are meaningless, because it doesn't have an 'intrinsic value' anymore. 'Historical average' of P/E 14 doesn't mean anything, because the dollar and also the world is so much different now, especially in financial terms.
If you want to analyse financial markets, use gold, as in this example(S&P500vsGold):
https://sdbullion.com/blog/gold-vs-sp-500-chart

A simple trend can be established, where a single unit of S&P500 is becoming more valuable in gold over time. If 40 years ago, 1 oz could be used as average, then in these days its around 2 oz.
Now this is not the case, for instance in China or Japan.

But I still agree that financial ruin is coming, partly because nothing was fixed, banksters weren't put in jail, and the ginormous financial hole was mended with public funds(government), and partly because central banks all over the world 'bought'/'centralized' large portions of state economies(with printed money).

Now I don't now which one will happen first: government insolvency or currency crash(central bank 'insolvency'/'overextension'), but it will. I bet on EU, because its even bigger house of cards than China. But one of them will break, maybe even both. Kinda depends on the US.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:45 pm

Climate Change Trans Counselling



the 998th second part (very important!) <chuckle!>
https://youtu.be/uo8qXxnFuRQ?t=998

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:46 pm

** 20-Jan-2020 World View: Iraq's Muhasasa System - Confessional form of government

Warren Dew wrote:> Not correct. The Islamic State started as the Islamic State in
> Iraq in 2006, and both Abu Omar Al Baghdadi, its first leader, and
> Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, its late leader, were Iraqis. When the
> Syrian civil war resulted in large numbers of Sunni militias being
> formed, the Islamic State absorbed some of them, but that was
> recruitment, not the foundation of the state.

> That said, I don't think Iraq actually has a confessional form of
> government; its democratic government doesn't guarantee any power
> for the Sunnis.


Well, ok, in 2006 it was called al-Qaeda in Iraq, though al-Baghdadi
began putting out press releases calling it various flavors of Islamic
State in Iraq / Iraq and Syria / Sham / the Levant or whatever, or
Daesh in Arabic. I think of ISIS as beginning in 2013-14, when
al-Baghdadi broke from al-Qaeda and formed a caliphate in Raqqa,
Syria. But I wasn't seeking to get into that kind of history. I was
trying to make the simple point that the rise of ISIS was not caused
by Iraq's confessional form of government, since al-Qaeda originated
in Afghanistan and has spread to many other countries from southeast
Asia to northern Africa where there is no confessional form of
government.

However, you seem to have changed your mind anyway, because now you're
saying that Iraq's government isn't confessional after all.

Here's an article on the subject:

-- Muhasasa system / Confessional politics ensured Iran’s colonisation
of Iraq
https://thearabweekly.com/confessional-politics-ensured-irans-colonisation-iraq
(ArabWeekly, 4-Dec-2019)

This article blames Iraq's confessional Muhasasa System on the
Americans, who supposedly imposed it on the Iraqis, after Saddam was
deposed. Whereas you blame the rise of ISIS on the confessional
system, this article blames the violent interference of Iran into Iraq
on the confessional system.

Both of these make the logical error of assuming that correlation
implies causation. Irrespective of the form of government, both
al-Qaeda and Iran would have infiltrated Iraq. Iran's infiltration
follows from the Iran/Iraq war, and al-Qaeda's infiltration follows
from its spread to numerous countries.

Reading the Arab Weekly article leads me to an interesting
speculation. We know that Iraq attacked Iran with WMDs, and Iran was
convinced that Iraq was developing more WMDs, and only ended their own
nuclear development program in 2003 with Khamenei's fatwa, after the
Iraq war proved that Iraq was not developing WMDs. The speculation,
based on my reading of the Arab Weekly article, is that Iran demanded
of George Bush to implement a weak confessional form of government in
Iraq, in exchange for the fatwa to end nuclear development.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:15 am

** 20-Jan-2020 World View: Confessional government

John J. Xenakis wrote:> The confessional form of government has worked fairly well in both
> Iraq and Lebanon, because it's prevented the kind of massive
> violence that's been occurring in Iran and Syria.


Warren Dew wrote:> I wouldn't say this: sectarian issues were responsible for the
> rise of the Islamic State, which was nothing if not violent. Iraq
> just happened to be able to con the US into taking care of that
> issue for them.


It would be hard to justify blaming the rise of ISIS in Iraq on the
confessional form of government, since ISIS rose first in Syria which
is non-confessional.

This has nothing to do with ISIS. The violence I was talking about is
what you saw under Saddam in Iraq, and today in Iran, Syria, Egypt --
and, in fact, in any country where there is a generational crisis
ethnic or racial or religious civil war, and one side wins and takes
control of the government, and then uses violence and democide to
control the losing ethnic, racial or religious group.

That's what Lebanon wanted to avoid, and what Iraq wanted to avoid
after Saddam. The confessional form of government has accomplished
what was intended, in that there's no ethnic group running the
government and using violence and democide to control the other group,
but it's led to its own unique set of problems, particularly
corruption on a massive scale, since there are no checks and balances.

Ironically, the violence and democide in Iraq today does not come from
Saddam or from any Sunni or Shia Iraqi leader. It comes from Iran,
which is trying to control or even annex Iraq. Iran would like to
form a new Persian empire by annexing or controlling Yemen, Iraq,
Syria and Lebanon -- the Shia Crescent -- but is facing numerous
problems in each country, especially with growing riots in Iraq and
Lebanon.

---- Related:

** 3-Nov-19 World View -- Confessional governments in Lebanon and Iraq
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e191103.htm#e191103

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude » Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:36 pm

John wrote:...
Web Site Reader wrote:> Second, every credit card in China, including what few Visa and
> MasterCards that exist, all have a six-digit pin that must be used
> for *every *transaction. My wife can use her Chinese MasterCard
> in the States, but nobody from America can use American credit
> cards in China.

> I tried to get my Visa cards and MasterCards attached with a PIN
> here in America. ... I'd rather
> have the security and confidence of using a PIN on every
> transaction than to have to pay a minimum 16% interest rate on
> card debt (which I have none).


> American companies would rather
> stick those who pay their debt with higher fees rather than
> inconvenience them with greater security.
...


Interesting comparison about the PINs.


A 2-orders-of-magnitude (100 times larger) increase in PIN combinatorics is a VERY tiny increase in security of a "PIN Based" security system.

The Chinese use more symbols (numbers) on their credit cards only because "China > Elsewhom and 6 > 4 therefor China uses 6".

WELL,.. that, and Asians ARE ubiquitously "math geniuses", and us western savages can't remember more than 4.4382174 numbers with any reliability. (Well known facts..!!)

..it's entirely megalomaniacal egoism ("racial superiority"). (..and asian geniocity [real word?])

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by John » Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:34 am

19-Jan-20 World View -- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses

Multi-sectarian rioters protest 'confessional' government

** 19-Jan-20 World View -- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200119.htm#e200119




Contents:
Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses
Multi-sectarian rioters protest 'confessional' government
Rioters protest Iran's influence


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, confessional government system,
Iraq, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah,
Saad al-Hariri, Nabhi Berri, Michel Aoun, Russia

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:55 pm

Not woke wrote:... into another Mexico/Zimbabwe ...


ANOTHER one...!!!?

..ya' mean there'd be TWO of 'em...!!?

OMGomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgomgadzooks!....

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

Post by FishbellykanakaDude » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:03 pm

Image

..and NO, this is NOT Carpe's work,.. other than a single frame of that video he produced where Trump is Emperor in the year 30,000AD (Anno Donaldei).

...and I would have done a better job of cutting out the background of the portraits, but my laziness got ahold of me and shook me like a threadbare dimestore Pippi Longstockings doll,.. which apparently was quite exhausting as I was left with no motivation to be "professional" at all.

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