Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Freddyv wrote: You sound like a trader who has developed the skills needed to trade successfully. No, I'm afraid I'm a failed trader. I'm practically always right on the long trends, but I think I'm smart enough to jump in and out during the trend - and I'm not. My advice is to NOT try to become a ...

Yes, the market will certainly crash. But "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." (Galbraith, I think). Of course Dutch tulip bulbs weren't worth $100,000, but that's where they went in the 1600s from a nickle. Shorts at anything over $1 would have made sense, and wipe...

I hope you guys will excuse a short rant. I just need to get this out of my system. When virtually every private citizen loses money in the stock market how do you make $3.4 billion trading in three months!? You cheat. You have inside information. The rally started when Citi reported it would post a...

i dont trade fundamentals. i'm not smart enough for that. i content myself with what's actually happening and just take a little piece when something is moving or from a tradable's behavioral tics. my average trade duration is under 2 days. but i'm not intraday. I feel just the opposite. I'm not sm...

Freddyv is right about leveraged (inverse) ETFs having great risk. You can’t just hold them all the way down. This 40% rise would have handed you an 80% loss! So if you had put $100,000 into an inverse 2X ETF back in Oct 2007 and tripled your money to $300,000 holding on to until Mar 2009, the 40% r...

I’m wondering why the post above by mellini on the Fed manipulating the market hasn’t gotten more discussion. It seems that major newspapers should be screaming in their headlines “Fed Manipulating Stock Market!” How bad must things be if the Fed has to print off and dump $20 billion into the market...

Thanks for the illuminating comments guys. So summing up and extrapolating a bit, this is how it looks to me: 1. The quadrillion in derivative contracts is the payoff amount, and has nothing to do with the value of what’s begin bet on. 2. Some of these contracts are not just one time bets but agreem...

John’s last post talks about how if $1 quadrillion worth of credit derivatives loses just 10% of their value, the world loses $100 trillion and there isn’t enough money in the world to fill that gap, so deflation is pretty much inevitable no matter how much money Bernanke prints. But I don’t see how...

by StilesBC » Tue Mar 17, 2009 3:58 am SteveA - No. That's wrong. The short funds are rebalanced daily. The total size of the long-term move does not mean you'll get that with the short fund. I understand that: the total move of the underlying index over multiple sessions does not tell you the tota...

Re: Rally Over Umoguy: You said, "Don't use the short ETFs, you'll lose money to time volatility decay.." Not sure I agree with you here. The Rydex RYTPX fund, which is an S&P500 inverse 2X fund, gained about 3X during the 50% fall from Oct 2007, a period which had quite a bit of volatility. If ever...