Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

John For what it's worth, I am a GenXer who feels that like every stereotype, there are exceptions to the norm. It is prudent not to prejudge any boomer or any GenXer. I just cannot believe that anyone would have the gall to say anything disparaging to John with all the work he puts in. Why do you r...

Has John or anyone done a "Revision to the mean" analysis on interest rates? My guess is that Long term rates in the U.S. will be going up (like the PIGGS) as a result of the insurmountable debt. I am not so sure about short term rates though. Would a 5 yr CD at 2.5% be a poor investment if long ter...

Hello John, If you fit the last century's earnings into an exponential growth curve, and extrapolate that curve to 2009, then you get a trend value for about $41 for 2009. So in the absence of a bubble, you should not expect earnings per share to be above $41 for some time to come. But it's a lot w...

Hello John, I am almost in 100% agreement on your prediction on the stock market. However, as a self-check, I always like to play a little "devils advocate." The chart you have been using showing the PE that recent spiked to 123+ and is now sitting at close to 19 got me to thinking.....Couldn't you ...

Check out this live (at the time) coverage of the trading action on the S&P 500 futures during the "Flash Crash." It seems very apparent to me that it was very real (as opposed to some sort of "glitch"). Also, the fact that we traded very close to the lows of that day on Friday reconfirms the validi...

John, I must say that I am a "deflationist" through and through. However, isn't monetizing debt extremely inflationary? What if they did this? What if the US decided to monetize state debt in the same manner? I still think the gold bugs will be wrong, but at the same time these types of actions cert...

John, I heard an interesting comment from an analyst regarding the Euro. He compare the fiscal difficulties of our states (using Illinois as an example) with respect to the Dollar to those of Greece and the Euro. He said that budget problems in the states will have a similar effect of the dollar. My...

So the question I keep asking myself every day is this: How long can it pump itself up with drugs to keep going, and what will happen when the drugs finally stop working? John We pretty much saw what would happen...the market went from Dow 14K+ to Dow 6K+ in short order and then it could have very ...

I agree that Germany is/will be reluctant to bail out Greece. However, your logic that the reason has to do with having "a very strong national memory of the hyperinflation that occurred in the early 1920s, when it took a barrel of money to buy a loaf of bread" seems to go against the logic of gener...

The gold bubble will definitely burst. When that will happen can't be predicted. This entire thread discusses the matter. Sincerely, John I find the gold bubble to be one of the most fascinating bubbles. If it does really "pop," it will be the principle of maximum ruin in its most ravaging form. I ...