Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Date Basis points --------------------- ------------ July 31, 2007 11 Sept 15, 2008 82 Oct 10 332 Oct 15 305 Well, let's say that trend continues and the LIBOR falls 30 points per week. A dumbass linear extrapolation would suggest that the LIBOR will not reach 80 points (pre-Lehman) until Christmas...

Greetings, gentles all -- John, almost all your predictions are based off the assumption that we are going to recapitulate the 1929-1933 Great Depression crash. Will you allow an alternate hypothesis? http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=477k3d8mh2wmtpc4b6h07p4hy9z83x18 When commentators invoke ...

Just to demonstrate the sort of thing I am talking about: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYdE4_qKZF94&refer=home ``This decrease primarily reflects the industry's efforts to reduce risk by tearing up economically offsetting transactions and demonstrates the industry's ongoing co...

What we DO know is that pretty much EVERY financial institution failed during the crash. That's the historical comparison to use, and it indicates that the FDIC will fail. The Fed existed before the last crash. The Fed continued to exist. Therefore your first statement is soft at best. There are on...

> PS I read your blog last night and am not going to try to > enlighten catfishncod as to why 1,000 trillion notional value in > derivatives CANNOT be neutralized like an acid/base chemical > reaction. Maybe I'll join in a few days when he finds out it > can't. If I'm wrong, tell me why. I'm not an...

I really don't see how the FDIC is going to survive much longer. The FDIC's insurance fund is much smaller than the amount it will need. The FDIC is inevitably going to become part of the mechanism for deflating the bubble, precisely BECAUSE it is still doing its job when everyone else has lost the...

What I find more interesting is which of the institutions thrown up after the Depression are *holding* instead of failing. That the SEC has failed is now starkly obvious; made more so by this story http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/09/regulatory-exem.html which details how the SEC delibera...