Search found 118 matches

by jmm1184
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War
Replies: 20
Views: 21639

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

For what it's worth, I think noting the dichotomy between north and south china is probably wise. right through to the end of the 13th century china was under two separate dynasties (Song/Jin dynasties etc), it's likely the dynamic persisted unto the 1500s enough to put them on different timelines....
by jmm1184
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War
Replies: 20
Views: 21639

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

No I haven't looked at it. I'll put it on my list of things to do. Why is that war important? It's notable in Korean history for being a sort of war of independence. It completely devastated the Korean peninsula, but Korea also successfully repelled the Japanese invasion due both to the success of ...
by jmm1184
Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War
Replies: 20
Views: 21639

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War John, have you looked into the Imjin War in Korea? It took place between 1592 and 1598 and involved an attempted invasion of China via Korea by Japan. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasions_of_Korea_(1592%E2...
by jmm1184
Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Generational Theory
Topic: Awakenings
Replies: 13
Views: 14158

Re: Awakenings

Violence during an Awakening is highly correlated to whether the previous crisis war was an internal ethnic or religious civil war, versus an external war. These two cases are enormously different. What are your thoughts on the English Civil War cycle? (by cycle I mean the span of time from regener...
by jmm1184
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
Replies: 11
Views: 15256

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Whether any event causes a first turning reset depends on the how thoroughly the existing generational infrastructure is destroyed. I've hypothesized in the past that the likelihood of a first turning reset is related to the percentage of the population that consists of survivors of the previous cr...
by jmm1184
Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Generational Theory
Topic: Awakenings
Replies: 13
Views: 14158

Re: Awakenings

It's been mentioned recently that awakenings are frequently bloody, especially when the previous Crisis War is a civil war. This clearly contradicts the Fourth Turning theory, which has a tendency to romanticize them. I think awakenings have the ability to be either, or even a mix. There are plenty...
by jmm1184
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
Replies: 11
Views: 15256

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

I'm not really bothered that the Awakening climax could occur at the 60 year mark. Some milestones in the generational timelines, particularly the turning boundaries, are pretty much fixed, but others are not. The Regeneracy usually occurs in the fourth turning, but it could be postponed to the fif...
by jmm1184
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is
Replies: 11
Views: 15256

Re: 15-Aug-17 World View -- Pakistan celebrates its 70th birthday, wondering what Pakistan is

Generational history of the 1947 Partition War that created Pakistan and India Very interesting article, particularly about the identity crisis Pakistan has. I've long wondered if countries with tumultuous recoveries and mid-cycle periods are places that have either recently unified otherwise hosti...
by jmm1184
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Weblog News Comments and Discussion
Topic: 5-Aug-17 World View -- China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau
Replies: 13
Views: 15310

Re: 5-Aug-17 World View -- China further escalates the rhetoric threatening India over Doklam Plateau

I've said many, many times over the last 15 years that Millennials are the next "Greatest Generation," and that when the time comes, they'll put aside all the politics and will eagerly defend their families and their country. I'm not sure what you can tell your 17 year old friend. Depending on what...
by jmm1184
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Generations
Topic: Generation lengths
Replies: 21
Views: 94873

Re: Generation lengths

I've not been able to do lengthy analysis of fifth turning periods, but here are a few countries/eras that I've identified that may be useful to explore the generational dynamics of a fifth turning. Western Europe, 1784/87/89-1792: immediately before the onset of the Napoleonic Wars, and also meanin...