Civil war coming?

[Tom Mazanec]

By Peter Turchin
http://energyskeptic.com/2017/civil-war-coming/

[Tom Mazanec]

What a second American Civil War would be like http://www.americanthinker.com/articles ... _like.html

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Simple answer: No.

More interesting answer: It wouldn't be a "war"; it would be a "Rumble of Unusual Size". The "leftist" fascist tribe(s) would commit suicide, due to ineffectual-ness and in-fighting.

How do you create this civil war: Elect an actual fascist (Hillary, Obama, Sanders -ish), instead of a neutral populist capitalist.

What would be the effect of this civil war: A "tired" West that would sue for peace with the "opponent", and be slowly then quickly nibbled to death by the Global Chinese behemoth.

Aloha! <shaka!>

[Tom Mazanec]

There's nothing civil about a Civil War:
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2019/10/28/t ... #more-4323

[Trevor]

Generally, when we think of civil war, we think red states fighting against blue states. However, the fault line that's grown isn't quite that simple. It's much more of an Urban-rural divide, with the suburbs the most divided.

If we had a civil war, it'd look a lot more like the fighting in Syria, Yemen, Yugoslavia, etc. than the Union-Confederacy conflict. It's unlikely we'd have two sides fighting each other; we'd see several different factions, including possible succession efforts by states like California. Having half a dozen different groups, sometimes cooperating, sometimes fighting. . . it'd be far less straightforward than our historical Civil War.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Generally, when we think of civil war, we think red states fighting against blue states. However, the fault line that's grown isn't quite that simple. It's much more of an Urban-rural divide, with the suburbs the most divided.

If we had a civil war, it'd look a lot more like the fighting in Syria, Yemen, Yugoslavia, etc. than the Union-Confederacy conflict. It's unlikely we'd have two sides fighting each other; we'd see several different factions, including possible succession efforts by states like California. Having half a dozen different groups, sometimes cooperating, sometimes fighting. . . it'd be far less straightforward than our historical Civil War.

Nah,.. we'd all have muskets and those de rigueur three-pointed Hector Heathcote hats.

But, yeah, it would be a "War of a Thousand Thousand Factions",.. where the average militia size would be about 30ish.

[Tom Mazanec]

Is the US Headed Towards Another Civil War? | Barbara F. Walter | TED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yilgr2SJ3xQ

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaGc4jMGcVU

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QG-7yGkMQGU

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWOcIq9JgDU

[Bob Butler]

The progressive perspective goes the other way. Maybe the 14th Amendment boots Trump. Maybe a reputation as a criminal prevents him from getting the electoral college. Maybe the failure of the Republicans to pass anything will be noted by the voters.

The big thing is the Congress and Presidency in Democratic hands allows several of the things the people want. Reproductive healthcare will be guaranteed. Religious fanatics won’t be imposing their rituals on all. The NRA is shut down with major steps for the insane to be kept away from weapons of war. Voting right legislation gets rid of gerrymandering. Something like the border compromise recently scuttled by Trump will be passed, allowing prompt rejection of asylum requests. We will have an end to these impeachment projects looking for a crime to impeach. There won’t be attempts to shut down the government every few months.

There will still be bigots and spree killers. The violence of the Trump years won’t go away instantly. Still, the persecutions of the little people after January 6 has discouraged even Trump from calling for more violence. The worst have already been convicted and jailed. Even on January 6 Trump had only enough of an ‘army’ to disrupt one building. How do conservatives turn that into a civil war? The spree killers and racists count on hitting disarmed areas by surprise: churches, schools, bars, Super Bowl celebrations. Of late there have been enough security people to quickly end it in many cases.

International wars, maybe. Xi has painted himself into a corner. Still, he needs oil and would lose it right quick if he started anything. The sanctions have hurt Putin, but with support from Trump and some Republicans he fights on. The far right Israeli government has the world complaining. One of the few areas where I disagree with Biden is his support of Israeli genocide.

But the violence of late domestically has been the spree killers and bigots. Such are just too disorganized to start anything like a war. Highs are not times of conflict. The solutions found in the crisis become the new values, and the emphasis is put in building infrastructure. The cycles move on. Daydreaming about an endless crisis is something a conservative crisis loser would do.

Not that a crisis peak shouldn't be expected. I expect 2024 to be very eventful.

[Tom Mazanec]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VDR1lgZpo
Who Will Win America's Second Civil War?

The Military Show
915K subscribers
214K views 3 weeks ago