Conflict Risk Index

[Trevor]

I've been watching the Conflict Risk Index and there is one thing I would add to it, something that I could see leading to a larger war: the Cyprus issue. Right now, I would put it at low risk, but that could change.

They've hated each other since the days of Troy and I guarantee that Greece and Turkey will be fighting again. I know a Greek Cypriot (born in the U.S., but considered herself Cypriot) who said that every Turk on that island should be thrown out, and if they refused to leave, have them butchered; every man, woman, and child. Incidentally, she's also an early Nomad, born in 1964.

It's another way a new European war could break out: Turkey and Greece go to war, with some Europeans siding with Greece and some with Turkey. Some on both sides try to negotiate a way out of their conflict, but are ultimately forced to take sides. Most likely, we would be dragged into it as well, since Turkey has a lot of strategic value to us.

And once Greece defaults, someone like the person I described could come to power.