A further question re: Europe

[Marc]

Hi, John,

In your December 2, 2011 web log posting, you mention that you feel that the Euro currency will indeed survive, but not in the way that Europeans likely anticipate it will survive. However, you mention some sort of warfare interceding which I gather you mean has something to do with a "birth-from-the-ashes," post-war reboot for the Euro. Just to clarify, are you meaning that you feel that some sort of war between, say, Northern Europe and Southern Europe is likely to happen in the short-to-medium-term future? If this is what you mean, how does this warfare mesh with your predicted "Clash of Civilizations" world war? Would Southern Europeans be, in some way, helping out the "Axis" powers in a third world war? All in all, how does all this mesh with General Dynamics theory? Any explanations you have here would be most welcome. Thanks! —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Speaking for myself, I can easily see France and Germany fighting each other once again. We'll probably be on Britain's side, but I don't know who they are going to side with.

[Marc]

Hi, Trevor,

Interesting perspective there; even in the 21st century, you never know! But what I kindly wonder is if there really is a new inter-European war that's likely brought about as a result of European economic collapse, would there then be reconciliation by the European recently-warring countries, who would then all be on the side of the Allies during an upcoming Clash of Civilizations world war? What are people's takes on this here? Anything from you, John? —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

One thing I'm expecting is another war between Greece and Turkey. I mentioned in a previous thread the kind of hatred they hold towards each other. France and Germany will likely be fighting each other again, and while this is only a guess, i think Britain will side with Germany. The others... I really don't know.

[Marc]

If there is a war in Europe due to economic collapse, I likewise could also see Britain supporting Germany — although Britain, being not part of the Eurozone, might find it politic and prudent to stay neutral in the conflict. I, likewise, can definitely see a conflict between Greece and Turkey for the same reason I can see a conflict between Russia and the Caucasus: the age-old animosity between Christian Orthodox and Muslim civilizations. Turkey seemed like it really had its heart set on being part of the European Union, but I think that it's pretty clear that the EU simply will not warm up to that idea. Hence, it is being encouraged to be antagonistic to Europe, including Greece, I feel. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Yeah, I learned firsthand the kind of hatred they have for each other. I knew a person from Cyprus and... well, her words were a bit scary. We'll probably get dragged into that war as well. Hmm, we'll be fighting in the Pacific, in Europe, and the Middle East. This is going to be a fun decade.

[John]

I've written about a new European war, but it's never been clear to me
how the sides will divide. At one point, I wondered if Britain and
France might end up shooting at each other in Iraq or the Mideast. In
2005, I noted the extreme hostility between France and Britain over
things like agriculture payments, and Sarkozy's recent statements
telling Cameron to get lost add to that. Recently, the hostility
between Germany and Greece has been really growing. But I still don't
see anything like the very clear trends that I see in other places
(e.g., Israelis vs Arabs, Indians vs Pakistanis, U.S. vs China), so
the lineup in Europe is not clear. However, there is no chance at all
that Europe will escape the coming world war, especially with a mix of
major problems, including the financial crisis, Muslim integration,
Roma integration, and lingering anti-Semitism issues.

A couple of people have asked me when I'm going to raise the risk
level for Western Europe on my conflict risk graphic:



I might change this from a "1" to a "2" at any time, but I'm waiting
for something more bellicose than we've seen so far.

I note that Sarkozy is warning today of a "new explosion in Europe."

John

[Trevor]

Then that makes me wonder if a civil war is possible as well, particularly in places like France. Hatred's growing on both sides, despite attempts to keep things calm. I've heard some talk of simply throwing their immigrants out, though I'm not sure if that's just idle or if there's a serious discussion of that proposal.

[JR_in_Mass]

We taught them a lesson
In nineteen eighteen,
And they've hardly bothered us since then!

[Trevor]

When it breaks out, we'll likely try to stay out of it at first, encouraging negotiation between the two warring sides. That might delay it for a few years, giving hope that there will be a peaceful resolution, but ultimately, we will have to take sides and I find it likely that we will be on Britain's.