mhrr wrote:Still, which Clash of Civilizations for the next world war coming up?
The phrase comes from the title of Samuel P. Huntington' 1996 book
"The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order." He
identifies the following civilizations: Western, Latin American,
African, Islamic, Sinic (Chinese), Hindu, Orthodox, Buddhist, and
Japanese.
mhrr wrote:Oops! I'm sorry, Japan slipped my mind, I'm not sure how.
Don't be sorry, In various recent financial articles I have seen the Japanese lumped in with the "Western" as different from the "Chinese" makes no sense to me.
We got Muslims fighting Westerners, Muslims fighting Indians, Muslims fighting Chinese, Muslims fighting Russians, and Muslims fighting Africans. I'm thinking heavily on the side that Muslims will be involved in the Clash of Civilizations.
There is a group within the United States that might consider themselves an anti-war movement.
They believe that De-militarization of the United States is the best way to achieve their anti-war goals.
This group resides in the current United States administration and includes the President of the United States.
The most significant policy initiative this group is pursuing is the reduction of U.S. Strategic Nuclear Weapons down to as low as 300.
Given that after Salt II U.S. Weapons were cut down to about 3,000 that would represent an additional 90% cut in nuclear weapons since Salt II was negotiated.
300 would make Pakistan and the United States roughly equivalent nuclear powers in five years.
Leaving the United States with only a small fraction of the Russian arsenal and a distant third behind China.
The impact of such cuts in strategic weapons on the likelihood of the United States fighting a crisis war is seldom discussed.
Last edited by Reality Check on Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:09 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Even as we type the land based Underground Silo portion of the U.S. strategic deterrent is undergoing a massive "unnoticed" transformation as a result of the "New SALT treaty" negotiated by Obama.
This transformation is neither required by, nor does it serve any arms control purpose under, the NEW SALT treaty, but the changed definitions of the NEW SALT TREATY do allow this massive transformation to escape wide spread notice.
The NEW SALT Treaty changed the definition of what a Strategic Nuclear Weapon was in a profound way.
Prior to NEW SALT a strategic weapon was a high yield ( city killer size ) thermonuclear warhead that could be independently delivered to a distant city.
For example each of the 10 high yield ( city killing ) Strategic Warheads on some Russian land based Missiles can be independently delivered to a different major U.S. city, so each of these ten was counted as one strategic weapon. Such weapons are known as first strike weapons, because they are relatively cheap, and they are worth more if you use them to strike first. The U.S. had a huge advantage in such weapons before SALT I was negotiated decades ago and the Russians feared them.
Prior to Obama's NEW SALT agreement the U.S. had only three high yield ( city killing ) nuclear warheads per land based missile and these also were counted as three strategic nuclear weapons, prior to NEW SALT.
The NEW SALT treaty negotiated by Obama changed the definition of what a Strategic Weapon is.
Now each missile, regardless of how many warheads it carries is one strategic weapon.
But what is happening in the United States and Russia on the ground today is what is truly interesting.
Both countries claim what they are doing is modernizing and reforming their nuclear weapons to save money. But they are doing exactly the opposite things, so one of them is not telling the truth.
Russia is modernizing it's land based missiles and upgrading them to 10 or more warheads each. First Strike Weapons. With out increasing it's number of Strategic Weapons under the definitions of NEW SALT. It is much cheaper to have 10 warheads on one missile and Russian is looking for bang for the buck.
The United States has in the two years since NEW SALT elected to, and completed, downgrading 150 of the U.S. 450 land based missiles from three warheads to one warhead each. The second 150 of the 450 is in the process of being downgraded to one as we type. The final 150 is scheduled to be downgraded after that.
This saves very little money, because the cost is in maintaining each missile, regardless of how many warheads they carry.
Ironically, the U.S. actions serve no arms control benefit under NEW SALT, they do not change the number of weapons under the NEW SALT treaty, these actions are driven by the current President's desire to De-militarize, even if it costs money to do so.
By the definition of Strategic Weapons under SALT I and SALT II the United States is reducing it's land based Strategic Weapons to 1/3 of what they were before NEW SALT ( reducing from 1,350 Strategic Nuclear warheads to 450 ) , but under the NEW SALT changed definitions, the number of U.S. Underground Silo based Strategic Nuclear Weapons will remain unchanged at 450 ( 450 missiles before the NEW SALT TREATY was negotiated and 450 Missiles after the current downgrading is completed ).
The massive DE-militarization of the United States land based strategic deterrent is not a future event being planned - it has happened in a massive way over the last two years of Obama's first term, it is doubling during the current two years, and is scheduled to triple during the last two years or Obama''s second term.