Conflict Risk Level

[thomasglee]

John,

I'm curious how you derive the level of risk on the front page's "State of the World", "Conflict Risk Level".

I see that it's just for the next six months, but I was under the impression that you foresee the US and Western Europe entering their next crisis phase. Wouldn't that make their "Conflict Risk Level" higher?

[John]

Dear Thomas,

> I'm curious how you derive the level of risk on the front page's
> "State of the World", "Conflict Risk Level".

> I see that it's just for the next six months, but I was under the
> impression that you foresee the US and Western Europe entering
> their next crisis phase. Wouldn't that make their "Conflict Risk
> Level" higher?

I don't believe there's much chance that a war could begin in Europe
in the next six months. A war COULD begin with China or between India
and Pakistan, or in the Mideast or the Caucasus, and then spread to
Europe, but I don't think it would start in Europe. But who knows?
That's just my estimate.

Here are some places where I've written about this subject:

** Russian invasion of Georgia continues, objective is not known
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 12#e080812

** Risk of Pakistan meltdown increases as Musharaff clamps down
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 06#e071106

** William G. McLoughlin / Awakenings / Truman Doctrine
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... ning060919


** Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 10#e060210

** The Conflict Risk Index
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 30#e050530

** Six most dangerous regions in world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... nger041120

John

[VinceP1974]

I don't believe there's much chance that a war could begin in Europe
in the next six months.

That's the way I interpreted your chart too... it's the likelihood of war erupting in those geographical areas.

[CrosstimbersOkie]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 017951.ece

But Chinese analysts think the leadership, riding a wave of patriotism as the year of the tiger dawns, may go further.

“This time China must punish the US,” said Major-General Yang Yi, a naval officer. “We must make them hurt.” A major-general in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Luo Yuan, told a television audience that more missiles would be deployed against Taiwan. And a PLA strategist, Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would “qualitatively upgrade” its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown “when we’re strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US”.

Chinese indignation was compounded when the White House said Obama would meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader of Tibet, in the next few weeks.

“When someone spits on you, you have to get back,” said Huang Xiangyang, a commentator in the China Daily newspaper, usually seen as a showcase for moderate opinion.

[burt]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 017951.ece

Colonel Meng Xianging, said China would “qualitatively upgrade” its military over the next 10 years to force a showdown “when we’re strong enough for a hand-to-hand fight with the US”.

It means (for me) there is NO risk of war within the next ten years, so why not cooling down.