Mid-19th Challenge

[thomasglee]

Dear Thomas,

A mass migration or relocation of an entire population destroys the
generational relationships that existed prior to the relocation, and
causes a "first turning reset," which means that the population enters
a first turning Recovery Era, irrespective of whatever turning they
were in when the relocation began.

John

Thanks for the reply. I understand, but do you think that migration/immigration has any effect on either slowing down or speeding up a turn and not necessarily just "resetting" it?

Also, i'm reading a book right now that goes into detail about the last great Caliphate - the Ottoman Empire. I would assume that GD does not apply to religions as a whole, but in the case of Islam, it appears as if the whole of Islam (the Ummah) is entering a new crisis phase that isn't necessarily restricted to regional GD influences. Would you agree?

[John]

Dear Thomas,

> Thanks for the reply. I understand, but do you think that
> migration/immigration has any effect on either slowing down or
> speeding up a turn and not necessarily just "resetting" it?

I hesitate to say that anything is impossible, since we're talking
about all places and times in history, but I know of no theoretical
reason why migration or immigration would have any effect on the
length of a turning, other than through the "butterfly effect."

John

[Tom Acre]

John,
I appreciate the thoughtful response.

Today, there are several countries that had their last crisis wars in
the 1910s and 1920s that still haven't had new crisis wars -- Mexico,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia.

There are other historical examples of
countries that seem to have skipped crisis wars -- Iceland and
Switzerland in WW II, and Britain in the 1860s.

Have the delayed countries entered a "Fifth Turning" under the GD model? Did the countries that skipped enter a "Fifth Turning"?

In the case of Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Russia today, ...
A country that has "unnatural" oil wealth
can do a lot to buy off its discontented poor people, and prevent a
serious war. We can see this all the time in Gaza and Haiti, for
example, where there would surely be major wars by now if it weren't
for massive injections of foreign aid.

The foreign entity disrupting the transition makes sense, whether it be money in Haiti or occupation of Iceland. But within a nation isn't it general tendencies, trends and traits from top to bottom that sends it blundering into a Crisis?

Another possible factor that might delay or prevent a crisis war is a
particularly debilitating non-crisis war that preceded the Crisis era.
This is the case with Turkey, and its war with the PKK Kurds, and it
was true of Britain in the 1860s, having recently fought the Crimean
War.

A pseudo-Crisis? It occurred to me that the history surrounding the skipped Crisis at question is called the Pax Britannica. I wonder if the Roman Empire skipped a crisis(es) during the Pax Romana?

[thomasglee]

Dear Thomas,

> Thanks for the reply. I understand, but do you think that
> migration/immigration has any effect on either slowing down or
> speeding up a turn and not necessarily just "resetting" it?

I hesitate to say that anything is impossible, since we're talking
about all places and times in history, but I know of no theoretical
reason why migration or immigration would have any effect on the
length of a turning, other than through the "butterfly effect."

John

I understand and appreciate your point of view. Younger generations learn from the older generations... that's what puts the cycles into effect. Now, let's say the new "teachers" immigrate to an area where the cycle they grew up under was different. Wouldn't this have an affect? I'm reaching (grasping?) here, but I see how there are periods in history and even within turns, where the effect is not what would be expected. Therefore, I am just trying to identify the "culprit".

Thank you for providing a great forum on such an interesting topic!

[The Grey Badger]

John,
I appreciate the thoughtful response.

Today, there are several countries that had their last crisis wars in
the 1910s and 1920s that still haven't had new crisis wars -- Mexico,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Russia.

There are other historical examples of
countries that seem to have skipped crisis wars -- Iceland and
Switzerland in WW II, and Britain in the 1860s.

Have the delayed countries entered a "Fifth Turning" under the GD model? Did the countries that skipped enter a "Fifth Turning"?

In the case of Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Russia today, ...
A country that has "unnatural" oil wealth
can do a lot to buy off its discontented poor people, and prevent a
serious war. We can see this all the time in Gaza and Haiti, for
example, where there would surely be major wars by now if it weren't
for massive injections of foreign aid.

The foreign entity disrupting the transition makes sense, whether it be money in Haiti or occupation of Iceland. But within a nation isn't it general tendencies, trends and traits from top to bottom that sends it blundering into a Crisis?

Another possible factor that might delay or prevent a crisis war is a
particularly debilitating non-crisis war that preceded the Crisis era.
This is the case with Turkey, and its war with the PKK Kurds, and it
was true of Britain in the 1860s, having recently fought the Crimean
War.

A pseudo-Crisis? It occurred to me that the history surrounding the skipped Crisis at question is called the Pax Britannica. I wonder if the Roman Empire skipped a crisis(es) during the Pax Romana?

Pax Romana? Paul Colinvaux points out that the only times Europe was spared periodic (500-year intervals) invasions by steppe and/or desert tribes were the 20th Century, which he understood, and the First Century, which utterly baffled him. It didn't baffle me; I could explain it in three words. Or in Latin, two. As you said above. The 500-pound gorilla of the First Century.