> Generational explanation for the violence in Mexico
> Mexico's last generational crisis war was the Mexican Revolution
> of 1910-21. Mexico and Turkey are the only two major countries
> that have gone more than 90 years without a generational crisis
> war.
jmm1184 wrote:
> I was curious about this statement - does this mean that Russia
> and Eastern Europe experienced a first-turning reset during WWII?
> Also, I thought it might be a good idea to list nations that are
> currently in the midst of Fifth Turnings. Some of these I'm not
> entirely sure about, and would love discussion about them.
> In order from most recently entering into a fifth turning to
> oldest in a fifth turning
> Spain - climax in 1939
> Paraguay & Bolivia - climax in 1935
> Brazil - climax in 1932
> Morocco - climax in 1926
> Saudi Arabia, Jordan - climax in 1925
> Kazakhstan - climax in 1922
> Uzbekistan - climax in 1922
> Turkmenistan - climax in 1922
> Kyrgyzstan - climax in 1922
> Turkey - climax in 1922
> Mexico - climax in 1920
Obviously there are mor than two major countries that have gone more
than 90 years without a crisis war.
Russia is also in that category, but it's complicated because WW II
was particularly difficult for Russia. Also, Russia is so huge that
it has multiple timelines.
The real question is what happens to the society of a country as the
time of the last crisis war recedes. S&H have documented that for
Europe and America for the 60-70 years or so, though they're no help
with other countries or timespans because they have all countries in
the world on the same timeline.
I really began to get into this subject in 2005, after the 7/7/2005
London subway bombings, because there was published evidence that the
vast majority of suicide bombers in the Mideast had come from Morocco
and Saudi Arabia, two countries whose last crisis wars were in the
1920s.
The latest development (for me) was my recent articles:
** 2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180702
** 3-Jul-18 World View -- Mexico elects far left president amid skyrocketing murders, crime and corruption
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180703
I now believe that taking Leon Festinger's work on Cognitive
Dissonance for small groups and extending it to entire populations,
sub-populations and generations is the key to understanding how
societies change as one generational era moves into the next.
Roughly, the concepts are a follows:
- The generational crisis war unifies the nation, with the entire
population committed to a set of common beliefs, based on "lessons
learned."
- As the years go buy, chunks and pieces of that set of common
beliefs are broken off by different groups in younger generations, and
the group takes a position (pro or con) on that chunk. Two different
groups may break off the same chunk, but take opposition positions.
- Each of these groups "commits" to the chunk that it selected, in
the form of political donations, political support, riots,
demonstrations, violence, and so forth. The commit turns into an
ideology, and the ideology must be defended with commitments. Recall
that one of Festinger's requirements for cognitive dissonance is that
each member of the group must be totally committed to the group's
belief.
- During the Unraveling era, the crisis war survivors are still able
to mediate between the different opposing groups and different
ideologies. Furthermore, each of the groups can still claim that its
ideology is supported by the facts. Where there are difficulties or
differences, the survivors force a compromise.
- Once the nation enters a new generational Crisis era -- 58 years
after the climax of the preceding crisis war, as the voices of the
survivor generations can no longer be heard -- the disputes over the
different ideologies can no longer be resolved.
- As a few more years go by, the facts of what's happening in the
world conflict with some of the ideologies. In other words, people
who have committed their lives to one political belief or ideology are
suddenly faced with facts that clearly contradict their committed
believes. This is what "cognitive dissonance" means.
- Some of the people accepts the new facts, and adapt their beliefs
to what's really going on in the world. A significant minority refuse
to do so, and they double down on their beliefs.
- In Festinger's experiment, the ones who doubled down re-committed
their lives to proselytizing a revised versions of their old beliefs.
The revised version in Festinger's experiment was to explain that, at
the last minute, God had decided to give the world a second chance.
- In the Crisis era society, the groups that refuse to accept that
facts have disproven their ideologies double down on their ideologies
by revising them and proselytizing. This explains the increase in
nationalism during a Crisis era.
- Revising them usually means blaming the facts on the other
political party, the other ethnic group, the other religion, or
whatever. This explains the increase in xenophobia during a Crisis
era.
- Proselytizing could mean new political movements, new religious
factions, violence, terrorism, suicide bombings and, eventually, a
crisis war.
This outline provides a framework for how every country in the world
can be analyzed for how the society is behaving in different
generational eras.