Basics of Generational Theory

Awakening eras, crisis eras, crisis wars, generational financial crashes, as applied to historical and current events
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John
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Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

If you're new to Generational Dynamics and generational theory, then
this is the place to ask questions, discuss and get answers.

To get you started, please read the following:

** Basics of Generational Dynamics
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 0.i.basics


Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

Golden Fox
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:20 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by Golden Fox »

Dear John Xenakis, thank you very much for creating this forum. I have been reading Generations: A History of America's future 1584 - 2069 and have found their theory to be a fascinating view on American history. I have been reading about your theories for several months by now and have wanted you to create a forum for open discussion and contribution of and to your theories. I wanted to join the fourthturning forums, but found that most of it's members are leftist political hacks and even a few outright anti-Americans who do not care so much for an objective study of history or of the present. You seem to have an objective, mostly un-biased view of the theory and of current events and your web log has been an invaluable resource on the upcoming crisis that is so obviously close now, especially on economic events. Many thanks.

~Golden Fox

jxenakis
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by jxenakis »

Dear Golden Fox,
Golden Fox wrote: Dear John Xenakis, thank you very much for creating this forum. I
have been reading Generations: A History of America's future 1584
- 2069 and have found their theory to be a fascinating view on
American history. I have been reading about your theories for
several months by now and have wanted you to create a forum for
open discussion and contribution of and to your theories. I wanted
to join the fourthturning forums, but found that most of it's
members are leftist political hacks and even a few outright
anti-Americans who do not care so much for an objective study of
history or of the present. You seem to have an objective, mostly
un-biased view of the theory and of current events and your web
log has been an invaluable resource on the upcoming crisis that is
so obviously close now, especially on economic events. Many
thanks.
Thanks for the compliment. Of course, Strauss and Howe, the authors
of the Generations book you mention, were the founding fathers of
generational theory, and Generational Dynamics was built on top of
their foundational work.

I too am very bothered by the anti-Americanism of many people,
especially those on the loony left. But that's coming to an end. As
the real crisis period approaches, civic unity will be regenerated
for the first time since the end of World War II, as the country
cooperates to preserve America and its way of life.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

Golden Fox
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:20 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by Golden Fox »

Dear John Xenakis,
jxenakis wrote:Dear Golden Fox,

Thanks for the compliment. Of course, Strauss and Howe, the authors
of the Generations book you mention, were the founding fathers of
generational theory, and Generational Dynamics was built on top of
their foundational work.

I too am very bothered by the anti-Americanism of many people,
especially those on the loony left. But that's coming to an end. As
the real crisis period approaches, civic unity will be regenerated
for the first time since the end of World War II, as the country
cooperates to preserve America and its way of life.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum
Your welcome.

I have read your posts about Obama, the loony left, anti-Americans, and politicians and I think you nailed it every time. I would admit that the political right may have their extremists, yes but at least they seem to care about and love America. Most of the loony left hate conservatives (all of them) or hate everything on which America was founded and stood for. They are trying to turn Americans not only against each other, as the right-wing nuts also do admitedly, but also against America itself. As such, I can tolerate the opinions of people like Ann Coulter or Michael Savage even though I may disagree with some or most of their views, but Howard Zinn, Noam Chomsky and Gore Vidal are dangerous, especially as the crisis comes closer.

I hope the American people do come to see what these idiots stand for, reject it, and come together as Americans and work to survive and succeed in whatever the upcoming crisis brings to us. But I am not so optimistic that that is predestined to be the case. Remember during the Civil War crisis Americans didn't unite, they were most divided then at any time in history. Instead, they divided into Northern Unionist and Southern Confederate factions. Civic unity wasn't regenerated in America, instead they were killing eachother. But I think that however the upcoming crisis will play out depends on whether the current political hackery and partisan bickering especially among the current Prophet generation are merely a typical pre-crisis division that highlights the need for renewed civic unity during the upcoming crisis, like it was among the Missionary and Awakener generations before their crises, or more in the Transcendental style of a deeply dividing political division among the American people that can recreate the civil war.

Either way, It's certain that at least for the next few months up and until the crisis starts, Republicans and Democrats will blame eachother for the economy or anything else falling apart, though in reality it is neither's fault and neither can do anything about it.

Golden Fox

John
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

Golden Fox wrote: > Remember during the Civil War crisis Americans didn't unite, they
> were most divided then at any time in history. Instead, they
> divided into Northern Unionist and Southern Confederate factions.
> Civic unity wasn't regenerated in America, instead they were
> killing eachother. But I think that however the upcoming crisis
> will play out depends on whether the current political hackery and
> partisan bickering especially among the current Prophet generation
> are merely a typical pre-crisis division that highlights the need
> for renewed civic unity during the upcoming crisis, like it was
> among the Missionary and Awakener generations before their crises,
> or more in the Transcendental style of a deeply dividing political
> division among the American people that can recreate the civil
> war.
From the point of view of generational theory, you have to
distinguish between generational conflicts and fault line conflicts.

The Civil War was fought across a fault line that separated the
people of the North and South, who had totally different lifestyles
and were like totally different people.

Today's bitter political battles are generational. Obama's main
attraction has been to young Millennials and Gen-Xers, because they
identify with his contempt for Boomer and Silent generation values
and accomplishments. McCain's main attraction has been to Boomers
and Silents, because of his age and his focus on security.

** Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead!
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e070123


In the Civil War, the crisis fault line was between the North and the
South, and that only grew worse as the regeneracy proceeded.

Today, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans is purely
political, and will disappear as the regeneracy proceeds. In fact,
that's already happening.

That's not to say that there won't be very bitter political battles,
but they'll turn out to be much less important than the country's
unification.

In fact, one of the amusing things that I heard on the Sunday news
shows today is that both the Obama camp and the McCain camp are
totally pissed off because nobody's paying any attention to them this
weekend. Boo hoo.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

natexermusicmaker
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by natexermusicmaker »

John,

I too have recently come upon the Strauss and Howe theories and their works have inspired one of those life-affecting moments of enlightenment for me. I am a musician and a professor at 3 local universities. I have the opportunity to teach a music appreciation class as an elective to non-music majors, and for the previous year, I've used as my topic of choice, "The 80's." In my research on generational conflict between the Boomers and the Gen Xers, I discovered Strauss and Howe. I used my summer diving into the books and have been transformed! I decided to change the topic to the discussion of pop music as the expression of generations from post Civil War to the present. I am so excited to treat the music course in this manner and to have an opportunity to expose students to the Strauss/Howe theories as well as treat music history from an angle that I feel has not yet been explored (to my knowledge anyway: if you know of others who have, please let me know!). Thus far in the semester, I have have just begun the American High and the rise of rock music. I also recently was a guest lecturer on Bebop jazz music at an annual event celebrating Jack Kerouak, and I was able to inject much generational information to buttress the ideas.

As I have been absorbing and researching these theories, I happened upon your site, and as a conservative Gen X-er, I have found your thoughts to be much more compatible to my own. I have learned much from your web log and have valued your thoughts as I consider current events. I am looking forward to reviewing the posts in this forum in days ahead.

Peltaire
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2008 3:19 am

Financial topics

Post by Peltaire »

John says,
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're headed for a
new world war, and I wanted to estimate the probability that it would
begin in 2005, and each year thereafter. I made a computation based
on the number of years since the end of the previous crisis war, and
came up with a probability of 21% that it would start in 2005.....
... This would be a perfect research project for
some post-graduate student, and I believe that these probabilities
could be made a lot more accurate.
It seems entirely backward to relate to the future as if it were fixed a particular way, and that the way it will be can be computed.

John, your words and your calculations are in favor of a new world war. And the work you have done has predicted a 21% chance of it starting in 2005. It refers to the new global war correct? How do you measure when a war starts? Is it declared? Or did you set up other measurements for that?

You could just as easily come up with a computational result showing a 37% chance of global utopia for a week in November.

This is a blog for individuals who are passionately connected to the future. This is also a blog with very smart participants who make an impact on others with their words. My intention is to hold you accountable for what your words create for other people and make sure you are responsible for the impact words have on the conversations readers have out in the world. I could easily assert that someone who read this blurb is now testifying that there will be a new world war because there was a fancy calculation done. I am not saying it isn't possible, it is possible, the very worst future yet, and because that is possible, so is everything else.

John
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

Peltaire wrote: > It seems entirely backward to relate to the future as if it were
> fixed a particular way, and that the way it will be can be
> computed.

> John, your words and your calculations are in favor of a new world
> war. And the work you have done has predicted a 21% chance of it
> starting in 2005. It refers to the new global war correct? How do
> you measure when a war starts? Is it declared? Or did you set up
> other measurements for that?
Well, when did World War II begin? I've suggested that the 1930
Smoot-Hawley law could be considered the first "shot." Or perhaps
the Japanese invasion of Manchuria or China.

But it's generally accepted that WW II began with Britain's
declaration of war against Germany.

I would expect some similar cataclysmic event to signal the beginning
of the Clash of Civilizations world war.

The article that you're referring to was really an experimental
attempt to attach some numbers to the predictions.

** Six most dangerous regions in world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... nger041120


In those computations, I made the assumption that any regional war in
any of those six regions would create a situation where major
declarations of war would begin, and that would be the start of the
World War.

Quite honestly, I think it's one of those things where we'll know it
immediately when we see it. I think that once it happens, we won't
be debating whether it really happened. That's my expectation,
anyway.
Peltaire wrote: > You could just as easily come up with a computational result
> showing a 37% chance of global utopia for a week in November.
Yeah, right.
Peltaire wrote: > This is a blog for individuals who are passionately connected to
> the future. This is also a blog with very smart participants who
> make an impact on others with their words. My intention is to hold
> you accountable for what your words create for other people and
> make sure you are responsible for the impact words have on the
> conversations readers have out in the world. I could easily assert
> that someone who read this blurb is now testifying that there will
> be a new world war because there was a fancy calculation done. I
> am not saying it isn't possible, it is possible, the very worst
> future yet, and because that is possible, so is everything else.
I've had this kind of accusation before -- that I might be the CAUSE
of a world war, or I might be the CAUSE of a financial crisis, and I
really consider it utter nonsense.

How would that even work? Would Osama bin Laden read my web site,
and decide to start a war? Actually, he's already been doing that
since the 1980s.

And that's part of the point. There are many terrorist groups who
publish stuff that's really inflammatory with the objective of
starting a war, and they don't succeed, because the time isn't right.

Generational Dynamics teaches us that a crisis war has to be triggered
by the right combination of chaotic events. We saw how the Danish
cartoon incident triggered worldwide protests, and that might have led
to a major war somewhere, but it didn't.

On the other hand, do you think that Pakistan's president, Asif Ali
Zardari, might be surfin' the net one day, stumble across my
prediction that Pakistan and India are going to have a war, and then
say, "Well, if John Xenakis says we're going to have a war, then I
might as well start it, so we can get it over with!" It just doesn't
make sense.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

malleni
Posts: 150
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 3:34 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by malleni »

Hi John,

I started to read more in detail your explanation on the web site and found two things:
1. It is quite fascinating connection (even if some of things I would not agree with you)
2. Very often you use this explanation:
"...This results in a cycle of crisis wars: Since the human lifetime is about 80 years, crisis wars tend to occur every 70-90 years in any society or nation. This chapter presents some basics to show how nations go from one major crisis war to another in roughly 80-year cycles. The number of years is approximate; it's usually 70-85 years, but some cycles run as little as 60 years or as many as 100 years...."
- Since this numbers do not quite correspond with knowledge I have regarding wars in Europe (or more exact Balkan) - I check shortly the life-span of humal life throughout the countries and time. I find quite interesting link and here it is:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy

In short on this picture:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Life ... 0-2005.svg

As you can see there are average life span from less than 40 years for some areas and we all definitely know that they also had massive of wars under this time and at those periods.

With other words, in my opinion, generational dynamic is probably a good tool (although quite rough) to take in consideration when man would like to predict events, but not for all nations and for all geographic areas - since obviously the different areas and different nations has different life spans.

John
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

malleni wrote: > As you can see there are average life span from less than 40 years
> for some areas and we all definitely know that they also had
> massive of wars under this time and at those periods.
Average human life span is irrelevant -- that's mostly determined by
infant mortality, and that has nothing to do with generational flows.

What's important is the maximum effective human lifespan, which has
been at 80 years for millennia. In every society, at every time in
history, there are always a fraction of the population of every
generation who survive the latest war, famine or plague, and it's
those survivors who continue the generational cycles.
malleni wrote: > With other words, in my opinion, generational dynamic is probably
> a good tool (although quite rough) to take in consideration when
> man would like to predict events, but not for all nations and for
> all geographic areas - since obviously the different areas and
> different nations has different life spans.
Generational Dynamics and generational theory is valid for every
nation and society, in every geographical region, at all times in
history, without exception.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

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