Basics of Generational Theory

[burt]

Hello John,

Within one blog you gave the different groups that were going to compete in what you call "Clash of Civilizations", Could you please be kind enough to give me its reference, I don't find it any more (search option didn't give me anything).

You said that India was going to fight with the US and that Pakisatan was going to fight with China (this part looks quite clear for me), but Russia on the same side as Europe and the US wouldn't work, on my point of view. and Russia with China is in the interest of none of them.

And a remark about TIMING: A global war looks to me quite impossible within the next 5 years (after that period of time nobody knows), but you have to have a lot of preparation to buils a global war (and there is nothing important today) and, on top of that, I do not believe the armies will try anything hudge BEFORE the Singularity (too risky). This means not before 2025 (VERY far away in term of prediction). So we have time to envoy life...

A lot of Civil Wars (including in the US and along the Meditarrenean sea) are more probable, but even not yet, not within the next 3 years. But Civil Wars or clash between small countries are less predictable, so we'll see.

Regards

Burt

[John]

Dear Bertrand,

> Within one blog you gave the different groups that were going to
> compete in what you call "Clash of Civilizations", Could you
> please be kind enough to give me its reference, I don't find it
> any more (search option didn't give me anything)..

** Chapter 3 -- The Principle of Localization I
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... alization1

> You said that India was going to fight with the US and that
> Pakisatan was going to fight with China (this part looks quite
> clear for me), but Russia on the same side as Europe and the US
> wouldn't work, on my point of view. and Russia with China is in
> the interest of none of them..

Russia has never fought a crisis war with Europe. The Great Northern
War, Napoleonic Wars, and WW II were all invasions by Europeans.
Russia's crisis wars have always been fought with the Asians, usually
aligned as Orthodox civilization versus Muslim civilization.

> And a remark about TIMING: A global war looks to me quite
> impossible within the next 5 years (after that period of time
> nobody knows), but you have to have a lot of preparation to buils
> a global war (and there is nothing important today) and, on top of
> that, I do not believe the armies will try anything hudge BEFORE
> the Singularity (too risky). This means not before 2025 (VERY far
> away in term of prediction). So we have time to envoy life...

> A lot of Civil Wars (including in the US and along the
> Meditarrenean sea) are more probable, but even not yet, not within
> the next 3 years. But Civil Wars or clash between small countries
> are less predictable, so we'll see.

I have no idea what you're talking about. China has been preparing
for war with the West since the 1990s, so there's "a lot of
preparation" that you're referring to. The U.S. and China could be a
war tomorrow over Taiwan, as I've said many times.

** 28-Jun-10 News -- Military tensions increase in South China Sea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 28#e100628

Even without China versus US, a war could break out in Europe or the
Caucasus at any time.

** The gathering storm in the Caucasus.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... asus080817

And of course, India and Pakistan have been preparing for war with
each other since the 1970s.

The interesting question is how the Europeans will choose sides. Will
it be Franch versus Britain again? If so, which side will the Germans
choose?

John

[John]

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind:

After 9/11, we were at war with Afghanistan almost overnight.

And in 2006, after Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, Israel was
at war within four hours.

John

[thomasglee]

Just think back to Pearl Harbor. Sure, the world was in turmoil and in HINDSIGHT it wasn't a surprise, but on the evening of 6 December most Americans didn't go to bed thinking that on the 7th we would be at war.

[burt]

Just think back to Pearl Harbor. Sure, the world was in turmoil and in HINDSIGHT it wasn't a surprise, but on the evening of 6 December most Americans didn't go to bed thinking that on the 7th we would be at war.

For sure a war surprises anyone, BUT, today UNO is not completely without power (not yet) and it means there should be a delay before the attack and the global war.
Even BEFORE WWII, there was a lot of tries (Spain, Italy which attacked Ethiopia for example), just to test that the organisation which should control the war, does nothing, AND there was the invasion of Austria AND there was the stupid agreement between France, England and Germany, because France didn’t WANT to go to war and England was NOT ready.

[thomasglee]

[For sure a war surprises anyone, BUT, today UNO is not completely without power (not yet) and it means there should be a delay before the attack and the global war.

Even BEFORE WWII, there was a lot of tries (Spain, Italy which attacked Ethiopia for example), just to test that the organisation which should control the war, does nothing, AND there was the invasion of Austria AND there was the stupid agreement between France, England and Germany, because France didn’t WANT to go to war and England was NOT ready.

Oh, but I would argue there are a lot of "tries". You have Iran stubbing their nose at the world in regards to nukes, you have the west implementing sanctions through the UN (and the US implementing their own unilateral sanctions (which, by definition and international law, is a declaration of war), you have the norKs (north Koreans) sinking a ROK (south Korean) ship, you have various nations testing Israel's right to embargo an enemy territory... I could go on and on. There are a lot of tripwires that could send us into global conflict in the blink of an eye.

[burt]

I'm glad you are here online at the same time as I am.

Oh, but I would argue there are a lot of "tries"

Yes I agree, we are on a very bad road, and I do not know how it will end and where to hide my family.

BUT this is NOT as bad as that, no one is really going "too far". For me this is only the beginning and the configuration for a global war is not here. We'll see...
I've seen much worse periods in my life and nothing really bad happened, so I take my time and do not try to over-react. For example the 21-12-2012 will be my fifth "end of the world" I should live, so ....

A practical question: Have you got any idea where to go to let the wind of the madness of the man, blowing above my head??

[burt]

I have no idea what you're talking about. China has been preparing
for war with the West since the 1990s, so there's "a lot of
preparation" that you're referring to. The U.S. and China could be a
war tomorrow over Taiwan, as I've said many times.

I fully agree with you, but on my point of view this is NOT enough. I doesn’t fit with what I learned about very important wars.

For a global war you have to have clear alliances AND someone "mad" who begins. I couldn't believe that, even if India would go to war with Pakistan this would be enough motivation for China and the US to go to war.
The sprit of the war is not here, and it needs years to build it.
Any war between any 2 countries can start at any time, but it shouldn't spiral.

9/11 is something else, today you have 2 countries completely paranoid, by culture (I mean for centuries): the US and China, the US is an empire which is paranoid about the effect that the other countries could have on it. China is paranoid about Civil War (internal).

So If the US FEELS as if it were attacked, they could enter into war at any time, China it is not so simple. And even so, would the US be followed by anyone?
Europe: no more sure, Europe was manipulated by Bush, and by Goldman Sachs, so they shouldn't follow the US (England alone could)
Russia, surely not, they always consider that their worst enemy IS the US

BUT This is not enough.

The main conditions are:
- People have to be ready to go to war or manipulated to be ready (and some historians have doubts about what happened around Pearl Harbour). Not done
- The enemy is clear and there was "advertisement" which designs "the bad guy", the “Scapegoat” concept which makes people thinking that war can be won and that this could be a good thing. Not done
- Some economical gains have to be hopped by someone. Not done
- Armies have to be ready. Yet China is NOT powerful enough, Russia not ready neither, both are working to build a strong army, but they are NOT ready YET, not before 5 years. The US Army is everywhere in the Pacific, so if troops do NOT retreat because of the financial crisis, this is too risky to go to war against the US, YET (and the US is too weak to attack first a big country, it doesn't have anymore the ressources). Not done
- UNO have to be shown and ridiculized as "impotent" Not done

For a war between 2 countries it is different, but who would follow Israël OR Turkey if they begin to fight each other.

China taking control of the South China Sea could very well be the first step (it is, on my point of view, the riskiest problem, and Taiwan belongs to that problem), after that there should be a one year discussion within the UN and some kind of agreements signed. Then IF discussions fail, it could spiral out very quickly, but we are not there (it is NOT in the interest of China YET. For Taiwan, for example, they try the phagocytose technic, to absord it with commercial agreements, not with war, this is very clever and should be very effective).

This is why I say that the world is going to survive 5 years (it could be 4, but it NOT for tomorrow)
(Without the 5 above points (they were met at WWI and WWII) you can have genocidal local war, but, on my point of view, nothing global)

[thomasglee]

I'm glad you are here online at the same time as I am.

Me too. Especially if anything I write can be helpful to you.

Yes I agree, we are on a very bad road, and I do not know how it will end and where to hide my family.

I'm afraid there won't be any place to hide. My thoughts are that when the proverbial crap hits the fan, the best place to be will be in the rural areas away from the cities. But I'm sure a lot of people are thinking that way and the rural folks might not be very welcoming.

BUT this is NOT as bad as that, no one is really going "too far". For me this is only the beginning and the configuration for a global war is not here. We'll see...

Throughout history, major financial crises have led to war. Why will it be different this time?

What is the definition of "going too far"? That's a hard one to nail down. As mentioned previously (or at least as eluded to) and as John has so aptly pointed out many times.... there usually isn't a visible large buildup to major wars, but a key explosive moment that sets everything into quick motion.

I've seen much worse periods in my life and nothing really bad happened, so I take my time and do not try to over-react. For example the 21-12-2012 will be my fifth "end of the world" I should live, so ....

I'm only 43, but I remember the early 80's and the fear that many of us felt worried about a nuclear holocaust. In my opinion, the coming event won't be the "end of the world", but the beginning of a new one.

A practical question: Have you got any idea where to go to let the wind of the madness of the man, blowing above my head??

As I have mentioned here before, I myself am a Christian that believes in the prophecies of the Bible. So for me, I turn the only place I believe we can turn to in times of distress... God Almighty! He promises He will always provide for His followers and I believe that it true. Therefore, while I do take steps to prepare, I also put faith in Him to deliver as He has promised. Therefore, the best advice I can give is to believe in Him.

The main reason I believe we are entering a very difficult period is because of what I've studied in regards to Biblical prophecies. There are many Christians that do not believe the prophecies, but I do.

I pray you'll find the answers you're seeking.

[thomasglee]

The sprit of the war is not here, and it needs years to build it. Any war between any 2 countries can start at any time, but it shouldn't spiral.

...For a war between 2 countries it is different, but who would follow Israël OR Turkey if they begin to fight each other.

You're overlooking something VERY important... treaties. Take, for example, a war between Turkey and Israël...

Just for discussion sake, let's say that for some reason Israel were to attack Turkey. Do you realize that due to Turkey belonging to NATO, by treaty the USA and the rest of Europe would be REQUIRED to come to Turkey's assistance? That's the reason why NATO agreed to help us in Afghanistan. Not out of any altruistic reasons, but because we were attacked on 911 by a group that was based in Afghanistan. Therefore, NATO agreed, as per the NATO agreement, that they would come to our aide. The NATO agreement states that an attack on any NATO nation is an attack on ALL the nations of NATO. There are many more such agreements that exist. For example, there is a mutual defense agreement between Syria, Iran and Russia, the USA and Taiwan, the USA, Japan and Korea, etc., etc... So as you see, it CAN spiral quickly.