You say in your own texts that there are often 58 years between a major event and a panic.
Nothing important happened in 1952, and you speak very often about a major panic on the financial markets, as if this would happen this year.
Myself, I think it is too early for a panic. I suspect that you speak about your own panic if front of the unravelling era of the financial system.
We have SMALL movements of panics, but they are at the TOP of the stock market, it is VERY different as one in the middle of a down wave.
At this point point it should say that the so-called markets (which are only poker games) are going to move higher until the end of the year.
About panics (just to check with you my understanding) Let's take 2 references:
- 1949 - 1950 was a real shock for the occident, as the USSR experimented the nuclear bomb. I put it in parrallel with the 2007-2008 panic on the stock market. On MY point of view, this was the first REAL panic (based on a real corrupted SYSTEM, not only one bank or one country). So 2008 was the time the world discovered that banks had "nuclear weapons" (just an image) to destroy us and that they were non-cooperative, and that, in fact, the governments couldn't do anything against them.. Even if is an image, it has a lot of common points.
- 1953 was a real shock for the US, with the end of the Korean war (false end). On my knowledge this bad story has had a bigger impact than the end of the vietnam war. Let's see was is going to happen 58 years later in 2011...
What is your opinion?
Regards
Basics of Generational Theory
FRANCE and Basics of Generational Theory
Could you give me some text to read on the fifth turning point??
As you know, for France, I think that WWII was an Awakening war and there were NO reset.
Because of the stupid Desden attack, I think there was a reset for GB.
This means that France has had its fifth turning point.
So what will happen between Germany (in its first part of a Crisis Era) and France after its fifth turning point (with corrupted budget, as much as Greece, and which is no more a democraty but a "StreetCracy" (my own expression to say that the government decides and then MOVES back if people go on the street, where, now, most people don't even know why they are there, (this is new, those no-brain demonstrators)))
Regards
In insist on France, because the open conflict between Germany and France could very well be the answer to what is going to happen to Europe within the next 10 years.
As you know, for France, I think that WWII was an Awakening war and there were NO reset.
Because of the stupid Desden attack, I think there was a reset for GB.
This means that France has had its fifth turning point.
So what will happen between Germany (in its first part of a Crisis Era) and France after its fifth turning point (with corrupted budget, as much as Greece, and which is no more a democraty but a "StreetCracy" (my own expression to say that the government decides and then MOVES back if people go on the street, where, now, most people don't even know why they are there, (this is new, those no-brain demonstrators)))
Regards
In insist on France, because the open conflict between Germany and France could very well be the answer to what is going to happen to Europe within the next 10 years.
Re: Basics of Generational Theory
Burt, give me a little time. You've asked some complicated questions,
and I'm going to have to think about them.
John
and I'm going to have to think about them.
John
Re: Basics of Generational Theory
No problem, take your time, thank you for this short answer.John wrote:Burt, give me a little time. You've asked some complicated questions,
and I'm going to have to think about them.
John
a question behind is: please be my teacher on generational dynamics, it is quite sophisticated (much more than what I thought at the beginning) and as you say: taking "cherry picks" doesn't help (this works also about taking "cherry picks" of the Theory.
So my question on panic is more or less "can we cross check the different types of panics"?
Today the press is VERY confusing and mix different concepts for one problem, so analysing the medias takes some time.
It tooks me 1 week to understand the European problem with the Greece (even if I have an economic education), and 3 days to understand the real incompetence of the governments in Europe after the valcano problem (I'm an engineer and physicist, so I understood the problem immediatly, but not the official answer, and neither the panic in the airports).
The actual confusion in the media makes me thinking "Yes, people tend to panic as long as symboles are similar, and emotions can be similar".
This is a "feeling", but it is linked, for me, with this period of Crisis. It would have been false 30 years ago.
Regards
USA and Basics of Generational Theory
Another note: I'm not sure that WWII was a crisis war for the USA, for the pacific, yes, but:
- Look at people (americans) coming to Europe, if you read the reports (not the propagande) and speak with people alive who can remember this period, you keep 2 ideas from the american people: Their kindness and their new ideas, Europe would have been dead after these 2 wars, without these 2 factors that the americans brought.
- Look at middle east, the american came with new ideas and enthousiasm to make the people working together, even it was manipulated by their own governments and even if part was propagande.
- Even today, the ideas in human ressources in Europe (not the reality, but the ideas) come ALL from this period of time.
- The sprit in which the first nuclear bomb was made: It was a false panic provocated by people coming from Germany: Hitler didn't believe in the nuclear power and didn't allocate money and people to the project, so the project was at a very rough stage when the americans arrive in Germany. Plus: the order of launching the bomb on Hiroshima was based on the idea that it could SAVE men's live, also japanese, it was not done to punish anyone. This was an unnecessary act, because Japan was about to collapse, BUT the war was so awful in the pacific, that anything that could have been done to stop it would have been accepted.
- The fact that the US people arriving in Japan did anything they could to help the Japan to rebuild itself.
It looks very much like a Recovery era for the people who came to Europe (and even was it a crisis war in pacific????, I believe it was because it hurt all the people who made it, but?), and this is consistent with the crisis war that was, in my mind, the 1929-1930 shock.
What do you think?
Still with the USA, which, for me, is a set of countries (my experience is that it is NOT a real country with ONE mind, as the author of "The nine nations of North America" writes, by the way), I have a double experience, one with people, very very constructive, one with the government, which, from the true begining, acts like an imperial hard goverment.
And I do not even mention here the fact that the US supports huge waves of immigration from different countries of the world, which means an overlap between different cultures, in term of the Generational Theory for the future.
I have to think always at 2 or 3 levels when one speaks to me about the US, a very complicated and very interesting land, as a matter of fact.
Regards
- Look at people (americans) coming to Europe, if you read the reports (not the propagande) and speak with people alive who can remember this period, you keep 2 ideas from the american people: Their kindness and their new ideas, Europe would have been dead after these 2 wars, without these 2 factors that the americans brought.
- Look at middle east, the american came with new ideas and enthousiasm to make the people working together, even it was manipulated by their own governments and even if part was propagande.
- Even today, the ideas in human ressources in Europe (not the reality, but the ideas) come ALL from this period of time.
- The sprit in which the first nuclear bomb was made: It was a false panic provocated by people coming from Germany: Hitler didn't believe in the nuclear power and didn't allocate money and people to the project, so the project was at a very rough stage when the americans arrive in Germany. Plus: the order of launching the bomb on Hiroshima was based on the idea that it could SAVE men's live, also japanese, it was not done to punish anyone. This was an unnecessary act, because Japan was about to collapse, BUT the war was so awful in the pacific, that anything that could have been done to stop it would have been accepted.
- The fact that the US people arriving in Japan did anything they could to help the Japan to rebuild itself.
It looks very much like a Recovery era for the people who came to Europe (and even was it a crisis war in pacific????, I believe it was because it hurt all the people who made it, but?), and this is consistent with the crisis war that was, in my mind, the 1929-1930 shock.
What do you think?
Still with the USA, which, for me, is a set of countries (my experience is that it is NOT a real country with ONE mind, as the author of "The nine nations of North America" writes, by the way), I have a double experience, one with people, very very constructive, one with the government, which, from the true begining, acts like an imperial hard goverment.
And I do not even mention here the fact that the US supports huge waves of immigration from different countries of the world, which means an overlap between different cultures, in term of the Generational Theory for the future.
I have to think always at 2 or 3 levels when one speaks to me about the US, a very complicated and very interesting land, as a matter of fact.
Regards
Last edited by burt on Fri May 21, 2010 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Grey Badger
- Posts: 176
- Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:50 pm
Re: Basics of Generational Theory
The reference to "Nine Nations" rings a bell, because the massive anti-immigration sentiment the media are making so much of is concentrated in the heart of MexAmerica. I have a friend from Eastern Oregon who keeps pointing out to me that rural blue-collar Boomers her neck of the woods did not live like and were not reared as your typical Boomer. Some of John's style of discourse and stated values that seem half-familiar and half-alien to me are Yankee values.
Everyone has tracked the red/blue divide by state, with keener observers reminding us we need to track it by county as well. Suppose even among red and blue there are regional nuances?
New Mexico, which should be core MexAmerica but actually has a lot of Rocky Mountain influence (we look to Denver far more than to LA, and about as much or a bit more than to Phoenix), had adopted an entirely different take on immigration, frex, than Arizona, because a huge number of our native Hispanics have been here since the 16th Century. (Their families. Unless there's a Highlander among them.) And are very proud of the fact.
And I still remember what an Englishwoman said, writing in the 1930s, "The provinces are a generation behind London, and the outlying areas a generation behind the provinces ... you can see a difference of a century between the most remote rural areas and the heart of London." Quote from memory and not really exact. This was when England was a small island and had the railroad and radio, but mass communications had not yet taken hold. As someone said incredulously on the Heyer list "They didn't have a telephone or electricity? When was this novel SET?" The 1930s. And Vera Britten, aWWI nurse, describes an Artist-like rearing.
I wonder how many large continental empires like our own have similar regional generational divides even in this age of instant mass communications? I think we may. Russia? China? India, I'm reasonably sure, does.
Everyone has tracked the red/blue divide by state, with keener observers reminding us we need to track it by county as well. Suppose even among red and blue there are regional nuances?
New Mexico, which should be core MexAmerica but actually has a lot of Rocky Mountain influence (we look to Denver far more than to LA, and about as much or a bit more than to Phoenix), had adopted an entirely different take on immigration, frex, than Arizona, because a huge number of our native Hispanics have been here since the 16th Century. (Their families. Unless there's a Highlander among them.) And are very proud of the fact.
And I still remember what an Englishwoman said, writing in the 1930s, "The provinces are a generation behind London, and the outlying areas a generation behind the provinces ... you can see a difference of a century between the most remote rural areas and the heart of London." Quote from memory and not really exact. This was when England was a small island and had the railroad and radio, but mass communications had not yet taken hold. As someone said incredulously on the Heyer list "They didn't have a telephone or electricity? When was this novel SET?" The 1930s. And Vera Britten, aWWI nurse, describes an Artist-like rearing.
I wonder how many large continental empires like our own have similar regional generational divides even in this age of instant mass communications? I think we may. Russia? China? India, I'm reasonably sure, does.
Re: USA and Basics of Generational Theory
I would just like to correct this one point. The Germans very much did have an Atomic Bomb program, but it was scaled back because of negative results. Specifically the Germans' did not take into account the energies of the neutrons (fast vs thermal). This oversight prevented them from even considering moderating material. This wasn't known until after the war and is still the source of speculation that Heisenberg purposefully did the experiments wrong to prevent the Nazis from obtaining the bomb. Everyone knew that had Hitler had the bomb, he would most certainly would have used it. Consider his last scorched earth order rather than surrender as well as of course the "final solution". For Hitler and even the Allied leadership, this was most certainly a genocidal war. The Allies bombing of Dresden and other cities killed more than the Atomic bomb.burt wrote: - The sprit in which the first nuclear bomb was made: It was a false panic provocated by people coming from Germany: Hitler didn't believe in the nuclear power and didn't allocate money and people to the project, so the project was at a very rough stage when the americans arrive in Germany. Plus: the order of launching the bomb on Hiroshima was based on the idea that it could SAVE men's live, also japanese, it was not done to punish anyone. This was an unnecessary act, because Japan was about to collapse, BUT the war was so awful in the pacific, that anything that could have been done to stop it would have been accepted.
Re: USA and Basics of Generational Theory
Thank you for your correction, a good one.
I made also a separation between Pacific which was, for me (but I wait for the answer of John), a genocidal war, and Europe, where the US had to fight the madness and the Hitler's genocidal war (which doesn't mean that is was one for them).
US made very few attempts to kill anyone, on the contrary of the bombing of Dresden which was a decision from an ENGLISH general, NOT an US one.
I'm not so conviced of the madness of US troups, as it should have been if it had became an genocidal war for THEM.
We can see this full madness of killing ANYONE, including it's own troup in WWI, inside the Austro-german troups and the French troups.
But this was WWI, and it happenend for Germany too in WWII. For the US troups, I havn't found yet a report which tells me the same thing for the US in WWII.
WWI was an atrocity for most of the Europe, and I consider it is the starting point of the unability in people to believe in ANY government by now. This can come back, on my point of view, only by a far-right dictatorship in Europe, and a new mass extinction that these people are going to make. It is on the way now, so don't worry, WWI and WWII were only experiments... (that is black humor).. Hopefully nobody knows the future and the young generation can always change that.
Regards
Correct, and I agree on the technical part, BUT not enough money, neither human nor technical ressouces (hopefully for us) was put on the project (on contrary of the Manhattan project), because Hitler didn't believe in it. Don't forget he made the choice to invest on rockects ALL of its ressources. You cannot have ressource for everything (even if our financials today try to make think so... only humor, nothing to do with the subject). That is all what I said.xakzen wrote: The Germans very much did have an Atomic Bomb program, but it was scaled back because of negative results.
That is certain, so we were all lucky that Hitler didn't get it, that was NOT the purpose of ma sentence.xakzen wrote:Everyone knew that had Hitler had the bomb, he would most certainly would have used it.
Yes, but what I said is that US is a specific case, not all the Allied were necessary to put in the same box.xakzen wrote:For Hitler and even the Allied leadership, this was most certainly a genocidal war. The Allies bombing of Dresden and other cities killed more than the Atomic bomb.
I made also a separation between Pacific which was, for me (but I wait for the answer of John), a genocidal war, and Europe, where the US had to fight the madness and the Hitler's genocidal war (which doesn't mean that is was one for them).
US made very few attempts to kill anyone, on the contrary of the bombing of Dresden which was a decision from an ENGLISH general, NOT an US one.
I'm not so conviced of the madness of US troups, as it should have been if it had became an genocidal war for THEM.
We can see this full madness of killing ANYONE, including it's own troup in WWI, inside the Austro-german troups and the French troups.
But this was WWI, and it happenend for Germany too in WWII. For the US troups, I havn't found yet a report which tells me the same thing for the US in WWII.
WWI was an atrocity for most of the Europe, and I consider it is the starting point of the unability in people to believe in ANY government by now. This can come back, on my point of view, only by a far-right dictatorship in Europe, and a new mass extinction that these people are going to make. It is on the way now, so don't worry, WWI and WWII were only experiments... (that is black humor).. Hopefully nobody knows the future and the young generation can always change that.
Regards
Re: Basics of Generational Theory
Yes, and do you know the book? Any generation IS different depending on where it lives, BUT the question in this forum is WHEN was the last crisis war (and I'm here to learn)? For most people in the US, I think it was 1930, I'd be happy to have infirmation or confirmation of this fact (as a fact), I maybe wrong and I'd appeciate remarks because, as I said, I do not live in the US, even if I know this continent not too bad, I do not live there so I have a lot to learn about it.The Grey Badger wrote:The reference to "Nine Nations" rings a bell, because the massive anti-immigration sentiment the media are making so much of is concentrated in the heart of MexAmerica. I have a friend from Eastern Oregon who keeps pointing out to me that rural blue-collar Boomers her neck of the woods did not live like and were not reared as your typical Boomer. Some of John's style of discourse and stated values that seem half-familiar and half-alien to me are Yankee values.
I believe that the mass communication has nothing to do here (may be am I wrong), I believe the main factor is immigration, it is not at all the same, having read books OR Internet on a country, and having been somewhere and having taken a large part of his time to speak whith people and is is also another thing to LIVE somewhere, the reality cannot be mixed with the virtuality.The Grey Badger wrote:I wonder how many large continental empires like our own have similar regional generational divides even in this age of instant mass communications? I think we may. Russia? China? India, I'm reasonably sure, does.
So the question would be, how many countries (or regions) have a large immigration coming from all over the world, they are very, very very few.
NORTH KOREA and Basics of Generational Theory
John, by the way, WHY do you set the Crisis War of North Korea at WWII and NOT in 1953, when this catastrophic war of Korea stopped withoout stopping, and where human lifes was strictly without any importance for people in North Korea (as long as I read the story correctly)???
Regards
PS Anyway 2011 is 58 years after 1953, so I expect some panic in the World, the most plausible one could come from your own hypothesis, which I find very reasonnable, the invasion of North Korea by China. It could be done on a very clever way saying it will HELP Nato to stabilize the world. It wouldn't have ANY consequence... but the world would panic... Let's see...
Regards
PS Anyway 2011 is 58 years after 1953, so I expect some panic in the World, the most plausible one could come from your own hypothesis, which I find very reasonnable, the invasion of North Korea by China. It could be done on a very clever way saying it will HELP Nato to stabilize the world. It wouldn't have ANY consequence... but the world would panic... Let's see...
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