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What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:58 pm
by Alosito79
This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and Homelanders should it go the wrong way.
As well as if there have been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

Your thoughts?

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:51 pm
by John
Alosito79 wrote: > This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and
> what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and
> Homelanders should it go the wrong way. As well as if there have
> been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

> Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

> Your thoughts?
Well, we're headed for WW III. I've estimated that 3-4 billion people
will die in the war, from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons,
ground war, riots, disease and famine, leaving behind 4 billion people
to hold an international peace conference and rebuild the world. I
don't know whether you view that as ending badly or well.

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:22 pm
by Alosito79
John wrote:
Alosito79 wrote: > This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and
> what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and
> Homelanders should it go the wrong way. As well as if there have
> been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

> Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

> Your thoughts?
Well, we're headed for WW III. I've estimated that 3-4 billion people
will die in the war, from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons,
ground war, riots, disease and famine, leaving behind 4 billion people
to hold an international peace conference and rebuild the world. I
don't know whether you view that as ending badly or well.
That seems to be like a real catastrophic crisis. So we could have a Civil War Anamoly in which the foor soldiers become Artist because they’ll be disinterested after WWIII.

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:11 pm
by falopex
Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not pretty.

As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on fighting.

But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in time for the next Crisis Era.

I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger International War.

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:02 am
by John
** 30-Apr-2019 International War vs Civil War
falopex wrote: > Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end
> up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has
> happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the
> generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and
> Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not
> pretty.

> As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I
> don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth
> Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at
> the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the
> Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have
> climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no
> longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity
> Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the
> population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on
> fighting.

> But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new
> grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down
> through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in
> time for the next Crisis Era.

> I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society
> in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War
> at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved
> first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger
> International War. Ray Henry (falopex)
In China in the 1930s, there was a civil war going on between the
Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, and the Communists, led by Mao
Zedong. Once Japan invaded and World War II began, the civil war was
paused and a "United Front" was formed to fight the Japanese.
Actually, the Communists took advantage of the situation by allowing
the Nationalists to fight the Japanese alone, so they would be
weakened. Once Japan was defeated, the civil war resumed and the
Communists won.

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:31 pm
by Alosito79
John wrote:** 30-Apr-2019 International War vs Civil War
falopex wrote: > Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end
> up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has
> happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the
> generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and
> Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not
> pretty.

> As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I
> don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth
> Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at
> the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the
> Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have
> climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no
> longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity
> Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the
> population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on
> fighting.

> But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new
> grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down
> through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in
> time for the next Crisis Era.

> I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society
> in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War
> at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved
> first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger
> International War. Ray Henry (falopex)
In China in the 1930s, there was a civil war going on between the
Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, and the Communists, led by Mao
Zedong. Once Japan invaded and World War II began, the civil war was
paused and a "United Front" was formed to fight the Japanese.
Actually, the Communists took advantage of the situation by allowing
the Nationalists to fight the Japanese alone, so they would be
weakened. Once Japan was defeated, the civil war resumed and the
Communists won.
Depending on point of view was the crisis end badly or a mixture for China?

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 12:26 pm
by Lesteraction123
The Civil War will typically tend to be resolved first if a society in a Crisis Era is fighting both an International War and a Civil War at the same time, as the society grows desperate to survive the larger International War. However, this is just my personal hypothesis.

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 10:19 am
by Bob Butler
Alosito79 wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:31 pm
Depending on point of view was the crisis end badly or a mixture for China?
My spin has Mao winning the China civil war. He ended up in charge of mainland China. Every once in a while Marx is right. Colonial Imperialism with a puppet government is so bad that you need a revolution. This seems to be the case with China. However, this does not make autocratic government better than democratic. The evolution of government in China continues.