A US civil war

[Reality Check]

The Philippines don't have a very strong military, so they'd be able to succeed if we didn't do anything about it. What will make things more difficult than they think it would is their inexperience in external wars.

The United States Navy can not be everywhere at once.

There is little doubt China could time an invasion to land enough ground troops on Taiwan or the Philippines to Occupy the main cities.

The question is what happens when they attempt to resupply and reinforce those troops.

There is a lot more ocean to cross for the Chinese navy to support and resupply a Philippines occupation force than a Taiwan occupation force. The U.S. navy and the U.S. Air force are very, very good at sinking ships on the open sea.

Almost every other country in the region would look at a Chinese attack on an independent country like the Philippines and say I may be next. China has much to lose and little to gain by occupying the Philippines before occupying Taiwan.

[Reality Check]

President Obama would find it far easier to appease China after China occupied Taiwan than to appease them after they occupied the Philippines.

Obama is a lawyer and he could note that legally both the United States and the United Nations recognize Taiwan as part of the country of China.

Obama could also note that Taiwan is very close to China and it would be very dangerous for the U.S. Navy to attack the Chinese navy between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland.

Obama could negotiate a treaty where the Chinese promised to treat Chinese citizens in Taiwan just as well as China treated Chinese citizens in Hong Kong, thus allowing Obama to declare he, Obama, was a hero because he secured "peace in our time", even though the Chinese military remained in control of Taiwan.

[Reality Check]

President Obama would find it much harder to appease a Chinese invasion and occupation of the Philippines.

The Philippines is an independent country to which China has no historic claim. The Philippines was a former protectorate of the United States. The Philippine army and the U.S. army fought side by side against the Japanese in World War II.

Individual citizens of the Philippines still volunteer and serve in all Branches of the United States Military.

Appeasing China and giving them the Philippines would also be giving the Chinese total control of the South China Sea.

Other countries in the Region who depend on the South China Sea being international waters would view the appeasement by the United States as selling them out. Japan, India, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Burma are some of the countries that depend on the South China Sea remaining international waters.

The United States military would be able to provide Obama effective options to drive the Chinese out of the Philippines.

[Reality Check]

China might hope that United States would simply decline to fight over Taiwan or Philippines.

China would also have to consider the possibility that the U.S. would fight.

China would not want to suffer a defeat. If they started something and then were forced to retreat, they would lose face.

China would reasonably conclude that even if the U.S. chose to fight, the Chinese would be more likely to have an overwhelming victory in Taiwan.

Occupying the Philippines would be much likelier to succeed AFTER China occupied Taiwan and built military installations, including air fields, on Taiwan and the Islands between Taiwan and the Philippines. Taiwan proper is closer to the Philippines than the rest of China. The string of Islands between Taiwan and the Philippines provide opportunities for Chinese airfields and Chinese anti-ship missile bases that are much closer to the Philippines.

[Reality Check]

Hainan Island (where China has large bases already) is very close to the Philippines.

Actually Hainan Island is farther away from the Philippines than mainland China. And much farther away than Taiwan.

It's not worth an argument over, but the distance from Luzon is about the same whether from Hainan or the mainland.

So that readers are not confused by opinions containing adjectives rather than numbers:

The distance from the Chinese Hainan Island ( Bamen Gang, Hainan Island, China )
646.8 Miles 19° 36' 47" Lat. 110° 49' 28" Long. to 18° 11' 56" Lat. 120° 35' 36" Long.

distance from Chinese Mainland ( Port City of Huilai, Near City of Shantou, China )
434.0 Miles 23° 2' 12" Lat. 116° 17' 26" Long. to 18° 11' 56" Lat. 120° 35' 36" Long.

distance from Tawain ( City of Cape Eluanbi, Southern Taiwan)
257 Miles 21° 53' 49'' Lat. 120° 51' 27'' Long. to 18° 11' 56" Lat. 120° 35' 36" Long.

All Distances are to Laoag City, Phillipines ( Northwest corner of Island of Luzon, Philippines - nearest to China )

[Reality Check]

Hainan Island (where China has large bases already) is very close to the Philippines.

For comparison purposes:

Hainan to Philippines:
> 600 Miles

Chinese Mainland to Northwestern Taiwan
< 150 Miles

[psCargile]

In regards to Chinese military action against the US in the South China Sea, how well will they fare against the US submarine fleet?