A US civil war

[thomasglee]

Well, the first act of appeasement was Hitler retaking the Rhineland in 1934, so it was used for about 5 years before Britain and France decided to take action. If China goes after the Philippines, we'll scream and condemn the action, but I'm not sure we'd intervene militarily.

Maybe I am just hung up on the Philippines as a first military adventure for China, but ...

China is the worlds only ground army super power.

The United States is the worlds only blue navy super power.

The Philippines has no mainland and has no land bridge to mainland China.

Attacking and occupying the Philippines requires China's blue navy support and supply Chinese ground armies strung across a series of islands cutoff from each other.

China attacking and occupying the Philippine Islands as part of China's first military adventure would be inviting a Sea Battle with the U.S. far from the Chinese mainland where even a tie for China is a loss for China.

We can hope China is that stupid, but I would not count on it.

Once China has airbases and sea ports in South Vietnam and South Korea occupying the Philippines makes much more sense.

A couple of points.

Hainan Island (where China has large bases already) is very close to the Philippines. Much closer than South Korea and about the same distance, or closer, from Vietnam.

Also, one reason we are putting bases in northern Australia is because our "blue water Navy", has all but been rendered inept by the threat from China's supersonic anti-ship missiles. Especially when it comes to operating in a nearly closed off South China Sea. If Japan could occupy and control the Philippines 70 years ago, China can surely occupy and control the Philippines today.

However, I think most of us do not necessarily envision the main islands of the Philippines being the first level of appeasement. I believe their claims over the South China Sea will be the first level. I believe at some point, we will basically agree with China that those waters are their domain.

[Reality Check]

Taiwan also has blue water between it and mainland China but it is much closer to mainland China.

More importantly, China has airbases and conventional, anti-ship, ballistic missile basses on the mainland that can cover China's blue navy between Taiwan and mainland China.

China believes that these missiles and aircraft prevent the U.S. Navy carrier battle groups from operating between mainland China and Taiwan during a military conflict.

True, or not, this belief would strongly favor China attacking Taiwan as their first military adventure.

The United States would also be far more likely to appease China on Taiwan than on China attacking and occupying the Philippines.

Appeasing China on the Philippines would be capitulating to China's claim that all of the South China Sea is sovereign Chinese territory.

Other nations that depend on the South China Sea being international waters would conclude the United States is not trustworthy.

Japan, India, Indonesia, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Burma are some of the countries that would feel betrayed by such a capitulation on the part of the United States.

[Reality Check]

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[Reality Check]

Hainan Island (where China has large bases already) is very close to the Philippines.

Actually Hainan Island is farther away from the Philippines than mainland China. And much farther away than Taiwan.

Hainan Island is on the edge of the Tonkin Gulf next to North Vietnam.

[Trevor]

China's navy isn't far from a blue-water navy. Given a few more years, they'll have one; it's already more than doubled over the past 15 years. The Philippines might be able to come up with some measure of resistance, but I don't see them lasting long against a determined Chinese attack.

They may believe that their ballistic missiles could seal of the South China Sea, but assumptions don't get you very far in warfare. We haven't had a major naval conflict for close to 70 years. I don't think conventional missiles are going to be enough to sink a carrier, at least not without hitting it many, many times. One of our old carriers managed to sustain 4 weeks of missile and torpedo attacks before being sunk. It's why they're coming up with this 10-ton missile; that's about what it would take and even then, i'd say it would take a few hits.

[Reality Check]

China's navy isn't far from a blue-water navy..

China already has a blue water navy. No doubt about that. They are conducting anti-piracy actions in the Red Sea and off of Africa. They also so have bases outside of China.

My point is there is only one super power blue water navy in the world today, and China would not be likely to voluntarily choose to challenge that super power navy on the open seas, without massive air cover.

[Trevor]

Problem is, they may decide that we do not have the will to do anything if they decide to invade, whether their target is Taiwan, the Philippines, or somebody else. If war broke out today, we could win, although it'd be more difficult than many suspect. A few years from now, though, it may be a different story.

[Reality Check]

If Japan could occupy and control the Philippines 70 years ago, China can surely occupy and control the Philippines today.

Japan did invade the Philippines in 1941. At the time Japan invaded the Philippines mainland China, South Korea, South Vietnam and Taiwan were all Japanese territory.

In addition, at the time of the invasion the undisputed, and only, super power navy in the Pacific Ocean was the Japanese navy.

This later was true because the Japanese had just sank half the U.S. Pacific fleet and most of the British Pacific fleet in the days before the invasion of the Philippines.

Japan spent decades occupying other parts of the Pacific before invading the Philippines.

China, today, lacks a super power class blue water navy, lacks Taiwan, lacks South Vietnam, Lacks South Korea and likely knows history a little better than you or I.

So I believe you reinforced the point I was trying to make: China is not likely to invade and occupy the Philippines Islands as their first military adventure.

[John]

However, I think most of us do not necessarily envision the main islands of the Philippines being the first level of appeasement. I believe their claims over the South China Sea will be the first level. I believe at some point, we will basically agree with China that those waters are their domain.

Could you clarify this?

Are you saying that in your circle it's accepted that Scarborough Shoal
is Chinese territory?

John

[Reality Check]

However, I think most of us do not necessarily envision the main islands of the Philippines being the first level of appeasement. I believe their claims over the South China Sea will be the first level. I believe at some point, we will basically agree with China that those waters are their domain.

The type of appeasement being discussed here is the classic, historic kind.

Germany invaded the German speaking portion of Czechoslovakia before World War II. The super power of the day, Great Britain, negotiated with Germany and signed a treaty allowing Germany to keep the captured territory in return for a promise not to do it again.