How long?

[Trevor]

Right now, I'm wondering: how long is it going to be before Spain, Italy, or both of them are going to need a major bailout? Yeah, Spain received a small one, although they're not referring to it as a "bailout". I mean a full scale, trillion dollar package like what was spent on Greece?

Personally, I think it'll be by the end of the year.

[Marc]

Good question, Trevor. If past recent patterns of Eurozone nations in financial distress, coupled with the financial heft of the nations you're talking about is taken into account, I feel no later than 2013. A major bailout of Spain and Italy may be engineered to occur sometime after November, 2012 (that is, after the US presidential election), so that there is less political liability regarding how the Fed and other US-related entities might be able to help with this. And, probably like you, I don't feel that it can occur too much after this time, being that the credit profiles of Spain and Italy are apt to really deteriorate by that time. Of course, others might have different perspectives here. Again, good question there, one which certainly weighs heavily on many politicians' minds. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

The Fed's done about as much as they can do. Kept us limping along for a while, but that's about to end. We've at 1.5 percent growth and usually that means a recession follows in a short period of time.

I fully expect both Spain and Italy to be in junk territory by the end of the year, though, at the rate they're going. A bailout won't be far behind.

[Marc]

While some might disagree with me here, I think that the Fed (and quite possibly its ECB counterpart) may start pulling rabbits out of hats that would do the best financial engineers proud, and that such fancy actions may well carry the US for at least a few more years — maybe even significantly longer than that. However, eventually the proverbial road will be run out of, and we are looking at a financial crash at that juncture that will put all prior financial crashes to shame, I strongly feel. Again, this probably makes me a contrarian, but barring a bunch of nukes from China aimed at the West, I'm thinking that we'll putter along surprisingly longer than some think, although again, I could be wrong about that. Thanks for the perspective, though. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

They've pulled out most of the rabbits. They might be able to do a little more, but most of the cards have already been played. There's now added pressure as China has slowed to 7.6 percent and I expect that to be lower by the end of the year. It's working as a chain reaction.

I think that the Euro could survive until the end of the year, but I don't see it surviving 2013.

[sarahS4621]

I believe that every country will eventually need a bailout and yet when it comes time for us to be bailed out no one will be there. It is no different from world tragedies where we are there to pick up the pieces and yet when we have a tragedy we are walking on our own.

[Antonio]

I believe that every country will eventually need a bailout and yet when it comes time for us to be bailed out no one will be there. It is no different from world tragedies where we are there to pick up the pieces and yet when we have a tragedy we are walking on our own.

I think that if we go back deeply in the origin of economy that is a human reaction to manage the scarcity of goods we will see that it's impossible that all counties be in financial problems ! so if we are in an aqualized distribution of goods (utopic) or that countries grew up in favor of some othors !

[hunterG7343]

Even if they receive it, they will try to cover it up. Those kind of things killed Greek tourism, cause nobody wants to go to the country where there are unsatisfied masses trying to make their position better with violence. Maybe the Spain have already received it..

[Trevor]

I'm sure they'll try, but those kind of things come out. Instead, they'll try to minimize the impact, say it's not a big deal, and that they're on the road to recovery. It's been going on for 3 years now and I see no reason for that to change, not until everything collapses.