Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:48 pm

A google search shows that the above has only been quoted twice on the Internet. It's just not relevant or interesting to the herd. S&P 3000, on the other hand, is quite mesmerizing to the herd.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 8646
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Postby John » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:12 pm

** 10-Jul-2019 Debbie Downer

Higgenbotham wrote:> A google search shows that the above has only been quoted twice on
> the Internet. It's just not relevant or interesting to the herd.
> S&P 3000, on the other hand, is quite mesmerizing to the
> herd.


The market is just about to reach a new all-time high. That's so
exciting!!! I don't understand why you have to be such a Debbie
Downer.

Image
    Debbie Downer

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Postby John » Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:05 pm

** 10-Jul-2019 Recession in Germany

EuroIntel:

The official data remain mixed, but we are now seeing an increase in
recession signals coming out of Germany. This is confirmed by the
latest labour-market trends and by output cuts in German industry. FAZ
has the story this morning that BASF, one of the bellwethers of the
health of German industry, announced an unexpected downward revision
of its profits - a 30% cut from last year, as opposed to a previously
expected 10% increase. The German chemical industry is traditionally
an early cycle indicator. It is not a perfect one of course, but a
sustained downturn in that industry is always meaningful. Strong
demand from the car industry - for paints and plastics - has been a
source of stability until recently, but the car industry itself has
now joined the downward trend. Exports have been falling for 18 months
now. The German engineering and electrical industry is also warning of
a move into recession. These are Germany's three largest industrial
sectors.

We prefer the broader recession metrics - GDP, employment, industrial
output and retail sales - over the shorthand definition of two
negative consecutive quarters of negative growth. There are now signs
of a more broadly-based downturn - at least in Germany - as the labour
market is turning. BASF is planning 6000 job cuts. Ford Germany is
about to cut 5400 jobs, VW is cutting 7000, and Thyssen-Krupp, Siemens
and Bayer are also planning cuts. Most of these cuts do not come in
the form of dismissals.

But the impact on the labour market is already significant. The fall
in German unemployment has levelled out. The amount of so-called
short-time work is increasing. This is a measure under German labour
law that allows companies and workers to agree a reduction in weekly
working hours for up to 12 months, during which the lost income is
partly compensated for by state payouts. A rise in short-time work is
an early indicator of a shift in the labour market - it is the buffer
zone between falling and rising unemployment. The German economy is
now in that middle ground - not in a recession yet, but with clear
danger signs. The latest survey results suggest that more companies
are planning increases in short-time work, including the car industry
where 16% of companies are about to introduce cuts in working
hours. Car production is down by 12% in terms of unit sales. Exports
are down by 15%. In contrast to 2008, demand has not suddenly fallen
off the cliff, but this is a more gradual and sustained decline.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 4606
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:26 pm

John wrote:Image
    Debbie Downer


:lol:

How's that?
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 4606
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:37 pm

Wharton Grad Confuses Libor And Libra During Powell Hearing


This would be

:lol:

if it weren't so

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby aeden » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:59 am

When the AGM-114 Hellfires fly on cyrptocurrency farms then we can talk recessionary headwinds.

For now and as before the Consumer will be the arbiter of these discussions.

For now as in the effective date of 1st July 2014 real-time LIBOR rate information is calculated and published by ICE Benchmark Administration.
You cannot question dark pool money since REG Q anyways. The current version of Regulation Q was enacted in 2013.

My current cash account as noted was 50 cash /50 stock|fixed bond carry pass through and pays ~2.10%

We are in the dnfiu market period into december.

book three ytd 24.3%
book one ytd 5.1%
book two cash pays 2.10%

As of 06/30/2019 and again dnfiu

Those reserves are for what we discussed as reg T and the SEC significantly reformed Rule 2a-7, a regulation governing money market funds.
Among other requirements, these reforms required money market funds to hold significant liquidity and imposed stricter maturity limits. The thought map to cover the margin debt leverages we discussed and are well aware of as claims while the SEC Permits Portfolio Margining of Credit Default Swaps. I think of it as playing poker in a whirlwind but the release of those funds is the transitory holding from the 1983 of intent in the CCI program policy framework that already existed so that rings true if we like it or not.

As we know since MARKIT clearing transparency thought maps etn are day to day hedges.
Think quant since they forgot what was last week anyways.

But we digress: after all there is the "fake news" media to blame for any incorrect call.
The only thing that can get worse is the thought map of thinking they are democrats.

Lower interest rates are not going to support growth, just enclaves that crater the core to social malinvestment.

There is no difference between communism and socialism,
except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force,
socialism by vote.
It is merely the difference between murder and suicide.

https://youtu.be/Sp_LA2qE4aM

The piggyback globalist have screwed in bright spots they consider correct. Find them, "supply side" and you find the problem
or adjustments you need to pursue. Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:30 pm
You had no clue then and as we warned you suffered the whirlwind.
Marxism is based in large part on three influences: Hegel's dialectics, French utopian socialism and English economics.


aeden
Posts: 2650
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby aeden » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:00 pm

Speaker Pelosi today indicated plans to deliver a package that would combine a 2-year budget that extends spending levels with an increase in the debt ceiling. Whether the Senate will pass the suggested package is unclear.

None of this matters, however, as the real reason why the Fed is launching rate cuts, which will eventually culminate with ZIRP and QE is that the Fed will soon have to step in and start monetizing US debt whose issuance is set to explode in 2020 and onward, especially since foreign buyers, as the TBAC warned several months ago, have not added to their net US Treasury holdings in years, and with China set to post a current account deficit this year, the last thing China will focus on is buying US debt when it will need foreigners to buy its own bond issuance instead...

As we have noted numerous times, it's not the economy, or trade, or earnings, or sentiment... it's central bank liquidity, stupid!
T

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=gcNR5PUq

jcsok
Posts: 106
Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:51 am

Re: Financial topics

Postby jcsok » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:01 am

HIg....OK, I reread the Gann article, and (sigh), I'm going to wait longer, but I'm really tired and antsy to short this thing. I'm a terrible trader, to not have identified this continuing trend since I was last short at approx 1500.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 4606
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:50 pm

jcsok wrote:HIg....OK, I reread the Gann article, and (sigh), I'm going to wait longer, but I'm really tired and antsy to short this thing. I'm a terrible trader, to not have identified this continuing trend since I was last short at approx 1500.


OK, the short term whisper from Chicago is wait till closes under ESU 3004.

I've noted that short term we have a Low-High-High of 14 trading days from the June low which a close under 3004 in the next couple days would confirm.

My take is you're a great trader to have stayed out from 1500.

As for me, I am short 15 lots but am doing a lot of back and forth on 5 (20 to 15 to 20, etc.)
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.


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