Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Postby vincecate » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 am

John wrote:** 06-Nov-2019 World View: Deficit
I really have to laugh every day when I see some politician or analyst
or pundit say that "some day" we're going to have to start reducing
the national debt. It's a big joke. That's never going to happen.
Any politician that says it is completely full of crap.


For sure. I think the smart hedge fund guys all realize that more and more they will just print money to pay the debt. The Fed had to abruptly reverse their gentle attempt to "normalize their balance sheet", so it is clear they can't do that. The question is just how long till most people realize that the debt will be monetized. When the public begins to understand that the debt will just be paid by newly printed money then they will try to get out of bonds and cash into things that do well in inflation. This will help cause the value of the dollar to go down faster and increase the urgency. At some point there will be a stamped.

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Postby vincecate » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:00 am

Higgenbotham wrote:Based on the commentary I read, it seems the market is aware that the Fed will be unable to "normalize its balance sheet", and the $60 billion per month will increase. It seems well understood that the government is running deficits that are greater than the growth rate of the economy and that, without the deficits, growth would be negative, which will not be allowed to occur so long as the deficits can be run with the resulting pseudo-positive growth rate.


Peter Schiff has said he expects the Fed to print money faster and faster, but who else is really saying that? I think there are many more that realize this but don't say it in such plain terms. So far I don't think the market in general thinks there is any danger of this "getting out of control". Like the Fed could stop. In the coming months I think we will see the Fed print faster and faster. The longer it goes on the less other investors will want to hold bonds and the faster the fed will have to print money and buy bonds (or interest rates go up and the government is bankrupt). So I think there is a death spiral coming that the market is not yet reacting to.

"If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it… " - Ray Dalio
https://www.prioritygold.com/ray-dalio- ... economics/

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Postby vincecate » Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:12 am

aeden wrote:What are other people's expectations as far as deflation/stability/inflation of reserve currencies?

Gunpowder. But water will be shut off and food denied.


Usually the government blames the prices going up on greedy capitalists and makes price controls. At the legal prices people can't make money selling food and toilette paper, so there is none in the stores. Then comes the "black market" for food. But then regular commerce is like the drug trade, hunted by the police and not able to use the courts for disputes. People will be shooting each other over food disputes. Hard times.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:38 am

vincecate wrote:Peter Schiff has said he expects the Fed to print money faster and faster, but who else is really saying that? I think there are many more that realize this but don't say it in such plain terms.


Yes, many realize it. That is why I think gold moved in the past year without the benefit of the dollar dropping or a stock bear market or overt inflation. Gold basically moved on its own with no prompting except for the fact of what you state above.

Something I forgot to mention. The hyperinflation will get going in earnest when the US government starts "Universal Basic Income" (or MMT) and free health care for all. That is basically giving away the store to the common people like the Fed did for the banks. It's already happening but these additional giveaways will really accelerate the process.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
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Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:52 am

Higgenbotham wrote:It's already happening but these additional giveaways will really accelerate the process.


What do I mean by it's already happening?

I was listening to Powell explain the other day why they are going to continue with easy money. His explanation was that easy money has gotten many marginal people into the workforce and he has been hearing about that success and wants it to continue.

The Fed used to have a theory and a practice that the optimal unemployment rate is about 5% because there is a certain percentage of workers that are marginal and really unable to be productive. So the Fed wanted to cap the expansion at that level to allow the economy to be productive.

Now it doesn't seem to matter. The Fed will continue with easy money even at an unemployment rate of 3.6%. That sounds like Universal Basic Income to me.

I recently heard from somebody who is getting a CNA certification. I was told that on any given day in the certification course there will be as many as 4 employers who come in and state that anyone who obtains a certificate will be hired at about $12 an hour. You have a certificate and you are employed. That sounds like Universal Basic Income to me.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
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Re: Financial topics

Postby aeden » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:12 pm

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=gqPVQTwU

Well its not like a few avoided this morass. No I am not taking advantage of it either.
We explained the one more scruple effect and taking some poker chips off the table ongoing.
The safety relief valve we know all to well will augur the benchmark ai indications which are flawed
since it was written with the bias indicator all programs will suffer.
The base case is and will be the pretense of knowledge and I learned that lessen recently as I will add to book four
in incremental steps as before.
Clearly we here understood the balance sheet issues and the repo thought map defined by tyler for a polite heads up.
The beta case was and is risk on for well defined carnality going forward.
No they do not care to press the issue with plausible denial and animal spirits leading the way.
Keynes was correct in his missive about a few select Austrian thought maps and the current deluge of debt
and credit effects. The rest of the story was ignored for alleged pragmatic purposes of run it until it breaks as such.
We will effect preservation of capital into the December window as we mentioned in to the actual thaw.
The tautological white noise will run its course separate into the election cycle we garnered as flypaper.
To distill it further preserve capital since only one at a time few will regain sanity as more will not.
Early is wrong for now but why deflate the year into the next is our course for now. Select DCF will be sifted
and as warned secondary and tertiary eliminated. Good luck, it looks thin and will admit we know nothing in this hour.

thread: may 2011
G-T) = (S-I) – NX
(G is government spending, T is taxes, S is savings, I is investment and NX is net exports).
Will not matter until it does as they say guys. Central planning will fail.
MMT pays considerable attention to the operational reality of interactions between government, the central bank,
and the commercial banking sector.

What are other people's expectations as far as deflation/stability/inflation of reserve currencies?

What we seen then and what we ponder today. As we explained earlier this was the Reid file that spilled into cracker Joe.
Nancy and Chuck are up to there collective asses in them crocodiles and yes Kissinger explained the Vinman problem years ago already
as did Thucydides. We only differ on the legal frameworks of Hayek and Keynes adulterated by the hard edges.

tim
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Re: Financial topics

Postby tim » Fri Nov 08, 2019 8:39 am

vincecate wrote:
aeden wrote:What are other people's expectations as far as deflation/stability/inflation of reserve currencies?

Gunpowder. But water will be shut off and food denied.


Usually the government blames the prices going up on greedy capitalists and makes price controls. At the legal prices people can't make money selling food and toilette paper, so there is none in the stores. Then comes the "black market" for food. But then regular commerce is like the drug trade, hunted by the police and not able to use the courts for disputes. People will be shooting each other over food disputes. Hard times.

I don't see gold having any value until after the crisis.

During the Great Depression and World War II the vast majority of Americans were rural with many living on farms. Their communities weren't centralized, there were mom and pop grocery stores that got food from local farmers. How many small family farms are left? Most have been converted into giant corporation farms.

Today most small stores are gone or are on their way out. People depend on Walmart now along with the Walmart trucks hauling food from across the country.

If Walmart's supply chains become interrupted for whatever reason - economic collapse, Chinese military attacks, etc. how many people would immediately go hungry? What are these people going to do? Here is 1 gold coin for a case of Spaghetti-Os?

During the previous crisis America was a largely homogeneous Christian society. Every major American city is filled with foreigners who have little to nothing in common with one another. They don't speak the same languages at home, they don't have the same religion, etc. Do you see these people suddenly uniting under the American flag and coming together? Are the fourth generation food stamp inner city Black American families going to grow a garden with the illegal immigrant Mexican family in that city park?

The grain stockpiles America used to have ready to go for another crisis are gone, the leftists have banned trapping in California and are trying to ban it in other states, hunting is on the decline....

How will the average American feed himself by hunting? White tail deer almost went extinct in parts of America during the Great Depression. How many people will be able to process and store wild game meat without electricity?

Trapping is more efficient then hunting for meat. The American mountain men lived off the land by trapping. As trapping becomes another leftist target it will be a skill that slowly fades away.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby aeden » Fri Nov 08, 2019 6:24 pm

How many people are you planning for/who is in charge?
What is each person’s life situation (do they work, go to school, stay at home)?
Health/disability issues (including meds needed)
Ages
Training levels/deficiencies
Attitude toward survival planning/training
Rendezvous: How/where will everyone assemble
Is everyone’s gear packed and staged somewhere
Who might show up at last minute—what will you do

swot

strengths
weaknesses
opportunity's
threats

3/3/3
survive 3 days - water or else
three weeks - food is already past gone
three month - civilization ended, enclaves ensue interactions

Religion is built for extermination and/or dominance of all who oppose it.

Melchizedek give us a glimpse of God's real work in people that can understand.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby Higgenbotham » Sat Nov 09, 2019 8:50 pm

vincecate wrote:Peter Schiff has said he expects the Fed to print money faster and faster, but who else is really saying that? I think there are many more that realize this but don't say it in such plain terms.

In fact, views from across the ideological spectrum are converging on the notion that a semi-permanent monetization of larger fiscal deficits will be unavoidable — and even desirable — in the next downturn.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/print ... 2019-10-28
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Postby aeden » Sun Nov 10, 2019 1:16 am

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keywords=Exculpatory&t=2&sf=msgonly&ch=-1&start=20

They are simply insane H.
We can give the exact date on what was coming.
Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:31 am
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=36584&hilit=Exculpatory#p36584

They actually believe it is a communication issue to the current affairs.

Who pulls up the ladder when your placed in the crevice? You better read the facts and later maybe you will awake.
The moral nihilist straw man will suffer the exculpatory adjectives for now.
Variant: If it's a good idea, go ahead and do it. It is much easier to apologize than it is to get permission.
As quoted in Built to Learn : The inside story of how Rockwell Collins became a true learning organization (2003)
by Cliff Purington, Chris Butler, and Sarah Fister Gale, p. 171

The root issue is they think the sample changes the profound ignorance on a level to even understand the rate of change
and adjust for actual positive corrective action. Even when presented as fact the political cult mentality will overtake logic.

God's wrath has given man over to darkened minds.

The DNC lead by the nose by the moleks.
Locally, there’s a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes.
In other words, no matter how much people are borrowing, their standard of living is in decline.

The future will call it ACA Obama Depression.

“the Mecca of the economist lies in economic biology rather than in economic dynamics.” In other words, Marshall was arguing that the economy is an evolutionary process in which technology, market institutions, and people’s preferences evolve along with people’s behavior.
Marshall rarely attempted a statement or took a position without expressing countless qualifications, exceptions, and footnotes. He showed himself to be an astute mathematician—he studied math at St. John’s College, Cambridge—but limited his quantitative expressions so that he might appeal to the layman. Marshall was born into a middle-class family in London and raised to enter the clergy. He defied his parents’ wishes and instead became an academic in mathematics and economics.
http://delong.typepad.com/files/keynes-marshall.pdf Basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, John Maynard Keynes.

search.php?keywords=sticky+wages&t=2&sf=msgonly

Our first grievance to sticky wages and why people lost 1/3 wages and 1/2 wages with the Rhodes Scholar Bill Clinton and the effects of Tragedy and Hope with Operation 936 later. The clean up crew was already established since 1983.
http://www.carrollquigley.net/pdf/Tragedy_and_Hope.pdf

The only people who believe, are paid to. The rest have already been labeled idiots.

One might ask the question, "Aren't American socialists in favor of their own country's survival?"
search.php?keywords=abnormal+psychology&t=2&sf=msgonly
To answer this question, we must turn to abnormal psychology.

“This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes,” Gruber said. “Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the ‘stupidity of the American voter’ or whatever, but basically that was really, really critical to getting the thing to pass.”

Behold, your house is left unto you desolate. For I say unto you, Ye shall not see me henceforth, till ye shall say,
Blessed is he that cometh in the name of the Lord” Matthew 23:37-39

Sticky wages was operation 936 and packaged as Nafta for the true believers.
Truly Americans are indeed epic, and useful pagan idiots going forward also.

Ellsberg Paradox represents a class of choice situations in which an uncertainty is weighed against a known probability.

The Office will be castigated as the chilling effect to the progression of social change. Double speak of traitors.

By introducing crucial insight regarding the activity-level effect, Posner fundamentally changed the portrayal of strict liability in case law. More generally, Posner’s opinion provides a primer on applying the functional approach from start to finish in analyzing social (qua legal) problems.

This is what they are doing since they understand one thing. They can control the useful and cheerful but not the thinking Americans.
If you understand why the wall fell 30 years ago and the eighty percent who took over, and how. The useless idiots here think they can
adapt the Pareto effect for the deception of quid quo pro.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nun ... er-contact
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