Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
richard5za
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Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:45 am
My guess is that it will be a CPI release that will highlight the Scylla and Charybdis of runaway inflation vs. depression that will be the Crisis.
Here is the schedule:
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
Interesting. Thank you for the schedule

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 7:52 am
vincecate wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 3:37 pm
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:43 pm
Days? Weeks? Months?
I am guessing by end of January we will see at least 20% drop in S&P.
You may well be right on a 20% drop by end January, Vince, as the market is much, much too high. BUT on my charts I'm not yet seeing a trend change; that has still to happen. Currently I am still 100% in cash waiting, and waiting, and waiting! I seem to have spent a great deal of time waiting in the last few years. I really thought 2018 would be crash year; I am still waiting
Higg, how are you doing? Are you also on the sidelines waiting?
What trend change are you looking for? Happy Thanksgiving.

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Tom Mazanec wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:45 am
My guess is that it will be a CPI release that will highlight the Scylla and Charybdis of runaway inflation vs. depression that will be the Crisis.
Here is the schedule:
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
I like the Odyssey reference. Good stuff. How bad will Scylla be to us?

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Tom Mazanec
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Re: Financial topics

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:40 am
Tom Mazanec wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:45 am
My guess is that it will be a CPI release that will highlight the Scylla and Charybdis of runaway inflation vs. depression that will be the Crisis.
Here is the schedule:
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm
I like the Odyssey reference. Good stuff. How bad will Scylla be to us?
Right now it is worse than under Carter (I was an Astronomy student at CWRU then). It took Volcker raising interest rates to the highest ever (into the teens iirc) and spark the worse recession between the GD and the GR to break that. If we try that again in spades? The Debt to GDP ratio was about one to three back then...now it is pushing four to three.
How bad do you think it will be?
SHARKS (crossed out) MONGEESE (sic) WITH FRICKIN' LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

The S&P is down 0.87% right now. Wonder if this can be the start. https://edition.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets

richard5za
Posts: 533
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Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:12 pm
The S&P is down 0.87% right now. Wonder if this can be the start. https://edition.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets
Global markets are "spooked" this morning on the new Covid variant that has arisen in South Africa. (Where I live) The implications are not yet known as to whether current vaccinations are effective to the new virus or not. However I can quite imagine the Americans stepping up to the plate and pushing the S&P 500 back up, perhaps even to 4900!! They have been doing the "pushing up role" for a very long time. But alternatively you are right Vince and this might be the beginning of the correction.
Let's see how it all unfolds. Until the trend changes I remain in cash

richard5za
Posts: 533
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Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:12 pm
The S&P is down 0.87% right now. Wonder if this can be the start. https://edition.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets
4650 is where I expect the S&P 500 to open today; higher or lower or quick moves in one or other direction could set a direction or trend. Its the change in trend that I look for; choppy markets too easily lose you money

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

After about 1 hour today (short day):

The S&P is down 1.78%
The Russel 2000 is down 3.87%
Bitcoin down 7.5%

Like 1:45 into trading
Oil down 11%
VIX up 50%

Think Monday could be extra exciting.
Last edited by vincecate on Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cool Breeze
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Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:46 am
vincecate wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:12 pm
The S&P is down 0.87% right now. Wonder if this can be the start. https://edition.cnn.com/business/markets/premarkets
Global markets are "spooked" this morning on the new Covid variant that has arisen in South Africa. (Where I live) The implications are not yet known as to whether current vaccinations are effective to the new virus or not. However I can quite imagine the Americans stepping up to the plate and pushing the S&P 500 back up, perhaps even to 4900!! They have been doing the "pushing up role" for a very long time. But alternatively you are right Vince and this might be the beginning of the correction.
Let's see how it all unfolds. Until the trend changes I remain in cash
More fake news. You all think it'll be an excuse to sell off? The jabs don't work, that's why there are variants, if there actually are any.

vincecate
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Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:11 pm
More fake news. You all think it'll be an excuse to sell off? The jabs don't work, that's why there are variants, if there actually are any.
About 30 years ago I had a satellite dish. Sometimes we could see the raw feeds for news programs. I was watching a financial program and the announcer was getting ready for his next segment and the text had some excuse for the market going down and the announcer just changed it to "profit-taking" during the commercial break. So it was clear they are not taking polls of buyers and sellers to try to figure out what is going on, they are just making stuff up. Today might be the South African variant, or maybe it is China, or maybe it is comments from a number of Fed heads that seem more hawkish, or maybe it is that people fear the next CPI report. Nobody really checks but the viewers like to have a reason, so they give them one.

Grantham says that after the peak it is just that people are just a bit less euphoric. Since prices are determined by the marginal buyer and seller, just a bit less euphoric is enough to make prices start to go down. This is how I would explain it. Not any particular thing, just a bit less euphoric. Then as the market drops, this causes euphoria to go down a bit more, which ...

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