Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/01/19 ... ellar-fbi/

Cuellar has increasingly become a figure of derision among progressives in recent years. He will sometimes join Republicans to vote against Democratic priorities,

who knows another hatchet job....

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

While watching the Bubblevisions this morning, the “analysts” all stress the narrative of “earnings” and ignore the geopolitical and economic disruptions which are destroying the real economy on a global scale outside of their glass palaces. Just remember, every one of these networks have a product to sell and that is to convince the masses that the “brilliance” of their guests means you have to buy their crappy equities to keep their whales happy.

One day, perhaps, people will start learning history instead of repeating it. Meanwhile, AMC appears to be heading for single digits as the movie industry is more concerned about producing propaganda than providing entertainment for the world by getting more woke and going more broke.

https://johngaltfla.com/economics/the-apes-are-angry/

https://i0.wp.com/johngaltfla.com/wp-co ... C647&ssl=1
phase shit and canadian border shutdown shock

Touches on the work of JM Hurst that identified a nominal cycle model that was common in the markets that he followed.
This nominal model is the default model that is built into the Hurst Cycle study.

Many may ignore some implecation in it also.

Basically VTLs are drawn for the troughs of a cycle are used to confirm a peak in the cycle of one
degree higher when the price crosses below the VTL. Conversely, VTLs drawn for the peaks of a cycle
may be used to confirm a trough in the cycle of one degree higher when the price crosses above the VTL.

https://hurstcycles.com/4-year-cyclical-high/
And so we have the commonality of 5 + 3 = 8, and 4 + 4 = 8 wave.

The current log breakdowns in pattern shocks appear.

The only confimation was 13-f bugouts and current macd pattern spreads also.

Make Preparations Now! Truckers Protest In Mass, US Cross Border Trucking Mandate Begins Jan 22nd
So far we have only managed to mitigate damage not prevent it.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

richard5za wrote:
Thu Jan 06, 2022 6:45 am
vincecate wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:47 pm
Maybe people are now ready for crash. Fed plans to pivot faster than people expected.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3XRps1qEHI

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fomc-f ... 1641336039

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sizmtHfkOdE
I don't think so! Six months ago on 6 July the S&P 500 was at 4343. The recent period has seen a fall from a record high at around 4800 down 100 index points to 4700. Looks like media hype! The bull trend in theory remains intack. It could easily rally back up and hit 4850 and higher
On the basis of historical seasonality the 11th trading day of January has marked a moderate down trend. That would be 17th Jan. Lets see.
Of course it may be the beginning of a crash but moderate downs usually preceeed a crash; probably the crash won't start until 4400 to 4100 is reached. Lets see; perhaps we get something totally spectactular?
Higg, are you in or out of the market at present? I recently went long but took profits and sold out, and currently in cash.

I've been in and out of the market taking it day by day and trading short term. Today is the first day I've been out in awhile. Watching and waiting today.

These are my last ~500 trades. This analyzer only accepts a maximum of 500 trades.

Image

My account is still down a little from the year end 2020 close on the S&P at 3756, but it doesn't seem that the market will be able to ruin me.

This is an interesting market in a lot of ways.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

richard5za wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:22 am
John, I had a look at how inflation forecasting is done in Europe. With massive computerised forecasting models inclusive of all variables, and possible variations, its still an inexact science. If inflation is 2% now the forecast for 12 months out might be 2.3% but with high/low possibilities of minus 1% to plus 4.5%. Its a bit like the weather where tomorrow is generally reasonably accurate but two weeks time is pandora's box!
So the question you ask is can we take a single series with a lot of data (you have monthly for over 100 years) and project it.
The only way to answer this is try empirical analysis. Are there cycles in the data, short term, long term, etc, etc; how to best understand the serries, etc. Then take the first 80 years and project it and see if you are getting sense against historical actuals.
Now who is the best person to do this? Higg, of course. Higg is our maths boffin.
Higg, where are you? And how are you? Trust all well.

I think this falls into the same category as forecasting the stock market. The more certain the outcome, the less certain the time frame in which it will occur. The only certainties with inflation and the stock market are that the value of any currency and the value of the stock market will go to zero but the time frame has maximum uncertainty. The greatest certainties occur on a micro scale but observations on a micro scale don't allow for forecasting anything on a macro scale. On a micro scale, one can forecast that if a chain of stores is increasing prices on a certain brand of product, other chains and other brands will likely follow, but that doesn't help much to forecast inflation. Likewise with stocks. With today's huge rally, certain stocks are likely to be marked up first and it can be guessed with high certainty as to which stocks will follow but that doesn't help much to forecast where the general market will go.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »


This site links to several interesting videos that show the gory detail of the collapse into a new dark age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi1Kf-1qd6Y
Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Avenue, What happened today, Aug, 2021
"hyunjin's byeol 4 months ago As someone who lives in a place that is considered to be a third-world country, I have never in my life seen something like this here."

https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/statu ... 2271760384
"John Schreiber @johnschreiber Keep hearing of train burglaries in LA on the scanner so went to #LincolnHeights to see it all. And… there’s looted packages as far as the eye can see. Amazon packages, @UPS boxes, unused Covid tests, fishing lures, epi pens. Cargo containers left busted open on trains."
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:20 pm

This site links to several interesting videos that show the gory detail of the collapse into a new dark age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi1Kf-1qd6Y
Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Avenue, What happened today, Aug, 2021
"hyunjin's byeol 4 months ago As someone who lives in a place that is considered to be a third-world country, I have never in my life seen something like this here."

https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/statu ... 2271760384
"John Schreiber @johnschreiber Keep hearing of train burglaries in LA on the scanner so went to #LincolnHeights to see it all. And… there’s looted packages as far as the eye can see. Amazon packages, @UPS boxes, unused Covid tests, fishing lures, epi pens. Cargo containers left busted open on trains."
You mean a new dark age in dark Democrat urban ghettos, right?

It's best to be quite clear and specific. Some people around here might get scared.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:30 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:20 pm

This site links to several interesting videos that show the gory detail of the collapse into a new dark age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi1Kf-1qd6Y
Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Avenue, What happened today, Aug, 2021
"hyunjin's byeol 4 months ago As someone who lives in a place that is considered to be a third-world country, I have never in my life seen something like this here."

https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/statu ... 2271760384
"John Schreiber @johnschreiber Keep hearing of train burglaries in LA on the scanner so went to #LincolnHeights to see it all. And… there’s looted packages as far as the eye can see. Amazon packages, @UPS boxes, unused Covid tests, fishing lures, epi pens. Cargo containers left busted open on trains."
You mean a new dark age in dark Democrat urban ghettos, right?

It's best to be quite clear and specific. Some people around here might get scared.

No, I don't mean that. The new dark age is sweeping across all America and the world. However, it's more visibly accessible and apparent in the urban locations documented. A few years ago, it was noted that life expectancy first began falling in rural counties in the red states.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

We have listed the zones ongoing as the left and right coast and the Bantu file collapses.
It is not an issue your behind the curve as BITI and Taproot drain the pool. As we also told you we
have no interest in it. If it indicates as short with AI hunter seeker trackers then it will be.
We also warned you upfront bear raids are 60 milliseconds also. Go ahead the waters fine and knee deep dive in.
The warning was and is the cone of competentcy and the edges of it seen in the cannot fix pile on our actual desks.
The next hit will be nationwide since the forbearance payments are now coming due.
The point is simple as did they put the extension on the back of loans.
I did not see the Border Driver issues but it was on the radar as we indicated and doubt many will either but in this next window
20 days in we are prepared from our 100 day facts already posted. People think food comes the supermarket. Less than 20 percent of ours does
and we also said we will trade above the margin in fair trade. You think that includes free trade you are clinical NPD.

H observes his area as well as we do ours in the wasting since the end of the gold standard and why.
His concerns are our concerns and He is Hell of alot smarter then both of us.

As we in our view only we will focus pivots from 75 to 95 wti for now. The rest of the usual suspects are already known here.

Back to 47xx and mock us to oblvion bout 49xx. To tired to care really going forward for now.
We can always go as related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority that comes from people's
inability to recognize their lack of ability.

thread: bantu, wasting, 936, cci, 2a-7, velvit rope

Leftists are not liberal and they took over the Democratas like Brown Shirts in as a mental disease.
At least a few got what they deserved in the plain of Shinar being trained by Terrorists.
Doctor Warner was and is correct about of the scale and scope of the American naivete also.

vincecate
Posts: 2371
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

Hey Higgy! Nice to see you.


German PPI for December was 24.2%
This is the highest increase since they started recording PPI.


https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/0 ... 61241.html

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:48 pm
Cool Breeze wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:30 pm
Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:20 pm



This site links to several interesting videos that show the gory detail of the collapse into a new dark age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi1Kf-1qd6Y
Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Avenue, What happened today, Aug, 2021
"hyunjin's byeol 4 months ago As someone who lives in a place that is considered to be a third-world country, I have never in my life seen something like this here."

https://twitter.com/johnschreiber/statu ... 2271760384
"John Schreiber @johnschreiber Keep hearing of train burglaries in LA on the scanner so went to #LincolnHeights to see it all. And… there’s looted packages as far as the eye can see. Amazon packages, @UPS boxes, unused Covid tests, fishing lures, epi pens. Cargo containers left busted open on trains."
You mean a new dark age in dark Democrat urban ghettos, right?

It's best to be quite clear and specific. Some people around here might get scared.

No, I don't mean that. The new dark age is sweeping across all America and the world. However, it's more visibly accessible and apparent in the urban locations documented. A few years ago, it was noted that life expectancy first began falling in rural counties in the red states.
On what basis, civil war?

Or international war and grid shutdown?

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