Financial topics

[aedens]

Fresh data from Vanguard, one of the nation’s largest 401(k) managers, show a 12 percent increase in the number of workers who took loans against their
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html retirement accounts or withdrew money outright since 2008.

Vanguard came in " a nice guy" and gave a risk reward view. I lasted ten minutes in the meeting and excused myself. The others asked later if a mason jar
was a solution. You know at times you cannot even take the time to explain risk to some. I reminded them eighty percent of you
lost 40 perecent in aggregate and you never seen it coming. Already the tone has changed on why they consider no change in attitude a viable
plan going forward. Simply amazing how some are entrenched as the generational dynamics are with boomers and the vapid nilism of "relativism"
as John conveyed as intractable dynamics. Not all, but it is a real aspect to consider also as we go forward.
http://thebubblefilm.com/

Old news for review on lion tigers and bears. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Qc2iK-p4Hk
To be clear many think the left and right have lost there mind anyway. As we noted many times being a moderate
as Thucydides conveyed accurately has lost a inference to mind our own property rights and the value added respect of contract
and not the keynasian veil of contract. The GOP does not reflect Republicans as the left has abandoned the Republic and that nasty
old letter they avoid.

AQIM is flush with resources. These are not the droids you're looking for. Seldon has recorded holographic messages for these turning points. He appears and informs the librarians that they really are not librarians at all. Actually, they represent the last of scientifically creative minds left in the galaxy. The reason for the fall of the Empire was ignorance of science and a resultant decline of the infrastructure.
I just may reread it when I get time... It is easy to maintain that human actions are too complex to be predictable. But skeptics are proven wrong each time a waiter brings them ketchup with their fries, without having been asked to.
http://freightflows.blogspot.no/p/blog-page_5996.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/ ... ompanyNews

[OLD1953]

There are certainly worse places to put money than Vanguard. Risk is simply hard to quantify now, that coupled with uncertainty makes many people very risk averse.

The major risk now simply lies in the fact that nobody inside the US is in control of the real risks to the US economy, because all the major risks now are external or responses to external forces. The US was in recovery from the market crash when European banks brought down the world in the early 30's, and the default of Italy or Spain could easily bring about a repeat of that scenario. We might actually segue directly into WWIII without the European collapse, and the ramifications of that will depend entirely on how long the war lasts, how it is fought (conventional, ABC or something in between) and who and how the players actually line up - and when. Much of what the FED is doing is in response to external forces, the huge EURO loans/bailouts do pressure the FED and the US in many ways, most obviously by altering the ratio of value between the EURO and the dollar. This leads to huge but hard to measure risks.

[Reality Check]

The major risk now simply lies in the fact that nobody inside the US is in control of the real risks to the US economy, because all the major risks now are external or responses to external forces.

Are you living in Wonderland ?

The United States is in a hole, dug by the United States, and the solution proposed by Obama is to accelerate the rate at which the U.S. is expanding the size of that hole.

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve System states that the problem is the existence of a debt limit on how much the U.S. government can borrow. A debt limit imposed by the the people of the United States through their elected representatives and by the the U.S. constitution. Just get rid of the U.S. constitution and our current form of government and all our problems will be solved ?

Why did the Chairman not say the problem with the banks holding bad credit card debt as assets was that they had credit limits on how much money their credit card customers can borrow? If the banks would just allow their customers unlimited borrowing so they could borrow the money to make their monthly credit card payments on the same credit card, then the problem would be solved and no more bad debts. If the solution is good for the United States government it should be equally good for the Credit Card Customers in default.

Obama has issued dictatorial decrees relating to Amnesty for illegal aliens and he is about to do the same related to Gun Control.

If such dictatorial decrees where such a good idea, why did he not use them to hold the bankers accountable or put everybody back to work ?

The suggestion that "all the major risks now are external or responses to external forces" outside the U.S. Government, or outside the United States, is pure fantasy.

[Reality Check]

External threats to the United States will be the next by-product of the current internal economic crisis of the United States, but only after the current internal economic crisis in the United States completes the unilateral disarmament of the United States to a level that external malevolent forces feel safe to attack the United States.

Some on this site believe that attack will occur prematurely and that will reverse the current generational trend of self destruction in the United States.

Such a mis-calculation is possible. But it is just as likely, IMHO, that these same folks underestimate the burning desire by Obama to dis-arm the United States and avoid conflict at any price.

The process of unilaterally disarming the Unite States may continue for eight years before external threats exceed internal threats.

[aedens]

RC I would look for that window around 2015 mid to late year. We looked at Mr. Obama a long time ago as Hadrian and a quick shift to another mindset since all socialist are autocratic dictates. Mr. Obama is no Chamberlain and I think he will evolve "drift" hopefully to a Marcus Aurelius Antoninus. If he wields the Constitution and underfund progressive idiots good for him, I could care less with these dingbats these days. I would love to see Fred Upton smack them with facts and dig in. We also noted he will move to the center to manage risk. His best defense is to take care of business by preparation of the task force movements. In, and annihilate and back to status. NATO is incompetent on these mission. Maybe they will adapt quickly. I think we are closer on many targets as the latency timers we stick our necks out on here. We have one bias here.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1 ... january-22

I will express my bias on this topic since this is why I selected aeden as login.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Eden
Eisenhower took NATO to task by currency measures. Fascinating period.

http://www.hoover.org/multimedia/uncomm ... edge/26972
This goes back some years and if I remember correctly you dented a west German car it cost the taxpayers
10,000 dollars. I was for the hell with all these idiots and pull out. I do not think the french ever got over
the Suez crisis and Nixon told them to blast off august 15 1971

[aedens]

Risk is simply hard to quantify now.
I was just thinking how tight the wire is on that topic. Fundamentals appear broken. I have some with Vanguard and
the risk discussion was a glassed eyed script and yes he was pretty good guy anyway.
Goes back to the view H has on it which I cannot pry out of my mind since it rings painfully true..
Anyway... We are in CAD assets and some DXY assets until the first view as conveyed and cleared.
We can see the pushing on the string by Benny and the Inkjets is only buffered by the wasted capital
in billions per month to support a political corpse. Bad business not clearing out the dead assets but used for off sheet skullduggery.
Yea I know they will say, take it up with the CRA cargo cult on the Hill.

http://www.cnde.iastate.edu/ultrasonics ... k-margetan

I was looking over the last years on the chart to events. First blush was the Hill being blantantly wrong on other soil.
I dislike bad guys just as the next guy.
Sad affairs: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-1 ... li-incursi
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... Z68KeAfUEM

[Higgenbotham]

The way I see the dark age process, it is initiated by the internal actions of the hegemon (the US in this case) but the symptoms first show up mostly in the periphery. The Middle East (Syria), Africa (Mali), and the edges of Europe (Greece), Russia (Siberia) and the US (Detroit) have been slowly breaking down toward chaos. This will spread inward toward the capital cities of the hegemon (Washington DC and New York in this case) as the hegemon continues to suck resources out of the periphery at a more frenzied pace. We have moved into the frenzied pace stage as many parts of the world has been sucked dry and the US has abdicated them and moved on to areas that are closer to the core, including China and its own citizens. This is where things begin to get dangerous. Once the capital cities of the hegemon break down, then the dark age will have begun. While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently. Once they collapse, the periphery will be relieved of pressure and things should improve somewhat for a limited period of time.

[aedens]

I think that is a fair assesment. Water, wheat, then weather since these affairs as we call them started quicker than
I considered. It hinges on Egypt also and I will consider the position noted still valid so far on what we seen to date.
https://plus.google.com/+InterestingEng ... Hp4fDdN2jc
When they figure this out it is already to late. The people who say when they get to this point they do the right thing at x
is lacking merit. We have all worked on some rather complicated projects in our career and it never ceases
to amaze me how limited people can be. This is the cost basis managed of scarce resources. The future will rely on energy margins
nodes sooner than later. They have no choice over there and they damn well know it anyway here. These kill switches are wasted time we
noted for some years here and there already. Time these liberals wake up to reality. We keep enough needs to care for ourselfs
in town for over two weeks if needed because why would you not? We lost power last winter for 4 days and never really felt any issues.
Picked up on some candles and a few extra containers for this and that for the next time if it happens. If it gets stupid enough to go to
plan b on the farm, well most are retired military and officers so we have a decent chance I guess. A few have medical and we got the other
who can do whatever needs to be done.
http://readynutrition.com/resources/52- ... _19072011/
Where is the rally point in there life to family we hope never to need? Like we seen lately if you depend on Uncle Sam you are one dead FEMA SOB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRqLVjOuSWQ

[Higgenbotham]

I think that is a fair assesment. Water, wheat, then weather since these affairs as we call them started quicker than I considered. It hinges on Egypt also and I will consider the position noted still valid so far on what we seen to date.

We're seeing breakdown in more places than I can count now. Belarus, on the west edge of the former Soviet Union, is breaking down after some years of relief. Within the past month:

The nearly bankrupted former Soviet republic of Belarus is to receive a billion-dollar credit from China, the country's authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko says.

The funds are to be made available at favourable terms with no conditions, Lukashenko was cited by state news agency Belta as saying.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/-/worl ... ar-credit/

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.cfrn.net/emini-news-blog/201 ... cture.html

If you have 75 minutes, the good part starts at the 1 hour mark. He shows the long term cycle work that says the peak should be about now.

a, this is from a source tonight: "Wall cycle #8 has rallied nicely in price, time and sentiment into the expected topping window. The ideal target high off the December 18 high is January 22." I'm still holding 100% short. This is more evidence of a strong consensus that "we are almost there, but not quite yet" and we know consensus is never right in markets, so it either has passed or is coming later.