Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

John and Higg,
You can argue whether Trump has done a good job or not...

If you establish the baseline for comparison as Clinton, Bush II, or Obama, there is no comparison (that doesn't happen to be my bar for how a president should be evaluated - it's extremely low). Trump has done a great job because he at least confronted some longstanding and extremely critical issues like trade that have been badly mishandled by all his immediate predecessors. My only point in starting this discussion was that Trump and/or his lackeys basically dismissed a briefing on pandemics during the handover from Obama, which is very characteristic of Trump's dismissive behavior. That he did in fact dismiss that briefing is quite believable and consistent with the rest of his behavior.

[aeden]

2009 Swine flu. An average 33 Americans dead every day for an entire year.
Ask Bunker Biden MIA what they did to protect ant one then?

This is not a recession. It is an ice age. They fucked it up at every 40 day reality.

[richard5za]

John, Aeden, Higg, Vince,
I have been very surprised at the crash / correction of Wall Street.
The stock market / Dow initial chart was very similar to 1929. You would need to be a scholar of stock market history to spot the difference if all figures were removed!
The waterfall crash has exceeded 1929 by quite a long way. I keep expecting a platform for a bounce but nothing happens. Last Thursday I thought OK lets see a bounce, but nothing! Maybe due to technology?
Too violent for me. I stopped trading early in March. My primary responsibility being to preserve my capital
As at Friday close Dow futures are down about an additional 4% plus the Friday decline!
Has anyone a view ????????

[aeden]

Cash is King.
Us Amish are the worst!
We will loot liquor stores and burn WalMarts to the ground as the National Guard sits on their ass not moving
FDA medical equipment.

murder

At this very moment, stockpiles of masks, hand sanitizer, and other supplies are sitting in warehouses waiting for FDA inspectors to get around to them. Where other nations are expediting these deliveries, trusting proven suppliers in their deliveries, the FDA has resorted to its favorite fetish: bureaucratic lethargy.

The problem here is not simply that the FDA is insisting that its box-checking comes before exigent needs of public health, but also that the agency doesn't have enough inspectors to get the job done quickly.

I spoke to one significant medical supplier who talked to me on the condition of anonymity, for fear of FDA retaliation. In one location on the Pacific coast, this supplier has had more than 20 pallets of coronavirus-specific medical supplies waiting in a warehouse for five days. Yes, five days.

At another depot in the south-central United States, this same supplier has had 500,000 level-three or level-four masks sitting in a warehouse for two days now. They expect the FDA delays to continue indefinitely.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... s-response

[Higgenbotham]

John, Aeden, Higg, Vince,
I have been very surprised at the crash / correction of Wall Street.
The stock market / Dow initial chart was very similar to 1929. You would need to be a scholar of stock market history to spot the difference if all figures were removed!
The waterfall crash has exceeded 1929 by quite a long way. I keep expecting a platform for a bounce but nothing happens. Last Thursday I thought OK lets see a bounce, but nothing! Maybe due to technology?
Too violent for me. I stopped trading early in March. My primary responsibility being to preserve my capital
As at Friday close Dow futures are down about an additional 4% plus the Friday decline!
Has anyone a view ????????

Yes, I have one, but it's not like last weekend where I agreed with Vince that the market should very likely go down on Monday.

We can go over to the market historians and see statistics like the following:
"FYI, the $VIX had never fallen on a day the $SPX dropped over 3%...Today, the $SPX fell -4.34% while the $VIX dropped -8.28%."
"The S&P 500 has lost more than 4% on 48 days since 1962. On the "best" of those days, only 26% of NYSE securities advanced on the day. Today, more than 47% of them rose."
This would indicate deep, deep oversold and that a huge snap back rally is likely based on history.

But, on the other hand, I agree with you that the waterfall crash has exceeded 1929 by a long way. Why can't deeply oversold become even more deeply oversold? I think it can for sure, as for sure on the way up valuations exceeded all that have ever been recorded by many measures.

Having said the above, I'll digress for a bit from the more immediate and practical and say that it's my bias that if the market does crash next week despite all the deep oversold and history to the contrary, that is more evidence that the world is entering into a new dark age.

Back to the practical and the immediate issue at hand. I see 4 possibilities for next week:

The market gaps higher on Sunday night and continues up.
The market follows through to the downside in the first hour Sunday night, then rallies the rest of the day.
The market follows through to the downside the first hour Sunday night, then makes a good rally attempt that fails later in the session.
The market continues lower and crashes.

I have no position in any market now. On Friday, I sold all of my silver position taken on Thursday.

I will be trying options 2 and 3 Sunday night unless something happens between now and then to change my mind. If the market morphs into option 4, I will have an order ready to sell at the market.

[aeden]

Option three or four on H view.
I am watch EXIV as minor sentiment indicator and dxy
VDIGX on dislocation only in my view only.
Cash.

[Higgenbotham]

To me, national politics are a dead issue.

The last election that made a big difference was 1992 (Clinton, Bush I, Perot). Perot needed to win that election in order to prevent the mess we find ourselves in now.

By the time Trump got elected, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama (with lots of help from the Federal Reserve - especially from 2008 to 2010), irreversibly tipped the world into a new dark age. Of course, they had lots of help from every other country too. The path into the depths of the dark age can be modified somewhat, but we're still going there no matter what the details are from here on out. Trump is the right man to take us into the dark age versus the options that are available.

[aeden]

I agree given the repressionary policy to subsidize stone cold communist as they bluntly did.
Operation IRS 936 was a warm up and the cover up slush funds from the CCI.
Trump was allowed to be the bag holder as we got gutted out and looted.

How many weeks have you been waiting for protective gear?

This answer will tell us they do not give a fuck about us or our Girls on the line
and systems we paid for decades.

[Higgenbotham]

Trump was allowed to be the bag holder as we got gutted out and looted.

Yes, and that was not yet possible to undertake under a potential Perot presidency.

They tried to make Perot appear crazy as a loon, but he still got 19% of the vote. There was a significant fraction of the population at the time that was not brain dead.

[aeden]

They seen how fast they can spread disease throughout the Western World via commercial flights out of China.
And in lockstep with their ownership of Western Media Morons pour gas on the fire.
Wake up. China won't need Nukes when in the future they can send fatal bugs with "Obedient to the Lie" citizens onto airplanes,
while Western Media provided cover. The paper written was correct on the delivery means.

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 850#p50792

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EupmMLBmIII

"Everything we do will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate" Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:50 am