Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

ERCOT: Texas power system was less than 5 minutes from collapse during winter storm

By Christopher Neely | 7:32 PM Feb 24, 2021 CST | Updated 7:32 PM Feb 24, 2021 CST

At about 1:51 a.m. Feb. 15, as the historic winter storm knocked out power plants across Texas and increasingly stymied the ability to produce and provide power, the state’s electricity system frequency fell below 59.4 hertz—a threshold that signals dire emergency.

The state’s electricity system can only spend nine minutes below 59.4 hertz before a statewide blackout is imminent—something that can take weeks or longer to fix, according to Bill Magness, the CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s power system operator.

Magness said ERCOT had already shed 2,000 megawatts of demand from the state’s power system, hoping the forced alleviation of electricity demand would take stress off the system and buy time for more electricity to become available.

Immediately after the system’s frequency fell below 59.4 hertz, ERCOT ordered another 3,000 megawatts of demand be shed from the system. The decision buoyed the system for only seconds before it dipped down again to 59.302 hertz. At 1:55 a.m., with about four minutes and 37 seconds left before a statewide blackout was imminent, ERCOT ordered another 3,500 megawatts of demand be shed from the system.

By 1:57 a.m., the system was back up around 59.7 hertz—still an emergency but further away from devastating collapse. At 2 a.m. ERCOT ordered a final 2,000 megawatts of load shed. The system bounced up to 60.1 hertz.
https://communityimpact.com/austin/cent ... ter-storm/
The presentation Magness provided at the board meeting is the most detailed accounting so far of the grid's failure to provide power through this February's polar vortex event, putting the state's electric grid, its regulators and policymakers under tremendous pressure and leading to the resignation of ERCOT's four independent board members, effective after the meeting.

In the presentation, Magness noted that the types of generation that went out of service was widely distributed, as to type. At peak of outages on Feb. 15-16, the capacity out were as follows:

Natural gas: about 27 GW, or about 52% of capacity
Wind: about 18 GW, or about 57% of capacity
Coal: about 6 GW, or about 44% of capacity
Solar: about 750 MW, or about 12% of capacity
Nuclear: about 700 MW, or about 13% of capacity

The contrast with February 2011's rolling outage event was stark, as the earlier event only had outages for 7.5 hours and were loads to be shed small enough that distribution utilities could actually cycle customers online and off, whereas the 2021 event had outages for 70.5 hours and required such a large total load to be shed, that some customers had to remain offline for days, so that power could be continued for essential services, Magness said.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... -load-shed

What I posted a few days ago was wrong. The reason they didn't roll the outages wasn't because the grid was too unstable to roll them. I believe that Magness is telling the truth, but I couldn't imagine that so much capacity was lost that there was only enough capacity left for essential services.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 24-Feb-2021 World View: Texas power failure
Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:43 pm
> https://communityimpact.com/austin/cent ... ter-storm/
> In the presentation, Magness noted that the types of generation that
> went out of service was widely distributed, as to type. At peak of
> outages on Feb. 15-16, the capacity out were as follows:

> Natural gas: about 27 GW, or about 52% of capacity
> Wind: about 18 GW, or about 57% of capacity
> Coal: about 6 GW, or about 44% of capacity
> Solar: about 750 MW, or about 12% of capacity
> Nuclear: about 700 MW, or about 13% of capacity
> https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/mark ... -load-shed

> What I posted a few days ago was wrong. The reason they didn't
> roll the outages wasn't because the grid was too unstable to roll
> them. I believe that Magness is telling the truth, but I couldn't
> imagine that so much capacity was lost that there was only enough
> capacity left for essential services.
So this really was an across-the-board failure of the entire energy
sector.

As bad as the cold wave was, I assume that if temperatures had been
just a few degrees colder, the level of disaster would have been far
worse.

I assume that Texas is going to do something about lessons learned.
Never waste a crisis.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Imbedded depreciation is willingly over looked.
OPEX experts won that battle in Texas over CapEx.
Being from a brutal climate they got no choice but deal with it.
From patterns ignored who say these weather patterns are going away
from the dust cloud we just went into as a system.
As we noted we will check if it goes away this years as in snow cover in a few
inhabited zones under surveillance.
No way these people understand we could be looking at decades of this
issue. We got a saying but will refrain as the pansy's will cray baby all the way to extinction.

Anyways here is some budget issues on the table.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/mo ... egy-793538
I think we understand issues here rather well and locally we squeaked by on not having to bury frozen dead.
The budget was adequate for now. This open free for all border problem is simply offensively retarded and even they know
it to score points for retarded voters.

Among those who died at the Alamo was folk hero Davy Crockett, who is said to have insisted,
“I have always supported measures and principles and not men.”

Crockett listen to Farmers about community facts over gun powder obeisance.

Not Yours To Give
Davy Crockett on The Role Of Government
from: The Life of Colonel David Crockett
compiled by: Edward S. Elis (1884)
Last edited by aeden on Thu Feb 25, 2021 8:52 am, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Bot smashing results from yesterday. I got out of the short mentioned yesterday and am no longer short.

This morning I'm up early trading one of the SPACs that got hammered by the bots yesterday. It's been wild ride already with moves of greater than 10% in the pre-market.

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

I will carry unleveraged shorts up to three percent and ignore puts for now.
I understand why you did H. So in plain fact book four is open since 50 day was breeched
on dxy is why as we noted and dated in the early Feb sweeps. No date needed for us here.
We may decide on long date puts but for us it is not warranted as it is for agile basis maps
for liquidity moves if/then moves into April it will be apparent. This includes undue skepticism
and actual risk assessment maps warranted. We listed eco crypto system developments and no we do not
hold it over night either so it keeps them throttled to net working capital facts in our view alone.
Special purpose acquisition company are toxic as I seen real time when legacy breakouts into telco
constructed narratives about liquidity issues as we finished fiber rings. We just finished the cisco ports
and allowed a backup T1 in for redundancy service needs. You could see the reps pissing themselves
over the coveted user base. I tossed a number internally since the upstream conversation did not go well
and as noted just went private for obvious reasons other than simm security issues already known.
Overall it was the right reason and right time for our needs. The breakout of techs for pop tcip was simple
and few remember. Do no evil we are watching.

thread: l8ter
Last edited by aeden on Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Researchers find worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City

By Maggie Fox, CNN

Updated 6:21 AM ET, Thu February 25, 2021

(CNN)Two separate teams of researchers said this week they have found a worrying new coronavirus variant in New York City and elsewhere in the Northeast that carries mutations that help it evade the body's natural immune response -- as well as the effects of monoclonal antibody treatments.

Genomics researchers have named the variant B.1.526. It appears in people affected in diverse neighborhoods of New York City, they said, and is "scattered in the Northeast."

One of the mutations in this variant is the same concerning change found in the variant first seen in South Africa and known as B.1.351. It appears to evade, somewhat, the body's response to vaccines, as well. And it's becoming more common.

"We observed a steady increase in the detection rate from late December to mid-February, with an alarming rise to 12.7% in the past two weeks," one team, at Columbia University Medical Center, write in a report that has yet to be published, although it is scheduled to appear in pre-print version this week.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/25/health/v ... index.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

We considered that zone to crater harder given its bent of mind but who knows.
The narratives over run reality anywise.
New York is cursed on levels they do not even pretend to care about.
Anyways.
According to J.P. Morgan, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds have grown by 300% since 2015 and are
expected to grow to more than $3.0 trillion by the end of 2020.
J.P. Morgan forecasts that ESG funds will outnumber conventional funds by 2025.


https://amplifyetfs.com/blok
component players
no clue on its transitory stability phase
we hold one forensic software position open for now

sold xom since they sold a billion in assets
it happens since esg will get some traction
we hold kyn on and off

scrapes for data parse
ETFs: MIE, CEN, FEN, AMJ, MLPA, JMF, MLPX, NTG, FPL, KMF, EMO, FMO

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

For those unfamiliar with convexity hedging/flows and why it is a potentially disastrous feedback loop where selling begets more selling, think stock gamma only to the downside. Here is a quick primer from Bloomberg: tyler

There comes a point in any big selloff in Treasury bonds when the move becomes so pronounced that it starts to feed on itself. Increases in yields force a crucial group of investors to sell Treasuries, which in turn leads to further increases in yields. Two months into this rout, that moment appears to have arrived, and it’s beginning to send shudders throughout all corners of U.S. financial markets.

vincecate
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Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

aeden wrote:
Thu Feb 25, 2021 11:52 am
For those unfamiliar with convexity hedging/flows and why it is a potentially disastrous feedback loop where selling begets more selling, think stock gamma only to the downside. Here is a quick primer from Bloomberg: tyler

There comes a point in any big selloff in Treasury bonds when the move becomes so pronounced that it starts to feed on itself. Increases in yields force a crucial group of investors to sell Treasuries, which in turn leads to further increases in yields. Two months into this rout, that moment appears to have arrived, and it’s beginning to send shudders throughout all corners of U.S. financial markets.
The way hyperinflation starts is that the government is spending much more than they get in taxes, so they have to keep selling bonds no matter what. As investors start realizing they are losing money on bonds because inflation is going up, they sell bonds. The government (guys with police, laws, military) want the central bank to buy bonds so the government can keep spending money (and they always get their way in such a crisis). But the faster the central bank buys bonds with newly printed money, the more the bond holders get worried and sell bonds. But the faster the investors sell bonds, the faster the central bank must print new money. This is a death spiral. It will kill the dollar and the world economy. Once it starts the dollar is doomed.

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