Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Looks like a double bottom has formed on gold and is now rising, albeit early days? Perhaps the technical guys (Phong and Higg) could have a look and see if this is actually a double bottom? Roughly a month apart and coinciding with the option expiry
If gold is forming a double bottom and this results in a trend change, what else is going to change? Dollar index?

Gold and silver are a very tough call and have been for awhile. I haven't done anything with them in a long time and don't see an immediate scenario where I would.

[vincecate]

Gold and silver are a very tough call and have been for awhile. I haven't done anything with them in a long time and don't see an immediate scenario where I would.

In the short term I don't know what it will do but I am happy buying some Jan 2025 calls on GLD well out of the money.
If the high inflation continues, as I expect, I think gold will do well over the next 2 years.

After a crash I think the odds of more more money printing goes up (maybe the gov will replace Powell to do this, maybe he caves
to political pressure). If the stock market crashes, and I do well on my S&P puts, I expect to buy many more 2025 GLD calls.

[Cool Breeze]

Gold and silver are a very tough call and have been for awhile. I haven't done anything with them in a long time and don't see an immediate scenario where I would.

In the short term I don't know what it will do but I am happy buying some Jan 2025 calls on GLD well out of the money.
If the high inflation continues, as I expect, I think gold will do well over the next 2 years.

After a crash I think the odds of more more money printing goes up (maybe the gov will replace Powell to do this, maybe he caves
to political pressure). If the stock market crashes, and I do well on my S&P puts, I expect to buy many more 2025 GLD calls.

How do you think gold miners will do over the course of the next 3 years?

[Cool Breeze]

Looks like a double bottom has formed on gold and is now rising, albeit early days? Perhaps the technical guys (Phong and Higg) could have a look and see if this is actually a double bottom? Roughly a month apart and coinciding with the option expiry
If gold is forming a double bottom and this results in a trend change, what else is going to change? Dollar index?

Everything depends on the dollar at the moment. It would need to break below its 50 dma and sustain under it for a bit before Gold will rally. Gold has not decoupled from the dollar index sufficiently enough for it to be worth it for many people except for the die hard gold bugs. That will change once people realize that the central bank currency exchange fiasco has just started and there is no clear solution to the whole thing. When the general public starts to realize that it's not a matter of the dow jones at 15000 or 60000 and that it's all just a currency shell game, then Gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will become a separate store of value once again.

Yes, and BTC will take a share of that new era realization, and got to ATHs again as well.

[vincecate]

How do you think gold miners will do over the course of the next 3 years?

I think P/E ratios on all equities are too high and gold miners will go down as stocks crash to more reasonable P/E ratios.
After the crash I think gold miners will do better than other stocks.

[jcsok]

A 2 hour seminar on world cycles, where we are in the decline of the USA, the coming war with China, how to deal w/ Putin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyw5ykD15lc&t=1407s

I skipped first 15 min,

[Higgenbotham]

Today is the low of a panic cycle. The question therefore is how to take advantage of that - what to trade. My thought Friday and this morning was to look for a segment of the market that appeared to be in a temporary state of irrational panic. What I mean by that is usually in these cases there are good long term reasons for something to have gone down but there is an exaggerated flush at the low. Snap was one stock I considered and I traded that one on Friday. The report wasn't really that bad and I read an interview I think with a CFRA analyst where he said he was surprised at how much the stock was down on the report. One possible candidate for today is long term bonds. I picked Alibaba stock and am already out with the stock up about 7% off the low. I don't want to hold the stock because it's a Chinese company and who knows what will happen longer term. And, for that reason, I don't buy much. But I thought the reaction to the news was very extreme.

Now I see Snap is up another 9% today. I got out on Friday and hadn't even looked at it today until I finished writing the above paragraph. I got out when it was up 3-4% from Friday's low.

[vincecate]

We may know if there is a crisis on Oct 28th.



https://www.phillymag.com/news/2022/10/ ... s-chances/

[Higgenbotham]

I'm short from average 3746 with about 1/4 the position I put on at 4100 awhile back.

As posted last month, I've been very cautious because the bears have had their way for awhile and the market does normally taketh away after having giveth. So today I didn't add but I think 3890 might be a place to try if it gets there. One thing that bothers me about adding too soon (like maybe today) is I was on youtube and glanced over at the suggestions to the right and saw both Robert Prechter and Hugh Hendry have popped up and done interviews, one on October 22 and one on October 24. Those are not the jaw flappers you normally want to see at the top of a bear market rally. As we know, anything can happen and, sure, it's possible they can pop up and down she goes but I can not recall seeing such a thing.

Regardless, I will add some tomorrow if it can get to 3890 and see what happens, but it won't be a lot.

Below is my equity for the past month showing the hit to my account this week from being short. The real damage starts if I add and then it goes over 4,000.

[Cool Breeze]

A 2 hour seminar on world cycles, where we are in the decline of the USA, the coming war with China, how to deal w/ Putin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jyw5ykD15lc&t=1407s

I skipped first 15 min,

Thank you greatly, that is great stuff. Notice that he says at 24 min (very subtly) that egalitarianism is nonsense and the races/nations/people of the earth are not equal.