Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

If it makes a huge whipsaw up after the CPI report I'll probably get out, but the sentiment seems kind of extreme now.

I'm out. I think this is just a typical reaction higher after an extreme, not a V bottom.

Bitcoin holding steady during a big panic in the Nasdaq is what to look for to get a more sustainable move higher, in my opinion.

[Higgenbotham]

After some struggle, I've been able to move my account value higher over the past couple weeks as the market finally stopped moving up (I wasn't short today). I have no positions now. My next step will be to re-establish shorts over the next few days if the market continues moving up.

The big spike up in account value in late October was due to a position being marked to the previous close that was bought lower in after hours. That wasn't a real gain.

[Tom Mazanec]

We Just Witnessed A New “Lehman Brothers Moment”, And It Threatens To Unleash A Frenzy Of Panic On Wall Street
November 9, 2022
http://themostimportantnews.com/archive ... all-street

[Higgenbotham]

There was some very interesting research done in the 1980's about just how accurate expects in finances, economics and politics are in their predictions. I don't have the research to hand but the conclusions were that more than 80% of the experts were less accurate than a dart throwing chimp.
So when someone becomes adamant about a prediction I always (silently) ask "Are you a dart throwing chimp or a human expert?"
So Higg, with any luck perhaps you will score on the Bitcoin flurry.

Similar to this idea, there are certain stocks that almost all of the analysts favor and also have very low short interest. I've noticed with those stocks, when an unexpected piece of bad news hits the stock during a bear trend in the market, there will typically be no reaction higher for quite awhile, sometimes as long as 1-2 weeks. A novice would think that since everyone loves the stock or at least doesn't hate it, there would be dip buyers getting into the stock but it seems in reality there is nobody to cover their short.

[Higgenbotham]

My next step will be to re-establish shorts over the next few days if the market continues moving up.

I've been going a little bit short after the close as the aftermarket has continued higher. Round numbers, the high in the S&P this year has been 4800 and the low has been 3500. Within that difference of 1300 points there are important fibonacci ratios of 800 and 500. 4300 (3500 + 800 or 4800 - 500) has already proven important and I am wondering whether 4000 will be able to hold back the tide.

[aeden]

Sold into 39xx rather heavy H
Will check the 300 week and other channel maps.
These dead cats are really a triple top scurvy lot in to march sweeps.
We are willing to tread extra carefull and look around after this massacre.
We did really good today on this belated coil move. As you noted spot on deal with the facts
as the first twenty percent of the Z curve and just let them deal with the problems long and short.
I have no issues with my theta carry. BTC should settle down and we will think about separate from the spx
and other pair trade linear logic maps. Wish me luck surgery tomorrow for a blown achilles tendom leaking
and causes a problem to deal with. As indicated before Nurse Goodbody my Wife of 43 years has got it.
As you know the other kids are handy in advanced medical issues. As Ziehan indicated these kids are the most
educated in America History. We even taught them common sense which appears in limited supply also we witness.

As for the juice boxes they got sucked dry and crushed. Cariboo will get educated just like before.
One bear market at a time.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=L_4hsEUp

[Phong Tran]

Bulls will be looking at the inverse H&S on the SPX which if valid and they can push it would price target range back up to 4325 area - first they'll need to get past 4100. These bear market rallies will keep the masses asleep until the the real economy implodes, then there won't be anywhere to hide.

[Higgenbotham]

Sold into 39xx rather heavy H

Could be a good move. Your posting that reminded me of this:

Something I pasted in my notes years ago:

"A very, very successful trader once told me, to watch the Thursday the week before futures/options expiration. If there is a major move that day, the week of futures/options expiration will move in the opposite direction."

I've never paid much attention to this, as it is hard to define what a major move would be and, according to how I would see it, there's never been a major move on that day to take notice of until now. But we definitely had one yesterday, a major move down, which was "the Thursday the week before futures/options expiration". So according to this market lore, next week should continue up.

I believe that very, very successful trader was Marty Schwartz of Pit Bull and Market Wizards fame, as well as associate of Terry Laundry.

In Market Wizards, the first book of the series, Schwager interviewed Marty Schwartz, a short-term technical trader who had run a $40,000 account into over $20 million while never realizing a drawdown of more than 3% (based on month-end data) in the process. Schwartz took pains to point out that his two worst months—losses of 3% and 2%—were the months his children were born and he was unavoidably distracted. During this period, he had entered ten public trading contests. Nine of these were four-month contests in which he averaged a 210% return nonannualized! In his single one-year contest, he scored a 781% return. The following excerpts from Market Wizards focus on Schwartz’s trading rules and his advice to traders.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/market-wizar ... 32764.html

[vincecate]

So FTX.com was the second largest crypto exchange and has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy. Seems it lost like $8 billion of
customer money. Some spent on politics, yachts, land, etc.
Now after this the SEC decides it should investigate. Bit late.

Tide is going out. Will see who is swimming naked.

[Higgenbotham]

The S&P futures came close to 4000 last night (3997.50) but the S&P cash index has been nowhere near 4000 this morning. During the crash of 2008, a similar thing happened. The futures hit a key level overnight but failed to get anywhere close to that the next day. After that, the market crashed. That's not to predict with a high level of certainty that it will this time. The only thing I would say is, as a strategy, if the market were to start dropping fast from here, I would not be long anything and would not be as quick to cover my short as I would be otherwise (which is still small).