Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

The price pattern in the S&P is potentially set up for a massive collapse, in my opinion.

I've said before that 4200 is a very important level, but that I did not think the market would be able to get over it. Due to that, I thought there might be a serious challenge of that level after it was approached and rejected on February 2. However, the bulls to date have not been able to muster a serious challenge, but 2 weak challenges instead that form a declining series of tops short term from February 2.

Also, I have a possible cycle turn date of February 9 (today). In a strong market it may have been a temporary move over 4200. Instead, it is a lower high, which I interpret as being very bearish. If the market rejects from this level with a fast down move, my interpretation is the market has a good chance of never being up here again.

4200 and 3500 seem to me to be the important numbers the past 2 months. I'm not too interested in any levels besides those and their fibs. I'd be really surprised if the market could get over 4200 the rest of this year but wouldn't be surprised to see something over 4000.

It's still my guess that 4200 should cap this market and maybe 4000 will do it.

Yes. That last move was only 15 points down though.

I thought 4080-4100 was really the resistance line before, but it got back up ... however can't muster enough FOMO buying to get over 4200 as you state. I don't buy it either, at all, and the longer this goes on the higher the probability is for something breaking. Right now, it looks like March. Did they start the hiking last March? I think the beginning was an announcement on March 16 of last year that they'd increase 25 bp

[richard5za]

As I write, Friday morning ET, on the SP500 the 5dma and 15dma are both still above the 50dma and 200dma. Which is technically bullish. However the price action is pointing downwards. 4150 has proved to be a tough nut for the bulls to crack, but there may well be further attempts. Any thing is possible including the fall / crash that you feel is possible, Higgie, but I think a choppy market between 3800 and 4150 is more likely for the next 45 to 90 days. It may drop to 3200 during the year, but where will it be at year end? I don't see a crash in earnings; for one thing 40% of S&P earnings come from outside the USA and unless dollar strength goes back to where it was the weaker dollar will buffer earnings. So where at year end? My guess (total guess) is about 3800 to 4000 with a P/E ratio of about 13 to 15

[Cool Breeze]

As I write, Friday morning ET, on the SP500 the 5dma and 15dma are both still above the 50dma and 200dma. Which is technically bullish. However the price action is pointing downwards. 4150 has proved to be a tough nut for the bulls to crack, but there may well be further attempts. Any thing is possible including the fall / crash that you feel is possible, Higgie, but I think a choppy market between 3800 and 4150 is more likely for the next 45 to 90 days. It may drop to 3200 during the year, but where will it be at year end? I don't see a crash in earnings; for one thing 40% of S&P earnings come from outside the USA and unless dollar strength goes back to where it was the weaker dollar will buffer earnings. So where at year end? My guess (total guess) is about 3800 to 4000 with a P/E ratio of about 13 to 15

The real question is if it hits 3200 or lower, since the "end of the year" is arbitrary. That is, if the system has fragility or something breaks, and they pivot, that could be well before the end of the year and make the final 31 DEC number fairly irrelevant as to what's happening in the economy. Especially for us bears who think there are MAJOR problems. I will sell some portion (50%?) of my inverse ETFs if it approaches the 3200 level. Then, at the same time, I'll start stocking up on long term commodities/energy/btc. That's what I'm waiting for.

[aeden]

closed biti 11:40 AM ET
bought 8000 90daytbill 4.805%
nothing left on table end of the day
thread: taproot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAKsZIbh-gs

[richard5za]

Cool, in my humble opinion, in current circumstances anything is possible. I don’t have a thesis, I am not waiting for anything, but I do know that the very short term price action is playable with small stop losses for the times that we get on the wrong side. I never close up for the day with money on the table

[aeden]

eAKsZIbh-gs charts will decide l8ter for that pair trade.
30xx is possible and risk is not probability. I will forward a indication.
You chaps are over the target. Trade Genius query will assit in a few logic points but write your own algos.
Never buy the package. Anyways, do pay attention. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwWkNH-NiCI
Pierre Delecto Uniparty body farm theiving half wits are another issue.

thread: l8ter, alice

Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:00 am
Cariboo and btc discussion again in btc worship cult even as taproot rendered it marked for DOJ criminal code sweeps.
Tantamount to a tautological premise in a classical Utility economic claim.
Keynes and Hayek discussed it as basket currency or to say competing private exchange.
Hayek included it in His 1974 thesis.
DOD white papers in the 1990's and the ALICE algo papers included
to the Toronto to Frankfurt North Branch Taproot papers noted here.
Code was written then cashed out.
No winners, only widows, and orphans.

We are surrounded by idiots and in the other half if you considered are worse than that.

Just like the tyrants of old, this current crop hides its lust for power behind a cloak of fairness and the “common good.” No, they’re not cutting off food supplies or building labor camps but these modern-day tyrants seek the same ends: crush the opposition and control the masses. t
As it was put the current ability in mental, physical, and emotional appeal of overcooked spaghetti. https://www.wikicelebs.com/yoel-roth-wiki/
Just with a lot less talent is vastly understating it. fify
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CMVAkOmFhA

[aeden]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1624099245182660614 root kit
https://themarshallreport.wordpress.com ... -this-one/

Amos 5:19 In that day you will be like a man who runs from a lion-only to meet a bear.
Escaping from the bear, he leans his hand against a wall in his house-and he's bitten by a snake.

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyVF_fLYx4M your being set up, please eyeroll as the longer view bull.

[richard5za]

This weblog was set up as a generational forum for very long term generational cycles. So it seems that we are all discusing the short term as far as 2023 because none of us are seeing the long generational term? Any views? Perhaps its a case of waiting for world war?

[richard5za]

Vince, looking at forecasts for tomorrow's CPI forecast, I see that the Clevland Fed is forecasting 6.48% But they don't need to be out by much for inflation to be higher than prior month !!!