Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:** 16-Aug-2019 Inscrutability

Lol! Two inscrutable guys posting inscrutable messages to each other.
Very enjoyable!
Let's be clear:

The stock market is going to crash.
That's much more scrutable.
Thank you for the clarity regarding the clarity.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Ray Dalio says he wouldn’t rule out China weaponizing its massive US Treasury holdings

PUBLISHED FRI, AUG 16 2019 5:14 AM EDT
UPDATED FRI, AUG 16 2019 3:22 PM EDT

Yen Nee Lee

KEY POINTS

When repeatedly asked whether China could weaponize its ownership of Treasurys in its trade war with the U.S., Ray Dalio said: “I wouldn’t rule it out.”
That view contrasts with that of many observers, who have said such a move will harm China too.
But Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, says Washington and Beijing could reach a stage where they look to inflict “maximum harm” on each other as their fight worsens.

Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio said he wouldn’t rule out China using its Treasury holdings to gain an upper hand against the U.S. in the trade war — a view that contrasts with many other observers.

“We have a debtor-creditor relationship, not just a trade relationship. And (that) can be a dangerous thing,” Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, told CNBC’s “Managing Asia” in Singapore.

When repeatedly pressed on whether Beijing could weaponize its ownership of U.S. Treasurys, Dalio responded: “I wouldn’t rule it out.”

Analysts and investors have said that amid escalating trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies, China could resort to the so-called nuclear option to hurt the U.S.: Selling its large Treasury holdings. But many dismissed that suggestion, saying such a move will harm China too.

China was the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys until June, when it was surpassed by Japan. According to data by the U.S. Treasury department, China held $1.11 trillion of U.S. debt in June.

Dalio argued that given the uncertainties surrounding the trade fight between Washington and Beijing, it’s difficult to anticipate the next steps either side would take. And as the conflict worsens, the two economic giants could start looking to inflict “maximum harm” on each other.

“What we worry about — and I think it’s a reality — is that in this new world of adversely affecting each other economically and hurting each other’s businesses, each tries to think: ‘Now, how can I do the other the maximum harm?’ And the Chinese are clever at doing that,” he told CNBC’s Christine Tan.

Trade war harm

Since the start of the trade war last year, U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods — and additional levies are scheduled for September and December. The U.S. has also made it more difficult for Chinese firms, such as Huawei, to do business with American firms. Washington also labelled China a currency manipulator.

China, for its part, increased tariffs on billions of dollars of American goods in retaliation, and stopped buying U.S. agriculture products.

Experts frequently cite the tariff fight between Washington and Beijing as the biggest worry in the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. Growth has slowed down globally, and further retaliatory actions from the U.S. and China could push the world economy into a recession, economists have warned.

Dalio agreed that the U.S.-China fight is “negative” for the world.

“I’m not able to call who’s stronger,” said Dalio. “But I think it’s a little scary that ... as we let our imaginations go ... we could see the various harms that these countries can do to each other in the process, and what that’ll mean for the world economy.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/ray-dal ... e-war.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

rule 7. Question motives. Twist or amplify any fact which could be taken to imply that the opponent operates out of a hidden personal agenda or other bias. This avoids discussing issues and forces the accuser on the defensive.

rule 12. Enigmas have no solution. Drawing upon the overall umbrella of events surrounding the crime and the multitude of players and events, paint the entire affair as too complex to solve.
This causes those otherwise following the matter to begin to loose interest more quickly without having to address the actual issues.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/per ... nning.html

The sun came up today. Dr. Copper and Mr. Kahn survived for good and bad times.

Last time I checked forty percent never got planted. If I understood the actual burn rate they are failing 400 percent faster than we are
asking for fair trade. I hate to be blunt but no asshole is worth 12 million dollars a year in wages and options. We understood the size had
to match what we are up against in assets as they ignored the point for over two decades. I just avoid those institutionalized and inscrutable
mindsets for reasons noted for many years.

Keynes was correct on some advise to other factors readily ignored.

As stated before long or short?

Yes.

Will the market fail? Ask the Consumer who is the ruthless arbiter. That is not polemics.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 081205.htm I have no phone since those who do are actually disconnected as we noted long ago.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Time that the medical profession discovered Phages.
Of cause there is no profit for Big Pharma to actually cure the patient.

Routine procedure almost killed another relative.

10 percent of U.S. deaths are due to preventable medical mistakes.

If you think guns are as dangerous as the root issue you are indeed deceived.

The Europeans studies are read first for us locally also.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

This weekend we read on the boards that sentiment has gotten very negative very quickly and therefore the stock market will rally to work off that bearish sentiment. Or something like that.

Is that right? Not necessarily, but it can be right and it has been generally right in the past, though maybe not entirely precise.

Why has it been right? Well, the primary reason in my opinion is because stocks have been in a bull market for, oh, about the last 500 years. Therefore, since stocks have always continued higher at some point after sentiment turns more negative, it seems right to think that will continue. But it won't if stocks have indeed made a 500 year high and are heading much lower for many years, if not forever. In that case, the sentiment figures are accurate at best and overly optimistic at worst.

So sentiment really means nothing. What matters is how accurately the sentiment figures reflect reality.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

As an example, if China decides that Sunday night would be the opportune time to ratchet up the economic war and crash our markets, 34% bulls and 56% bears (or whatever the similar figures are that are being quoted) probably means the market is too optimistic.

Why would somebody think China would do that? Well, a few days ago China reset their currency peg over 7, the US labeled them a currency manipulator, then the next day they reset it back under 7 (something like that). And everything went back to looking pretty good. Most breathed a sigh of relief and said all is well.

I looked at it differently. In my opinion, what China did was see how much they needed to move the needle to get how much bang in terms of a stock market crash. So let's say they moved the peg 0.05 and they got the S&P to go down 5% the next day. Now they may figure if they move the peg 0.20, and threaten to sell $500 billion worth of long term US treasuries, and sell so may billion worth of stock index futures in the dark of the night, maybe they could get a crash out of it.

In that case, 34% bulls did not accurately reflect reality. While sentiment was net negative, it wasn't negative enough.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Ray Dalio:

“What we worry about — and I think it’s a reality — is that in this new world of adversely affecting each other economically and hurting each other’s businesses, each tries to think: ‘Now, how can I do the other the maximum harm?’ And the Chinese are clever at doing that,” he told CNBC’s Christine Tan.
I added the underlines for emphasis.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Mr Kahn said: “I would recommend that private investors tune out the prevailing views they hear on the radio, television and the internet. They are not helpful. People say 'buy low, sell high’, but you cannot do this if you are following the herd.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Your flutter theory covers more than a few concrete points H.

Also the automatic way to support publishers and content creators is a monthly payment and browse normally.
The sites you visit receive your contributions automatically, based on your attention as measured by Brave.

I will set auto contribute since we take no prisoners here and I indeed appreciate that.

https://brave.com/download/

Patriot Act had its origins in Janet Reno and the Clinton Administration so ask the current office how that worked out
with the DOJ coup problem not resolved from the rot within.
Last edited by aeden on Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 17-Aug-2019 China selling off Treasuries
Higgenbotham wrote: > Why would somebody think China would do that? Well, a few days ago
> China reset their currency peg over 7, the US labeled them a
> currency manipulator, then the next day they reset it back under 7
> (something like that). And everything went back to looking pretty
> good. Most breathed a sigh of relief and said all is well.
They reset it back below 7, but then the next fixings were above 7.
Higgenbotham wrote: > I looked at it differently. In my opinion, what China did was see
> how much they needed to move the needle to get how much bang in
> terms of a stock market crash. So let's say they moved the peg
> 0.05 and they got the S&P to go down 5% the next day. Now they may
> figure if they move the peg 0.20, and threaten to sell $500
> billion worth of long term US treasuries, and sell so may billion
> worth of stock index futures in the dark of the night, maybe they
> could get a crash out of it.
Maybe this is famous last words, but I can't see any possibility that
the CCP would do anything like this. This is far from their M.O.

One issue is that the Chinese have no ability to control stock prices
in that way, and they know it. Second, even if they could induce a
crash in NY, it would trigger crashes in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and
Shanghai, and then in other Asian stock markets. That would be a
disaster for Asia, and the Chinese would be blamed for it, for no gain
to themselves.

The CCP is an elite corrupt club of criminal thugs. They look for
ways to use criminal activities to get what they want at no cost to
themselves.

I'm trying to think of an analogy that might explain this. How about
this: Suppose that I were a CCP thug and I wanted your car. I might
consider buying it from you, but since the CCP considers you to be a
barbarian, I wouldn't want to demean myself. I might consider
stealing it from you, and that would be the most approriate thing,
because I'm in the Master Race and you're a barbarian, so you don't
even deserve a car. You can walk. That's how the CCP thinks.

The concept of selling off US Treasuries to create a Wall Stree crash
would be doing the following: I get in my car, and smash it into your
car, destroying both of them. As a CCP thug I would never do that,
for the simple reason that I don't get your car that way, and in fact
destroy my own car. The CCP criminal thug mind would not think of
doing that.

Although the Chinese are furious about Trump's trade sanctions,
they're not the CCP's biggest problem. China's economy may be going
into a recession. A recession is bad new for any country, but it
could be disastrous for the CCP, since it would mean Xi Jinping had
lost his Mandate from Heaven, which would result in an anti-CCP
rebellion.

A far bigger problem than the trade sanctions is the unrest in Hong
Kong. The unrest is occurring along the same north vs south fault
line that led to the last two generational crisis civil wars -- Mao's
communist rebellion, and the Taiping rebellion. The CCP thugs are
aware of that, and would not do something that would be likely to
stimulate an anti-CCP rebellion. Remember: This is a bunch of thugs
so paranoid, they're afraid of Winnie the Pooh.

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