Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:** 21-Dec-2019 World View: The Trigger
Higgenbotham wrote: > Where I don't agree with may of the pundits, is the questions is
> often asked, "OK, but what will trigger (fill in the blank -
> inflation or what have you)?" and the reflexive response is, "Next
> recession." I don't think that is necessarily true when there is a
> massive bubble which is the tail wagging the dog of the
> economy. For example, the stock market bubble peaked in 2000, but
> there was no recession until 2001. In 1929, stocks and the economy
> turned down at roughly the same time. My best guess is the stock
> market will peak before the next recession and it will be the drop
> in the stock market that then slides the economy into recession,
> officially speaking (NBER).
That's quite possible, but I tend to favor the theory that the trigger
will be something exogenous, probably something to do with China,
either economically or militarily.

I take note of the fact that there are a lot of new tariffs being
imposed by the US. Even though they're justified since they're almost
all reciprocal to tariffs or trade restrictions that other countries
have had in place for decades, the fact that they're new is
destabilizing. Or, to put it another way, they're slowly eroding the
periphery now, and will soon affect the capital cities of the hegemon.
I agree with that. The exogenous event will occur first, then the US stock market slide, followed by the US recession. The stock market may peak before the exogenous event, but it will be the exogenous event that triggers a significant US stock market slide, both of which, in my opinion, will occur before there is any sign of recession, and before the NBER's retroactive dating of the recession that will happen about a year after the recession starts.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:** 21-Dec-2019 World View: The Trigger
Higgenbotham wrote: > Where I don't agree with may of the pundits, is the questions is
> often asked, "OK, but what will trigger (fill in the blank -
> inflation or what have you)?" and the reflexive response is, "Next
> recession." I don't think that is necessarily true when there is a
> massive bubble which is the tail wagging the dog of the
> economy. For example, the stock market bubble peaked in 2000, but
> there was no recession until 2001. In 1929, stocks and the economy
> turned down at roughly the same time. My best guess is the stock
> market will peak before the next recession and it will be the drop
> in the stock market that then slides the economy into recession,
> officially speaking (NBER).
That's quite possible, but I tend to favor the theory that the trigger
will be something exogenous, probably something to do with China,
either economically or militarily.

I take note of the fact that there are a lot of new tariffs being
imposed by the US. Even though they're justified since they're almost
all reciprocal to tariffs or trade restrictions that other countries
have had in place for decades, the fact that they're new is
destabilizing. Or, to put it another way, they're slowly eroding the
periphery now, and will soon affect the capital cities of the hegemon.
I agree with that. The exogenous event will occur first, then the US stock market slide, followed by the US recession. The stock market may peak before the exogenous event, but it will be the exogenous event that triggers a significant US stock market slide, both of which, in my opinion, will occur before there is any sign of recession, and before the NBER's retroactive dating of the recession that will happen about a year after the recession starts.
The stock market could slide and then quickly seriously correct without an exogenous event. Hence that lovely expression that "the bulls walk up the stairs but the bears jump out the window" Down 50% still gives a PE ratio above the long term average. Easy for the market to bottom at a PE ratio of say 9. Its been bottoming below 10 and as low as 5 for all of recorded Dow history. But to get to the levels that you guys are talking about needs something really serious, like a war or global depression, zero liquidity, or similar.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I think I can only be sure about one thing: The stock market can peak before the start of the next recession.

I don't feel too sure about saying anything beyond that. The only thing I can think to add is we are seeing exogenous events on a regular basis that people could attribute as being the "cause" of a stock market slide (in a free market) if a stock market slide (in a free market) were actually occurring. If the Dow were going down, we'd probably be seeing headlines like, "Dow down 500 on Hong Kong worries" or "Dow down 1000 on North Korea 'Christmas Gift' Worries". It is my belief that this bull market was successfully engineered to a new all time high over the 2007 high by the Central Banks, money center banks, and large corporations, not real investors. Therefore, it may take a really serious exogenous event to take this market down if these parties are determined to continue manipulating the stock market higher with more and more ridiculous interventions. Or they may lose their resolve and just let it fall (I think that started to play out in 2018, but they lost their resolve to lose their resolve and went back to manipulating the market higher). Or they may lose their ability to manipulate it higher and it will crash ~50% in a short time. Even if it is a smaller herd of elites taking the market higher, at some point herd dynamics probably still apply (and that may be what the repo market interest rate spike was telling us).
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:Even if it is a smaller herd of elites taking the market higher, at some point herd dynamics probably still apply...
Herd Dynamics
Strategies for managing the dynamics of your small herd.

Have you ever experienced that feeling of fear when your horse appears to lose it? She whinnies for the other horses and becomes uncontrollable. All you wanted was to go for a ride, right? You thought, “What’s the big deal?” I hate to tell you this, but it is a big deal to your horse. The herd is her world.

A common struggle equine guardians often encounter is difficulty managing the dynamics of their small herd. Herd dynamics can be either harmonious or disastrous. Although you want harmony, encountering disturbance in your herd comes with the territory of having horses. Why?
https://equinewellnessmagazine.com/herd-dynamics/
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote: A common struggle equine guardians often encounter is difficulty managing the dynamics of their small herd. Herd dynamics can be either harmonious or disastrous. Although you want harmony, encountering disturbance in your herd comes with the territory of having horses. Why?
Seeing no options left, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a bailout of $3.625 billion by the major creditors to avoid a wider collapse in the financial markets.[30] The principal negotiator for LTCM was general counsel James G. Rickards.[31] The contributions from the various institutions were as follows:[32][33]

$300 million: Bankers Trust, Barclays, Chase, Credit Suisse First Boston, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Salomon Smith Barney, UBS
$125 million: Société Générale
$100 million: Paribas
Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Crédit Agricole[34] declined to participate.
Revenge was exacted for this 10 years later and both Lehman and Bear were allowed to go down. What are the herd dynamics that are operating now?
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higgenbotham wrote:I think I can only be sure about one thing: The stock market can peak before the start of the next recession.

I don't feel too sure about saying anything beyond that. The only thing I can think to add is we are seeing exogenous events on a regular basis that people could attribute as being the "cause" of a stock market slide (in a free market) if a stock market slide (in a free market) were actually occurring. If the Dow were going down, we'd probably be seeing headlines like, "Dow down 500 on Hong Kong worries" or "Dow down 1000 on North Korea 'Christmas Gift' Worries". It is my belief that this bull market was successfully engineered to a new all time high over the 2007 high by the Central Banks, money center banks, and large corporations, not real investors. Therefore, it may take a really serious exogenous event to take this market down if these parties are determined to continue manipulating the stock market higher with more and more ridiculous interventions. Or they may lose their resolve and just let it fall (I think that started to play out in 2018, but they lost their resolve to lose their resolve and went back to manipulating the market higher). Or they may lose their ability to manipulate it higher and it will crash ~50% in a short time. Even if it is a smaller herd of elites taking the market higher, at some point herd dynamics probably still apply (and that may be what the repo market interest rate spike was telling us).
My hunch is that today 23 December will be a down day for SP 500 As ar midnight NY time futures in global markets were unchanged with Shanghai and ASX down Punters looking uncertain

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Herd dynamics?

Best troll is the US will have a induced civil war coming in a few months. From the reports I am reading and hearing, we will be silently invaded by UN troops to do the dirty work of the Deep State. Their goal is to start a civil war through gun confiscation, then invade and possible cripple America with an EMP.
Anybody that thinks the memes are off the rocker only has to look at the history of our FBI and CIA conducting domestic terrorism, overthrowing other governments and totally destroying other countries to the point of collapse.
The DOJ is on trial. Omission is the mission.

Chicago party 13 shot with four in critical condition. Synoptic scriptures 4 books and thirteen Apostles.
This will be be about about water wheat weather and piggyback globalist lies.
Stock up kids these are the good old days.

The first seven Salem markers have already announced themselves.
Another went off the other day which we noted.
As the Watchers have warned. They will take as the Elders warned.
Wake up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlIxKu-gAMc Pontius Pilate Pelosi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drpdrQq8c98

https://whistleblower.org/bio-william-b ... irk-wiebe/ These are facts. A few should be jailed and a few more under Military incarceration to meet a fate deserved.

Matthew 24:6-14
Last edited by aeden on Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:47 am, edited 2 times in total.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=y_5hHH-j

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufiE8ARCXO0

34x?
window mid metal jan bootstrap reset

“Right now, there’s no real inflation at play. But if we go further than we are currently, inflation is inevitably going to rise.” Alan Greenspan
https://chapwoodindex.com/
The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America.
They ignore what we already know.

water wheat weather

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

China started the trade war against the US in 1994, by weaponizing the Yuan with the full approval and support advice from Kissinger.
Check the FX yourself.
Check the balance of trade yourself.
Check the sanity of the Peg since Volkner.
Check for yourself they are not democrats.

Preterist view: Pinpoints the start of the famine at year 44, which kept repeating right into the First Jewish–Roman War of 66. Ernest Renan (19th century), viewed year 68 as the most significant year of the famine. The famine was so severe that “mothers ate their children to survive”, while Jewish revolt leader, John Gischala, and his men, consumed the oil and wine that were luxury items from the Jerusalem temple.
Futurist view: Inflation and famine will plague the earth during World War III. Though many will starve, the wealthy will enjoy the luxuries of oil and wine.
Idealist view: This rider speaks the economic hardship and poverty that follow the unleashing of wars on humankind, while the rich get richer.
Pericopic view: Conveyed also: Isaiah 2:13; "the trees of the field", in Isaiah 55:12; are interpreted of kingdoms (l): the Alexandrian copy, the Complutensian edition, the Vulgate Latin, and all the Oriental versions, read before this clause, "and the third part of the earth was burnt"; that is, of the Roman empire: and all green grass was burnt up; the common people, who may be compared to spires of "grass" for their multitude, being as it were innumerable; and to "green" grass, for their delightful, comfortable, and flourishing condition before these calamities came upon them; and for their weakness and impotency to withstand such powerful enemies; see Job 5:25; and these commonly suffer most when a country is overrun and plundered by an enemy.

Looting intellectual property as we have noted numerous times.

We will export what we can and bad intel is a simple choice.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

More rarely Kulturkampf, the term is used by extension to refer to the power struggles between emerging constitutional democratic nation.
Since the diversity and inclusion strain was unleashed https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boein ... rg-out-ceo
the rate of internal decay was noted as H indicated also. They would not even monitor the level and quality of their own vehicle.

Rope burn as we noted back some.

You have a unconscious bias and only 287 more for the thought experiment to moulder.

The seven-sided stone was relayed. Few see.

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