Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Cool, keep us updated. January for the first leg down?

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

‘Big Short’ Michael Burry on his current positioning: ‘You have no idea how short I am’

PUBLISHED WED, NOV 16 202210:36 AM EST UPDATED 5 HOURS AGO
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/16/big-sho ... -i-am.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:53 pm
Other Store Expenses. Other store expenses increased by $57.3 million, to $227.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022, as compared to $170.1 million in 2021, due to increases of $41.4 million and $15.2 million in the Acima and Rent-A-Center Business segments, respectively, primarily attributable to higher customer stolen merchandise loss rates, as discussed further in the section “Segment Performance” below.
Operating Profit. Operating profit decreased by $59.0 million, to $11.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022, as compared to $70.0 million in 2021, primarily due to the increases in other store expenses...
Merchandise Losses. Merchandise losses consist of the following:

Three Months Ended
March 31 2022 2021 (in thousands)
Customer stolen merchandise(1)
$ 99,742 $ 56,588

(1)Increase in customer stolen merchandise in 2022 is primarily due to the increase in customer stolen merchandise loss rates for the three months ended March 31, 2022 compared to the corresponding period in 2021, as described in the Results of Operations section above. In addition, the increase is partly attributable to the timing of the acquisition of Acima Holdings on February 17, 2021, resulting in a partial period of losses for the first quarter of 2021.
http://content-archive.fast-edgar.com/2 ... 220331.htm

First Quarter Segment Highlights

Acima Segment: Skip/stolen losses were 12.6% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 8.6% in the prior year period on a pro-forma basis.

Rent-A-Center Business Segment: Skip/stolen losses were 3.9% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 2.7% in the prior year period.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/rent-center-i ... 00425.html


I think Wall Street will whistle past the graveyard on that or similar.

Target: 'Organized retail crime' has driven $400 million in extra profit loss this year

Brian Sozzi·Anchor, Editor-at-Large

Wed, November 16, 2022 at 5:31 AM·3 min read


Target stores are getting looted, and it's taking a huge bite out of profits.

The discount retailer told reporters on a call to discuss its third quarter earnings results that inventory shrinkage — or the disappearance of merchandise — has reduced its gross profit margin by $400 million so far in 2022 compared to 2021.

"At Target, year-to-date, incremental shortage has already reduced our gross margin by more than $400 million vs. last year," Target CFO Michael Fiddelke said on the earnings call, "and we expect it will reduce our gross margin by more than $600 million for the full year."

Fiddelke detailed how there are "a handful of things that can drive shrink in our business and theft is certainly a key driver. We know we're not alone across retail in seeing a trend that I think has gotten increasingly worse over the last 12 to 18 months. So we're taking the right actions in our stores to help curb that trend where we can, but that becomes an increasing headwind on our business and we know the business of others."

A Target spokesperson told Yahoo Finance via email after the call the shrinkage was mostly specifically attributed to "organized retail crime."
https://news.yahoo.com/target-organized ... 06396.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 pm
You might remember a previous post where I documented what Bernanke was told in August 2007 by PIMCO and others. They told him in August 2007 with the S&P about 13% off the July high (which happened the same week the Bear Stearns MBS funds went belly up) that he had better drop rates by morning or the Dow would be down another thousand points. There was no question he could do that and he did. Doing so some weeks or months from now in the midst of a meltdown could cause more damage than it fixes.
I and other PIMCO professionals were attempting to describe to high-ranking Treasury and Fed officials the near-frozen commercial-paper markets and the draining confidence of bond and stock investors worldwide. It was Thursday, August 16. Stocks had closed down 210 points and were expected to open hundreds of points lower on Friday. The country’s largest mortgage originator, Countrywide Financial, was rumored to be in liquidation mode (it survived that crisis). This was to be Ben Bernanke’s first test, an opportunity to prove that he and his board of governors knew “something” as opposed to “nothing.” Pass the test he did, cutting the discount rate the next morning and calming markets in ensuing weeks
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/ec ... they-know/
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

It's over next year, the question is, what month? And what breaks in the meantime/

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higg, this extract from your notes:

"A very, very successful trader once told me, to watch the Thursday the week before futures/options expiration. If there is a major move that day, the week of futures/options expiration will move in the opposite direction."

I've never paid much attention to this, as it is hard to define what a major move would be and, according to how I would see it, there's never been a major move on that day to take notice of until now.


Okay, so on Thursday 10th the S&P 500 went up 5.7% so if this guy is correct this week should in theory be a down week and its down about 2% as I write

But it looks like there might be a failed head and shoulders if the index moves above circa 3960 then 3985, and in which case there should be a strongish upward movement for the week.

Whoever said that markets aren’t fascinating

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Higg,
I'm having trouble working out the maths / logic on why if the Thursday before option expiry there is a big move then option expiry week will be in the opposite direction.
The expression" From failed moves come fast moves"because the majority get caught on the wrong side of the line, might just apply here.
But why the Thursday? Any views?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

I have a feeling they'll give me enough time to rid myself of positions in December. Then decide what to do with all my cash. Likely, wait. Right?

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Yes.

t sweeps for blm supports sold short also as
python can help you for scrapes as we do utilize here

Taco Bell: https://archive.is/LLY9l Target: https://archive.is/YoIrO TBS: https://archive.is/N0QhU Tesco: https://archive.is/hZS7B Thatgamecompany: https://archive.is/7po1C Ticketmaster: https://archive.is/VkhNC TikTok: https://archive.is/bt2vy Timberland: https://archive.is/HZtxv Tinder: https://archive.is/YaY2y TMobile: https://archive.is//KB2lG Tumblr: https://archive.is/i9fMQ Twitch: https://archive.is/DAmR5 Twitter: https://archive.is/auIgi

short list as H indicated

Twitter went private so 268 screwing you blind. For the special we have the Peak-end Rule: the value we place on a memory is not
determined by the average of that event, but is determined by its peak and end.

Target is asking for Senate for support from thieves.
Priceless.
Do use macd rsi momo indi and the usual suspects
H is on target as always.

Thread comes from a spool not a rear view mirror.
thread: 270 -1
https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-w ... 49186a8460
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mp9b4mZpIZ4

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=lV0c-44r
Secular rotation as insourcing gains traction was already noted.
They got no choice and yes they caused the dead cat carcasses to pile up in sticky wages.
Some do remember the silent weapons of the silent war.
Nothing cryptic about rotation plays into the sweeps. As warned they will only stop this cycle holding it underwater
as put until no more bubbles come up. I still consider impedemants in flows from tier priorities to input margins the root cause
of the actual frictions in the monolopy of voilence. Thucylides was right about the gambit. Athens went to far and paid a terrible price also.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peQhtPQ2Kzk
Many segments to not have the advanced automation we alluded to in real time applications.
They rather attack and are the messeger of what is out there.

A warning: the second act is only an intermission before inflation and higher rates return for the finale.
Positions should be rented, not owned.
Once before we told you if you do know it better than your wife abstain.

I have the Jan 13, 2013 sort of forum feeling H and the cantillon sector effects we just carved into.
You can see how that turned out. The comment was they are stuck in the rear view mirror.
BS you drunks and worse drove it into a ditch on purpose.
Last edited by aeden on Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

richard5za wrote:
Thu Nov 17, 2022 10:22 am
Higg,
I'm having trouble working out the maths / logic on why if the Thursday before option expiry there is a big move then option expiry week will be in the opposite direction.
The expression" From failed moves come fast moves"because the majority get caught on the wrong side of the line, might just apply here.
But why the Thursday? Any views?
My philosophy on things like this is: The Wall Street insiders run the sausage factory. All we can figure out about this is what happens the Thursday before the opex week sausage factory goes into operation can in some extreme cases influence how the sausage is made. But if you're not inside the sausage factory there is no way in hell you're going to figure out how they actually make the sausage. It's never entered my mind to even try to figure it out. If I tried my guess is there's about a 90% chance I'd get it wrong enough to make my trading worse.

Expanding on the above, it's also my belief that any one individual correctly interprets less than 1 percent of what they actually see in the market. Most of that is due to the fact that the majority of what is seen in the market that is significant isn't even noticed by a particular individual even if the person is looking right at it, while the rest is misinterpreted. This would include tape action, news, etc.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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