Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
...it’s “ridiculous to put it on us. We’re not the ones that created the problem.”
True as we head into September.
They are cemented in chaos on the runway as it was put the summer of chaos into Elul.
No they cannot see or hear.
True as we head into September.
They are cemented in chaos on the runway as it was put the summer of chaos into Elul.
No they cannot see or hear.
- Tom Mazanec
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- Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm
Re: Financial topics
-vincenteThe way to encourage inflation is to have interest rates below the inflation rate. We have that. So really inflation
should be going up.
And that has to be the actual inflation rate, not the phony number the government gives out. Shadowstats I hear has that twice or more what it is said to be (can't afford a subscription).
Last edited by Tom Mazanec on Tue Jul 05, 2022 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
- Tom Mazanec
- Posts: 4181
- Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm
Re: Financial topics
DJIA:
30,448.61
-648.65
30,448.61
-648.65
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
-
- Posts: 2960
- Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm
Re: Financial topics
How low do we go? I say S&P to 3200-ish by mid August.
It is amusing when you guys point out early day (open) drops and then it returns to a small positive day by the end of it.
Re: Financial topics
So they have now raised the 8.44% to 8.52%. So last month's 8.6% is only estimated to drop to 8.5% after 2 months. So the data is not showing a rapid drop back to 2% inflation, which most people still seem to believe.vincecate wrote: ↑Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:08 amSo I think it will be more than 8.6% of last month. I think this will surprise people.
Cleveland Fed is estimating that next month will go down to 8.44% but if July 13th info is higher (as I expect) they
will increase the next month estimate that same day.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
Again, I expect the number on the 13th to be high and for them to raise the 8.52% right after that. It would not take much for inflation to keep going up the next two reports.
At some point the transient idea will really be behind us and people will see us going up from 8.6% and I think that is when people really panic.
Re: Financial topics
https://mises.org/library/bureaucracy
So it begins.
Book four reopened.
Good luck into earnings as Morgan Stanley warned.
So it begins.
Book four reopened.
Good luck into earnings as Morgan Stanley warned.
- Tom Mazanec
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- Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm
Re: Financial topics
One thing that might keep inflation down for a bit is going into the Greater Recession. If a lot of businesses go out of business and have liquidation sales that might make a dent.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
Re: Financial topics
There are sort of two groups of things, the necessary and the optional. On optional things you can have going out of business sales. On the necessary things I expect continued inflation.Tom Mazanec wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:22 amOne thing that might keep inflation down for a bit is going into the Greater Recession. If a lot of businesses go out of business and have liquidation sales that might make a dent.
- Tom Mazanec
- Posts: 4181
- Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm
Re: Financial topics
A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It’s Imminent
https://internationalman.com/articles/a ... -imminent/
https://www.aier.org/article/strike-thr ... l-reserve/
Great Depression Thirties and Great Inflation Seventies were strikes one and two.
Rising Interest Rates May Blow Up the Federal Budget
https://mises.org/wire/rising-interest- ... ral-budget
https://internationalman.com/articles/a ... -imminent/
Strike Three for the Federal ReserveTo summarize, here are the five reasons to expect higher interest rates:
Inflation is out of control. Even the government’s official inflation statistics—which understate the situation—are far above current interest rates.
The federal government must issue a flood of new Treasuries to finance multi-trillion dollar deficits—which are here to stay.
Sanctions are eroding confidence in the US financial system.
Foreigners aren’t buying as many Treasuries.
The Fed is tightening.
When you connect all the dots, I think it’s clear we are starting a new long-term cycle, with rising interest rates and a bear market in bonds. That will have enormous implications for the economy and the stock market.
We will likely see incredible volatility in the financial markets as thousands of businesses that had become accustomed to easy money and artificially low interest rates go bankrupt.
https://www.aier.org/article/strike-thr ... l-reserve/
Great Depression Thirties and Great Inflation Seventies were strikes one and two.
Rising Interest Rates May Blow Up the Federal Budget
https://mises.org/wire/rising-interest- ... ral-budget
If Treasury rates continue to rise, and rise precipitously, the effects on congressional budgeting will be immediate and severe.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain
Re: Financial topics
Now the 8.44% number for 5 weeks from now has been raised to 8.6%. So the Cleveland Fed is not estimating any reduction in the CPI from last month for the 2 following months. Again, they have been low most of the last year.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-resear ... sting.aspx
Last edited by vincecate on Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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