Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 10:40 am
richard5za wrote:
Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:22 am
Cool Breeze wrote:
Mon Nov 21, 2022 10:04 pm
I will likely only hold oil stocks and gold (as well as btc miners), if I do, past next month. Should I sell this week or wait a few weeks, regarding the remainder of what I have, in order to further increase my cash position?
Short term timing advice is very tricky, but medium term in my view there is still some downward action to come on stocks.
Your best guess is what then (tell me your definition of short and medium)?
I can't give you a short term timing. When I short term trade I play the price action as it happens. The market might turn down next week or not. I wait until we get there. No honest, stock market competent person can give you accurate short term pricing changes

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:57 am
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 pm
richard5za wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:03 am



Would be very interested in any additional views you may have
I have no strongly held views and no new ideas. It's still my guess that 4200 should cap this market and maybe 4000 will do it.
Still not much new here. I started going short November 10 and added a little as the S&P approached and exceeded 4000. Some have opined that today started a new leg up. I am skeptical of everybody's bullish predictions and their associated targets (4150, etc.) and will just continue to slowly build shorts if the market rises.

My equity is holding steady since starting to short again on November 10 and my account has good gains since the market bottom at 3500 (which is good performance for someone biased as bearishly as me). The big spike down in account value late September was a withdrawal.

If the 20 year (double decennial) cycle deserves any weight, December 2, 2002 was a local top before a sizable move down to the March 12, 2003 low. My best recollection and I have a bias that pattern could be approximately repeated (and with bigger swoons).

Image

Link to 2002/2003 chart:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... se&state=9
Were they raising rates at the end of 2002? It looks like they did, half a point in November of 2002 and continued cutting into mid 2003 and beyond. Very interesting.

Without something cataclysmic, and that might happen in 2023-25 for sure, I see the S&P back down to 2800-3200, then foreign money will pour in and support the US markets. Later on, the government will have to print due to the global depression, and that's when we see oil, gold and BTC go through the roof.

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://twitter.com/SmritiSharma_/statu ... tory-china

#Foxconn, #Zhengzhou City, #CCPChina, newly recruited workers break out of the #iPhone city after they found they have to live and work together with veterans who might have #Covid. The terms of their contracts were not the same as they were promised, social media post says.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

How is this oil price versus energy stocks to be interpreted?

https://thechartreport.us20.list-manage ... 689db4b196

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote:
Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:40 am
How is this oil price versus energy stocks to be interpreted?

https://thechartreport.us20.list-manage ... 689db4b196
Those holdings are mostly oil stocks, not "energy" generically per se

I'd say that the oil price in general is more "manipulated" like all pure commodities are by central banks/members, whereas the market flows and the business models (dividends, discipline, cash) bring in more to the stocks themselves.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

November 30, 2022 6:09 AM CST Last Updated 2 hours ago

Crowdstrike Holdings warning sparks selloff in cybersecurity stocks

Reuters

Nov 30 (Reuters) - A warning from Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD.O) that clients were cutting back on spending and delaying purchases due to an economic slowdown slammed cybersecurity stocks on Wednesday, inflicting fresh pain on the battered sector.

Crowdstrike's shares sank 20% before the bell after the company forecast current-quarter revenue on Tuesday that fell short of analysts' estimates, while peers Zscaler Inc (ZS.O), SentinelOne Inc (S.N) and Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O) fell between 2.0% and 6.2%.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crow ... 022-11-30/
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Cool Breeze wrote:
Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:14 am
richard5za wrote:
Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:40 am
How is this oil price versus energy stocks to be interpreted?

https://thechartreport.us20.list-manage ... 689db4b196
Those holdings are mostly oil stocks, not "energy" generically per se

I'd say that the oil price in general is more "manipulated" like all pure commodities are by central banks/members, whereas the market flows and the business models (dividends, discipline, cash) bring in more to the stocks themselves.
Select Sector SPDR Trust Energy is energy stocks on NYSE. The issue is that prices of energy stocks are going up while oil is going down. Why the only recent diverence?

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

I don't see as much of a change anymore.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:57 am
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 pm
richard5za wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:03 am



Would be very interested in any additional views you may have
I have no strongly held views and no new ideas. It's still my guess that 4200 should cap this market and maybe 4000 will do it.
Still not much new here. I started going short November 10 and added a little as the S&P approached and exceeded 4000. Some have opined that today started a new leg up. I am skeptical of everybody's bullish predictions and their associated targets (4150, etc.) and will just continue to slowly build shorts if the market rises.

If the 20 year (double decennial) cycle deserves any weight, December 2, 2002 was a local top before a sizable move down to the March 12, 2003 low. My best recollection and I have a bias that pattern could be approximately repeated (and with bigger swoons).

Link to 2002/2003 chart:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... se&state=9
My favored scenario is taking shape. That would be for today or tomorrow to be a high before a significant move down starts. I added 50% to my short position late yesterday and this morning.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:08 pm
My favored scenario is taking shape. That would be for today or tomorrow to be a high before a significant move down starts. I added 50% to my short position late yesterday and this morning.
So by mid month for sure you think the next leg down is in, big time?

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