Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Retail sales sink 1.2% in December to mark biggest drop since 2009 as holiday season fizzles out

Published: Feb 14, 2019 8:34 a.m. ET

Sales fall for most retailers, delayed government report indicates
By JEFFRY BARTASH
REPORTER

Bloomberg News/Landov
The holiday shopping season turned out to be a bust, according to the government’s long-delayed report on December sales.
The numbers: Sales at U.S. retailers fizzled in December and posted the biggest decline in nine years, according to a long-delayed government report.

Retail sales sank 1.2% in December, the U.S. Census said Thursday. It’s the largest drop since September 2009, a few months after the end of the Great Recession.

Economists polled by MarketWatch expected sales to be flat.

What happened: Sales fell in every retail category except auto dealers and home centers. Auto sales rose 1% and home-center sales edge up 0.3%.

Now the bad news. Sales fell 5.1% at gas stations, but that was not unexpected. Gasoline prices have been falling since last fall.

What’s was surprising was a 3.9% reported decline in sales at Internet sellers. That would mark the sharpest drop since November 2008 — the middle of the last recession.

By all industry accounts, online merchants led by Amazon AMZN, +0.23% and eBay EBAY, +0.47% reaped big sales gains.

Less surprisingly, sales tumbled 3.3% at department stores that have been losing ground for years to mainly Internet based competitors. Traditional brick-and-mortar chains such as Macy’s M, -0.24% Kohl and Nordstrom posted disappointing sales in December.

Sales also fell at bars, restaurants, apparel stores, grocers, home furnishers, pharmacies and outlets that sell hobby items such as books and sporting goods.

Big picture: The sales slump in December is likely to weigh on the government’s official scorecard for the economy known as gross domestic product. Economists had estimated GDP would slow to 2.7% in the final three months of the year, but now that estimate could be taken down even further.

What does it mean for the economy in 2019? Hard to say. The stock market tanked in December and that may have hurt sales. At the same time, though, companies continued to hire at a strong clip in January. As long as the labor market remains healthy the economy should avoid a recession.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/retai ... =bigcharts
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

What does it mean for the economy in 2019? Hard to say. The stock market tanked in December and that may have hurt sales. At the same time, though, companies continued to hire at a strong clip in January. As long as the labor market remains healthy the economy should avoid a recession.
Is a stock market bubble needed to keep retail sales up? If so, it's long past time to worry about building a real economy.

It doesn't matter if companies hired at a strong clip in January if they are not real companies and just part of an unsustainable bubble.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

At the same time, though, companies continued to hire at a strong clip in January. As long as the labor market remains healthy the economy should avoid a recession.
No worries...

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Back in 2009, with the S&P 500 at 1000, this board was buzzing with bearish sentiment. Now, at 2750, all I hear are crickets. No short sellers.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Fundamental questions in life are raised when you consider the difference between a fortress and a prison.
You and me are short a percentage to hedge.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/ who conveyed they are not immune either.
Last edited by aeden on Thu Feb 14, 2019 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

John
Posts: 11478
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Higgenbotham wrote: > Back in 2009, with the S&P 500 at 1000, this board was buzzing
> with bearish sentiment. Now, at 2750, all I hear are crickets. No
> short sellers.
I see two issues related to this.

I've had to deal with a lot of commenters, especially on
Breitbart, so I've been able to see how attitudes have
changed. The way I see it, in the 2004 time frame, people
though I was a harmless kook, so I was tolerated.

But in the last ten years, most people who pay any attention
to me at all have come to realize that, whether they like it
or not, we are headed for a global financial crisis and a
war with China. As a result, instead of being tolerated,
I've increasingly been shunned and hated.

I suspect that you've noticed the same thing.

In terms of going short, in 2009 there was still a debate
about whether the stock market would go up forever, which
would mean that going short was a bad idea. But today,
I see a lot of what I wasn't seeing ten years ago -- there
are a large number of analysts who speculate about when a major
crisis is coming. There's really nothing to debate any more.
It's like any other political issue. You either love Trump
or you hate Trump, and whichever it is, there's nothing
to discuss. It's the same with going short.

The second issue is stupidity. I started watching CNN in 1980,
when it first came on the air. I can recall lots of intelligent
discussions over the years and decades.

Today I can believe how stupid the people are. Opinions are expressed
by nutcases like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the whole day they talk
about nothing except to regurgitate the same idiotic opinions over and
over and over and over. Anything approaching intelligence is a
rarity.

I used to read how SAT scores kept going down, and we really see
the results. It's not a matter of ideology. It's a matter
of complete idiocy. These are people who are too stupid to
understand what "going short" even means.

I've frequently joked that many of these people are too stupid
to pick out China on a map. It turns out I was right.



Jimmy Kimmel - Can you name a country?

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

The issue I see with the fact that there is no bearish sentiment on this board is that, from my perspective, this is the best time to be bearish in the past decade. Maybe my perspective is wrong, but I see good, objective reasons to be bearish on the stock market right here, right now. I can see a lot of avenues for possible discussion of the topic. I opened up one avenue this morning (the worst retail sales report since 2009 - it was in 2009 that this board was buzzing with bearish discussion from dozens of bearish posters here), but there was no response. Yet I can go to sites where there is predominately bullish discussion and find literally hundreds of responses from dozens of posters on those sites in any given day.

It's like people are afraid to even say the stock market is likely to go down because they will be in the minority opinion and look stupid. Like if they stick their neck out and say something bearish the likely response could be something to the effect of, "Everybody knows stocks only go up - look at the past 10 years, you idiot. The Fed can always make the market go up, don't cha know?"
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

aeden wrote:You and me are short a percentage to hedge.
I'm flat out naked short from 2716 average. I'm not long any stocks at all.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

I got two window dates. The NY meltdown is just the first flare shot in the air.
If your under 40 run from NYC. The marxist politicians will cost more than they can even imagine.
I will update sells later since I think it will over react and will hold book four in to march.
Last edited by aeden on Fri Feb 15, 2019 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I think roughly 1000 points could come off the S&P in the next 6 weeks.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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