Financial topics

[aeden]

The word "quarantine" originates from the Venetian dialect form of the Italian quaranta giorni, meaning "forty days".
Fortnight is a unit of time equal to 14 days (2 weeks). The word derives from the Old English term fēowertyne niht, meaning "fourteen nights".
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 520#p50221
twenty seven day was a outlier which was noted.
I respect the report.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 520#p50221
As we warned they have nothing but contempt for us.

"Brethren, do not be children in understanding; however, in malice be babes, but in understanding be men". – 1 Corinthians 14:20

40 days of prayer and fasting would survive in His mercy alone.

Dunning-Kruger never fails.
Cultists mock other people and are incapable of seeing their insanity and idiocy.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly
thread: 8,960

We will stay short and look up after after Lent.
The window was ignored and we wished to be wrong.

Orienting reflex, is an organism's immediate response to a change in its environment.

In the end, it’s a word that says more about the helplessness of the accuser than it does the transgressor.

Level I - pathological defences (i.e. psychotic denial, delusional projection)
Level II - immature defences (i.e. fantasy, projection, passive aggression, acting out)
Level III - neurotic defences (i.e. intellectualization, reaction formation, dissociation, displacement, repression) <----------------------
Level IV - mature defences (i.e. humour, sublimation, suppression, altruism, anticipation)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EupmMLBmIII

[aeden]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIFksZhRZDU
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 590#p50345
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ve-updates
https://artsandculture.google.com/asset ... 0007%7D%7D

[aeden]

They are saying this was not something anyone could have prepared for.
Level I - pathological defences (i.e. psychotic denial, delusional projection)
They also think suckers and you just put a hole in the ground.
Cults and ontology as derived from the Greek words 'ontos' which means being and 'logos'
which means study.
It tries to pin point things around us that actually exist.
It is the study of the nature of being or becoming existence.
For this reason, a tautology is usually undesirable and the demshevik basic discourse of omission.

[John]

** 28-Feb-2020 World View: Collapse of interconnected, interlocking debt

> It may well be forced selling; it depends upon just how reckless
> the trading became; time will tell.

> I don't see how covering shorts can cause a crash, even selling to
> cover shorts. Covering a short is a buy action, so you're buying
> as much as you're selling.

A chain reaction panic would not be caused by recent reckless
transactions or recent shorts. It would be caused by the unraveling
of hundreds of trillions of dollars of interlocking debt that has
been built up since the end of World War II, and people increasingly
ignored the lessons of the Great Depression.

• IMF graph of Global debt growth, 1950-2017

That graph is a year old. Global debt has continued to increase
exponentially, and had reached $253 trillion by September, and is probably
around $260 trillion today.

-- Global debt hits new record of $253 trillion and is set to grow
even more this year
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/global- ... -says.html
(CNBC, 14-Jan-2020)

This debt has been growing exponentially for decades. In addition,
the number of interlocking connections has been growing exponentially.

(This is analogous to the interlocking, interconnected global supply
chains through China that are much in the news these days.)

So the chain reaction panic would be triggered by a major bankruptcy
in one company, which won't then be able to make payments on their
debts, and will sell off their assets, including stocks. Other
companies or hedge funds that counted on receiving those debt payments
would then be forced to sell stocks to pay their own debts, to
cover shorts, or meet margin calls.

The point is that this has nothing to do with recent transactions.
This has to do with an ocean of interlocking, interconnected debt
that has built up since WW II.

In 1929, it took for years for the interconnected debt to unravel
completely, and the market only reached bottom in 1933.

In 1987, ther was a "false panic" that fizzled quickly because there
was still a reasonable amount of interconnected debt.

In 2008, I wrote a lot about this interconnected debt situation,
especially after Bear Stearns and Lehman went backrupt. Normally, the
ocean of interlocking, interconnected debt is self-healing, but in
2008 it wasn't.

** Investors fear a 'chain reaction' in stock market.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... m#e080317b


** Investors are having another nail-biting weekend as Lehman heads off the cliff
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e080913


The thing that I didn't understand in 2008 is that the Fed could
"print money" in massive amounts using quantitative easing.

The purpose of QE was specifically to allow people to borrow more
money instead of being forced to sell off.

So today we're facing the same situation we faced in 2008, but with
some differences. If you look at the IMF graph, it seems that debt in
the US has leveled off (at an extremely high), but has grown much
faster outside the United States. If a new panic begins, the Fed and
other central banks would try to "print money" to patch things up, but
with $260 trillion in global debt, that may not be possible.

Ordinarily I wouldn't be talking like this, but the world economy
is extremely fragile today because of the US-China trade talks, and
especially because of the world coronavirus crisis, which has already
resulted in millions of businesses in China going bankrupt. These
factors are an enormous shock to the body of interlocking,
interconnective debt that I described.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then investors will spend
the weekend becoming increasingly worried, and be ready to sell first
thing Monday morning, resulting in a massive Black Monday selloff.

[vincecate]

If a new panic begins, the Fed and
other central banks would try to "print money" to patch things up, but
with $260 trillion in global debt, that may not be possible.

The Fed can print money and buy up bonds. The more bonds there are the more they can print. So having lots of debt in bonds means it is easier for them to print lots. It is still possible to print.

At some point the printing will not help the economy though. It will fail in some way. I expect it fails in that countries use the dollar less and less as a reserve currency and the US dollar gets more and more inflation, but we shall see.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then investors will spend
the weekend becoming increasingly worried, and be ready to sell first
thing Monday morning, resulting in a massive Black Monday selloff.

Very good point. Monday will be interesting.

Sort of on the dollar dominance fail above:
Iranian General like idea of using Bitcoin to avoid US sanctions:
https://themerkle.com/iranian-general-p ... sanctions/

To me it would make sense for Iran to selling oil for Bitcoin.

[Higgenbotham]

A chain reaction panic would not be caused by recent reckless
transactions or recent shorts. It would be caused by the unraveling
of hundreds of trillions of dollars of interlocking debt that has
been built up since the end of World War II, and people increasingly
ignored the lessons of the Great Depression.

I'm getting some corroboration this morning that this is the case. The talk in the break room in Chicago (as reported to me this morning) is that many S&P put sellers were force liquidated last night.

[aeden]

Mulvaney also slammed the media for painting a narrative that the Trump administration is "scrambling" to contain the virus, noting that he briefed Congress along with top health officials six weeks ago. He accused the media of ignoring coronavirus until now, according to The Hill.
"Why didn’t you hear about it?" Mulvaney asked the audience while sitting down with Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore. "The press was covering their hoax of the day because they thought it would bring down the president."
"Is it real? It absolutely is real," Mulvaney said. "But you saw the president the other day — the flu is real."
Mulvaney then downplayed the risk of the new coronavirus, saying that people should be focusing on the mortality rate which is currently, officially, between 2 and 3%.

If coronavirus gains a foothold in American cities and we begin to see footage of people falling over in the streets, we suspect the Trump administration will have much explaining to do for their early attempts to downplay the threat. tylers

[aeden]

opened oil @$44.xx long
book four open as noted
bought more #$vxrt
solvency is issue
will stay short until ash Wednesday

[Higgenbotham]

This morning I've been thinking about which market situation the past few days most resembles. To me, the closest is August 2015. At that time, the market went straight down for 4 sessions, dropping from about 2100 to about 1825 (a 14% drop). Near the end of the drop, the book became thin at night and the market was ping ponging in similar fashion to what we've seen the past few days. Also, the drop to now has been similar at 16%.

Although history doesn't repeat, this one may rhyme. From that 14% drop the next big event in the market was a 3 wave rally that retraced all the way to near 2025. That rally took 17 session to complete before the low of the 4 day drop was tested.

In the similar period to recently (the initial multi day drop), in 2015, I multiplied my account 5 fold working at night, as I had a day job at that time. As the market rallied back up, I was able to increase the size of my position and I took a large short position, covering near the low after the first wave of the retrace rally. Then I took an even larger position on the next rally up. It was here that I got myself in trouble by taking too large a position too soon (by then I was short 20 lots). My broker called me at work around noon and said margins wanted me out by the close if we stayed up at that level. That afternoon the market collapsed and I was able to stay in. Moral of the story is if a retrace wave comes from this area, watch out. It may go higher than you or I would think possible.

[Higgenbotham]

I would also mention in 1929, the market dropped about 16% before retracing 2/3 of the loss. The difference is the initial drop took 23 trading days, not 6. The crash came after the 2/3 retrace when the low of the initial drop was taken out. That was about 6 weeks after the top.