Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Belguim reports in.
My god... CNN is complaining on all EU news channels that Trump is destroying the free press...
SICK!
This shows how our media is a filthy hooker...

Rodriguez described the address book and the information contained within it as the "Holy Grail"
or "Golden Nugget" to unraveling Epstein's sprawling child-sex network. #piazzagate



Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

There were 1300 ES sell orders at 2984.75 as the market ran up at day end. That was the only block of 1000 plus orders I saw today.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:Today is day 110.

https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/stat ... 2019-07-09
Comparing to the other instances listed, there is an inverted yield curve, yes, but in addition birthrates are falling like a rock and valuations are more extreme (except for 2000 and in that case it depends on which valuation metric is used). In 2000, the market made its secondary (lower) high 32 days after the yield curve inverted.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:** 07-Jul-2019 Bear Stearns CDO funds collapse, 7/17/2007
Higgenbotham wrote: > This may be a coming Bear Stearns or Lehman moment but it's very
> unlikely the market will recognize it as such as of yet.

> I remember when the first Bear Stearns CDO funds collapsed on July
> 17, 2007. The boards were all completely brain dead on the issue,
> and the stock market did little to nothing for 2 days. So we'll
> see.

> There will be a very small percentage of people in the world who
> will see this for what it might be as worldwide IQ plummets and we
> descend headlong into the new dark age.
The Generational Dynamics board was definitely NOT brain dead.
This is why I deleted the comment. I recall that this site was on it and didn't want to cause any confusion.

For clarification, I'm talking about message boards, which didn't exist here at the time.

At that time, there were comments on message boards like, "Why are futures down 5 points? Was it Yahoo earnings?"

My point is expect the herd to ignore this news, and for the stock market to march higher as the most likely outcome. Be very cautious about going short up to your eyeballs just based on this.

At the same time, a very serious collapse appears to be brewing under the surface and is close. There was talk about Bear Stearns being in trouble for weeks before those CDO funds collapsed. It was even in mainline publications like the New York Times. This is at least an order of magnitude more serious in my opinion. I think the relative size and scope of Deutsche is probably 100 times that of Bear Stearns.
At this point, we now have the obligatory sequence of events unfolding. I only saw "Deutsche Bank" mentioned on one message board since the news broke. Meanwhile, today investors focus on the Fed saying they will backstop the economy (er, I mean stock market) while the elephant in the room is not mentioned at all and stocks go to record highs. Now there's enough that the market can turn down. Not that it will, but it can.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

In American Banker’s BankThink on October 2016, I argued that “it is especially imperative that U.S. bank regulators ask the 25 largest U.S. banks to measure their credit exposure to Deutsche. It is not only our eight globally systemically important banks that are engaged in a wide range of transactions with Deutsche in the U.S. or abroad. Indeed, even regional banks hold derivatives and repurchasing agreements with Deutsche. All 25 banks invest in Deutsche's bonds and stocks and provide all kinds of short- and long-term liquidity and credit facilities to the German giant.” I appreciate that now as Deutsche Bank goes on this crash diet, it will become less globally systemically important. Under the Financial Stability Board’s methodology, Deutsche Bank’s slimming down will help it incur less of a Globally Systemically Important Bank (GSIB) capital charge. Yet, this does not happen overnight, and this does not mean that Deutsche’s other capital, leverage, liquidity, and risk management requirements will decrease.

Importantly, Deutsche Bank’s significant opacity means that we do not know exactly how much counterparty risk banks and non-banks (hedge funds, private equity, securities firms, pension funds, university endowments, and business development companies) around the world have to Deutsche Bank. What is the counterparty and credit exposure of municipalities, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and corporations to Deutsche Bank? These aforementioned institutions have credit exposure to Deutsche Bank in multiple important ways.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodri ... 574d6324bd
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

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