Financial topics

[richard5za]

Higgie, you have been doing some interesting work.
My q uestion is do I buy and hold (Or sell and hold) or do I short term trade
So my view is determine your type of trading from the trend and especially considering the P?E ratio trend. So for example look at a chart of the Dow 1900 through to 2000 for the P/E ratio only You will see that in this 100 year period there were 4 up P/E ratio trends and 4 down P/E ratio trends, even as low as 5.
Since ther P/E ratio is the greatest driver of share price in an up P/E ratio trend you buy and hold. So if h
the P/E ratio goes for 8 to 24 you have a 3 fold increase in price before the earnings pushes it up further. In a down P/E ratio trend you short term trade mostly in shorts rather than longs.
Another view.
I have done well this year short term trading so far averaging a gain of just over 8% per month compound calculated. I think more than 2/3rds of the trades have been same day, nothing longer than a week. I always set up the stop losses when I enter the trade so that large losses never materialise (they stop out)

Richard, which PE ratio do you favor to find the PE ratio trend - trailing 12 month, forward, Shiller, etc.? Do you find that the PE ratio trend and price trend ever deviate from each other when you use the PE ratio you favor?

Looking at PE ratios of sectors of the market that have existed throughout most of market history (like autos) shows many in single digits near previous historical lows in PE. Some notable investors are saying the market is cheap here (Ron Baron being a recent example). However, I think in most cases this is due to the earnings (and margins) being temporarily bloated rather than the stocks being truly cheap. If earnings were to fall faster than the stock prices, PE ratios could go up from here at the same time stock prices go down. Would that indicate that the stock market is a buy? Something like this happened in 2008 where the PE ratio actually spiked up as the market made its low. In the fourth quarter of 2008 S&P 500 earnings went negative.

Higgie,
I favour Shiller.
The roots of my stock market / investing understanding is based upon the research of Crestmont research. I have purchased all their books and I get their quarterly newsletter (free of charge) If you are familiar with this work then I don't need explain that I am expecting a low point in the P/E ratio which is below 10. I think that 2008 could have been that point except for Fed interference in the markets and it never got low enough.
I am recovering from Covid at present so will write more ina day or two

[Cool Breeze]

What stands out to me is that 4 of the 8 are fully long while none are short. If this is representative of what is going on in the market, any break in the market could result in a lot of selling pressure.

Yes, I'm fading that. The only way we get to a new ATH in these markets is when QE resumes after the Fed finishes their job of crushing the markets in the first place (bad news coming mid-late July). I expect this might happen, but not for several months or into next year. At that time, BTC will also go to new ATHs

[Higgenbotham]

A stabilization or improvement in the relative strength of Bitcoin versus the Nasdaq could be a good first indication that BTC is ready to make a more sustained move higher than has been seen since the all time high.

[Higgenbotham]

Higgie,
I favour Shiller.
The roots of my stock market / investing understanding is based upon the research of Crestmont research. I have purchased all their books and I get their quarterly newsletter (free of charge) If you are familiar with this work then I don't need explain that I am expecting a low point in the P/E ratio which is below 10. I think that 2008 could have been that point except for Fed interference in the markets and it never got low enough.
I am recovering from Covid at present so will write more ina day or two

Richard, the fact that you are using Shiller to find the trend and Crestmont research methods answers most of the rest of my questions.

[Cool Breeze]

Does anyone know a good way to short the Eurozone? I see EUO (euro currency) and EPV, but these inverse ETFs are difficult to deal with and I think structurally are only short term plays.

[aeden]

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases ... nt/h41.htm
Dollar value of foreign currency held under these agreements valued at the exchange rate to be used when the foreign currency is returned
to the foreign central bank. This exchange rate equals the market exchange rate used when the foreign currency was acquired from the
foreign central bank.

That would be a suicide run just like holding Cariboo digits as it's 106 miles to Chicago, we've got a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes,
it's dark and we're wearing sunglasses plan. Right now Says law is in play as you wish to short Keynes who the Statist actually ignored
as needed cartels now matter as Hayek warning was ignored is in play. We are using calls on essential and if this is bottom carving we will see in
September knowing what hooker will be set on fire. The chorus of the frogs is the liberals screams as Harpys to interrupted tissue sales
in a zone. Amos was right about sick painted cows. Captains drunk staring at cold Oatmeal in a supply issue acting like the e-cons had a plan.
Priceless body farm swamp surrounded by the Red Queen in needed growth and maintenance Investments.
IN the real World systems allocate energy between growth and maintenance and repair.
You had been warned nudge, push, shove, shoot was a fact with these sociopaths. Some one said no.
Now five to seven hundred percent increases in stupid as imbalances are mandated. Priceless.

Last time we went through this shit storm a P/E of 6 survived and the political cartels decided.
Sheep, Muppets, Penguins, and barking Seals as they are butchered for the betters cult.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9Ccooiz1jI <======== data points observation and probable timelines.

Pro tip are the smart ones who just survived the red queen and thank your lucky stars they planned ahead and ate some costs.
Companies have that have a sense of the cost to acquire reserves, either through exploration or acquisition,
which is then deemed to be maintenance capital spending.

The point is still the same as the other retards have had since 1973 to get a plan other than lie cheat and steal with
another Captain Oatmeal at the helm looting.

Another Food Processing Plant Shutters Operations, Adding To Long List Of Closures"
Another 6-sigma event.

Energy and mining stocks are the best-performing groups in the rising Stoxx Europe 600 index amid commodity gains. Shell shares rise as much as 3.8%, TotalEnergies +2.7%, BP +3.4%, Rio Tinto +4.6%, Glencore +3.9% t

During the exhaustion stage of stress, the body begins to become overwhelmed by the chronic effects of stress on the body.
By this point, the body has attempted to recover using its compensatory mechanisms and has failed.
Its energy stores are depleted, and the exhaustion stage has caused the body to feel some distressing symptoms.

Your new serf leader will cackle as you eat insects.
https://media.patriots.win/post/iDgTJ5bU.png

Truman was right.

EIA.gov. that yes they utilized you will find out that fossil fuel will still represent more than 70% of US energy by 2050
The stupid ones are the lefties that don’t realize this is mass murder, and the authors of this green bullshit know it.

The Bundeswehr study may not have immediate political consequences, either, but it shows that the German government fears shortages could quickly arise. That was 2010 for the actual younger souls. For some here we have watched this even before 1973.
The feedback will be sociopaths who went from red diaper's to red depends thinking they doing just that.
The fact of the matters are just that. Into the wheel chairs they go arrogated and looting,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY7RIn4byK0

[aeden]

This is R and D, boys and girls. 46 examples of Uniparty. Next.

[aeden]

After Hunter spent more than $30,000 on prostitutes between November 2018 and March 2019 - including several who use ".ru" email addresses linked to Russia, and an "exclusive model agency," UberGFE, Joe wired $5,000 while Hunter was "actively engaged" with an escort.
Hunter Biden disclosed in text messages with a woman named Eva, the go-between who served as his primary point of contact for UberGFE, that his accounts were temporarily frozen at one point because his attempted payments to her "girls" with Russian email accounts were too much of a "red flag" for his bank. Eva refers to him as Robert in the messages, which is his birth name. -Washington Examiner
Hunter also convinced Joe to send $20,000 more, claiming it was to pay for drug rehab in New York, but which never actually happened.
The Examiner notes that there's no suggestion that Joe knew what Hunter was spending the money on.

"What's wrong with you," Hunter asked the Examiner just after the above story was published.

lulz

U.S. Energy Information Administration product releases scheduled June 27, 2022, will be delayed while we continue system restoration.

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_r ... able16.pdf

[richard5za]

Does anyone know a good way to short the Eurozone? I see EUO (euro currency) and EPV, but these inverse ETFs are difficult to deal with and I think structurally are only short term plays.

My favourite trading platform is IG which has their head office in London, but you can open an account from anywhere and trade in your local currency. You can trade forex, shares, indicies, etc etc. The URL is IG.com You can practice on a free of charge demo account
I find forex trading too much like reds/blacks betting rather than applying analysis; not for me.

[aeden]

Rabid bank was fined $369 million by the U.S. government after admitting it handled Mexican drug trade
and trolls the market as it stands in a wet spot for QE.

Next.