Financial topics

[Cool Breeze]

I think you were prudent to cover your shorts Higg, ...

I am more confident that 6 months from now the markets will be much lower than ever before and I have both higher total bets and higher percentage of my total wealth betting that markets will go down now than ever before. But I use puts/calls because of bad experiences where even if I was right about the long term direction if I was wrong in the short term I could lose bad.

Yes, March/April right?

[vincecate]

Yes, March/April right?

Really I think it is in the next 2 months but any new options I buy are usually 6 months out or more.

[Cool Breeze]

Yes, March/April right?

Really I think it is in the next 2 months but any new options I buy are usually 6 months out or more.

Do you foresee a day in the next 1-3 years where you would buy to invest long term, or lose less due to inflation and other confiscation measures?

[Cool Breeze]

[vincecate]

Do you foresee a day in the next 1-3 years where you would buy to invest long term, or lose less due to inflation and other confiscation measures?

If the market crashes as much as I expect I will be doing some long term long investing. Gold and Bitcoin will still be a huge part of my long position but there are some equities that I would buy at much lower prices.

But my main dream is to start/build a seastead business. There is some beach land by the main port in Anguilla that I am looking at. I don't expect to care about stock market stuff much after the crash. Plan to buy investments for very long term and ignore them.

[richard5za]

Do you foresee a day in the next 1-3 years where you would buy to invest long term, or lose less due to inflation and other confiscation measures?

If the market crashes as much as I expect I will be doing some long term long investing. Gold and Bitcoin will still be a huge part of my long position but there are some equities that I would buy at much lower prices.

But my main dream is to start/build a seastead business. There is some beach land by the main port in Anguilla that I am looking at. I don't expect to care about stock market stuff much after the crash. Plan to buy investments for very long term and ignore them.

Vince, do you not feel uneasy about decentralised finance when the running of modern industrialised countries requires a central banking system for management of the economy? If the various forms of Defi take up even a small percentage of the money supply the whole modernised world will make their business to bring it under centalised management? There may well be short term gains, or even medium term, but the long term?

Gold is different; its part of the money supply and held by all central banks

[richard5za]

Vince, I see Cleveland Fed is forecasting 8.2% for Thursday, same as lastmonth, but maybe its higher?

And if so the market could rapidly run down to the 61.8% retracement level, about 3200

And then a bounce? Higg?

[vincecate]

Vince, do you not feel uneasy about decentralised finance when the running of modern industrialised countries requires a central banking system for management of the economy? If the various forms of Defi take up even a small percentage of the money supply the whole modernised world will make their business to bring it under centalised management? There may well be short term gains, or even medium term, but the long term?

Gold is different; its part of the money supply and held by all central banks

A big part of the power of governments spending ability comes from printing money. Bitcoin takes that power away from them. Governments will miss that power, in particular the USA. So governments will/are fighting Bitcoin. I don't see any real way they can stop it. Outlawing drugs has more chance of working than outlawing Bitcoin as there is something physical regular cops can see, but they really have no luck with that. Different countries have tried outlawing Bitcoin at different times and had little luck.

If governments make laws they have no ability to enforce it reduces the populations respect for the government. Too much of that is dangerous to the government.

They will make CBDCs and tell people to use them, and for some transactions people will, but I expect long term saving to still go to Bitcoin. It will be easy for them to tax CBDCs and harder and harder to tax Bitcoin. Bitcoin has powerful tools for privacy that will become easier to use and more common over time (see "submarine swaps" and "coinjoin"). So governments won't be able to track Bitcoin or know how much you have, so confiscating or taxing won't be possible. As more and more people understand how much safer they are using Bitcoin than regular banks and fiat money, the demand and usage will keep going up.

Here is a video I did 13 years ago with my kids about the USA printing money and the world accepting it for real things. I really think this is changing now as many countries seem to be reducing their treasury purchases or selling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYSHhNcKzKE

Even if Bitcoin was just used for international payments, it would shoot up. If a few countries blocked from SWIFT start accepting it for oil, then I think eventually the world is using it for many things. I think it will happen because it is the best way around SWIFT.

[vincecate]

Vince, I see Cleveland Fed is forecasting 8.2% for Thursday, same as lastmonth, but maybe its higher?

And if so the market could rapidly run down to the 61.8% retracement level, about 3200

I think the street is expecting 8.1%. But I think people still believe we are quickly going back to 2% inflation and even 8.1% is more than many investors think we will get. I think we will get higher. We were only down/holding because oil was moving down. I think oil either holds are goes up from here. But even if we just got 8.1% for a few more months, the "quickly back to 2%" would have to die at some point.

[Cool Breeze]

Do you foresee a day in the next 1-3 years where you would buy to invest long term, or lose less due to inflation and other confiscation measures?

If the market crashes as much as I expect I will be doing some long term long investing. Gold and Bitcoin will still be a huge part of my long position but there are some equities that I would buy at much lower prices.

But my main dream is to start/build a seastead business. There is some beach land by the main port in Anguilla that I am looking at. I don't expect to care about stock market stuff much after the crash. Plan to buy investments for very long term and ignore them.

Good idea.