Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
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Tom Mazanec
Posts: 4180
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Tom Mazanec »

Deglobalization Is Inflationary
August 15, 2022
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug22/gl ... y8-22.html
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”

― G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

NoMansLand wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:05 pm
take one more for the team. Please tell me that he knows he has to keep hiking, even in the face of pain, to preserve the dollar's reserve currency status. Tell me that he is a man of fortitude who has always been determined to do WHATEVER the situation called for, even if he hoped it wouldn't come up.

I apologize if I have posted this in the wrong place.
You may be in the wrong place if you are seeking comfort. Most people here have a bleak view of the financial and market future

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

July FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday with market currently pricing in a ~52% probability of a 50 bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting and a ~48% probability of a 75 bp move. I take note that July nonfarm payrolls surprised meaningfully to the upside and companies (particularly in services) continue to flag a tight labour market and upward pressure on wages. From what I read Fed officials seem to have also aggressively pushed back against a "pivot narrative" that has played a role in the recent bounce in stocks.
Options expiry on Friday.
Might be a surprising week?

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Cost based transfer sysyem will eat the consumers alive.
I heard one today say that September inputs will devastate Octobers reality.
You thought the baby bears as AUM was not paying attention as more are finally waking up.
The model these green masks and watermellens are still gaining traction as trajectory as
they pay lip service as they portend to adjust the lightswitch inputs as noted.
Damned fools did not even care to cover the actual intent in malevalance.
You are the last impediment to total darkness named deplorables and flyovers.
I do not thing the Senate has gauged the resolve and intent to chart the survival against
the actual agency issues in plain site. The demsheviks know and knew how to leverage
divercity to node cluster failure maps. Precise darts to assail is fundamentally correct.
Option expiry will rattle the weak hands. H indicate the ususal amount in draw drown in aggregate
so filter low PE and sweep back tested candidates as we have already noted.
As known Captain Oatmeal will pander the ususal suspects as no taxes as
cost-based transfer price gains traction unleashing countless minions at no cost to you.
Absolutely priceless watching the body farm.

When pushed hard by economists, welfare propagandists and socialists admit that impairment of the average standard of living can only be avoided by the maintenance of capital already accumulated and that economic improvement depends on accumulation of additional capital. History does not provide any example of capital accumulation brought about by a government. The consumers are merciless. They never buy in order to benefit a less efficient producer and to protect him against the consequences of his failure to manage better. They want to be served as well as possible. And the working of the capitalist system forces the entrepreneur to obey the orders issued by the consumers. The corruption of the regulatory bodies does not shake his blind confidence in the infallibility and perfection of the state; it merely fills him with moral aversion to entrepreneurs and capitalists. No one should expect that any logical argument or any experience could ever shake the almost religious fervor of those who believe in salvation through spending and credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment.

https://mises.org/library/human-action-0

The Doctrine of Discovery is not well-known to people who are not:
(a) historians
(b) legal scholars
(c) American Indians
https://doctrineofdiscovery.org/papal-bulls/
https://www.educationviews.org/white-slaves-america/ Wiped clean since it exposed reality.

Since those who are sealed by the blood of Lamb we suggest meekly you will miss this.

He placed his right foot on the Sea and his left foot on the Land. r10-2

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Market related.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds


https://theconversation.com/being-copyc ... man-121932
But a growing number of cognitive scientists and anthropologists are rejecting that explanation. These researchers think that, rather than making our living as innovators, human beings survive and thrive precisely because we don’t think for ourselves. Instead, people cope with challenging climates and ecological contexts by carefully copying others – especially those we respect. Instead of Homo sapiens, or “man the knower,” we’re really Homo imitans: “man the imitator.”

In a famous study, psychologists Victoria Horner and Andrew Whiten showed two groups of test subjects – children and chimpanzees – a mechanical box with a treat inside. In one condition, the box was opaque, while in the other it was transparent. The experimenters demonstrated how to open the box to retrieve a treat, but they also included the irrelevant step of tapping on the box with a stick.

Oddly, human children carefully copied all the steps to open the box, even when they could see that the stick had no practical effect. That is, they copied irrationally: Instead of doing only what was necessary to get their reward, children slavishly imitated every action they’d witnessed.

Of course, that study only included three- and four-year-olds. But additional research has showed that older children and adults are even more likely to mindlessly copy others’ actions, and young infants are less likely to over-imitate – that is, to precisely copy even impractical actions.

By contrast, chimpanzees in Horner and Whiten’s study only over-imitated in the opaque condition. In the transparent condition – where they saw that the stick was mechanically useless – they ignored that step entirely, merely opening the box with their hands. Other research has since supported these findings.

When it comes to copying, chimpanzees are more rational than human children or adults.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Jerome Powell is walking on a narrow strip of land. He can only move in one direction. In the direction he must move the strip of land is getting narrower and narrower. Over to the right is a cliff that leads to a pit full of fire. That is inflation. To the left, is a pit full of ice. That is deflation. At the edge of the pit of fire, there are monsters up ahead of Powell chewing on the edge of the land making it narrower. These are the monsters punishing past money printing actions. At the edge of the pit of ice, there are monsters up ahead of Powell chewing on the land on that side. They are the monsters punishing past actions which increased the debt. Powell recently realized he got too close to the pit of fire. He kept reassuring himself that somehow the monsters on the right would stop chewing on the land but they chewed harder and harder until he realized that if he continued walking in a straight line he would soon fall into the pit of fire. So he changed course and started slowly veering left. Being very fearful of the pit of ice, he veered slowly, maybe too slowly. At the present time, as he has in the past, he is trying to use "incoming data" to determine whether he is closer to the pit of fire or the pit of ice while at the same time trying to slow the monsters that are chewing on the strip of land ahead of him by using his "tools". His goal is to walk the line equidistant from the pit of fire and the pit of ice. That is his only goal.

Powell turns around realizing that looking back will not help him but he is curious anyway and a bit wistful for the good old days of Paul Volcker when men of conviction and courage could act decisively and do the right thing. Behind him, Janet Yellen is holding a sign, and further behind is Ben Bernanke, who is also holding a sign. Yellen's sign can't be deciphered but Bernanke's sign is clear. It says, "Screw you, I got mine," and in his left hand he is waving his $250,000 check which he got for giving a speech in Abu Dhabi right after leaving the Fed. Powell takes out his binoculars. Way in the distance he sees Ross Perot on a stretcher being carried into an ambulance. Even further in the distance is Paul Volcker wandering aimlessly in a drunken stupor, thinking to himself that maybe it would have been better if he had been incompetent and let it all collapse in 1980.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

While we are waiting for the Fed minutes to be released, here is something market related which is very, very interesting and curious to me.

The stock market made its high on September 3, 1929, then crashed in October. The rebound high after the October crash ended on April 16, 1930 seven months and 13 days later. Then of course the market fell for another 26 months until 1932, losing about 90%.

Our current stock market made its high on January 4, 2022 (it was not open on January 3). Yesterday, seven months and 12 days later, also on the 16th of the month, it made a rebound high and then turned down.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:14 am
While we are waiting for the Fed minutes to be released, here is something market related which is very, very interesting and curious to me.

The stock market made its high on September 3, 1929, then crashed in October. The rebound high after the October crash ended on April 16, 1930 seven months and 13 days later. Then of course the market fell for another 26 months until 1932, losing about 90%.

Our current stock market made its high on January 4, 2022 (it was not open on January 3). Yesterday, seven months and 12 days later, also on the 16th of the month, it made a rebound high and then turned down.
I'm picking up what you're putting down

Cool Breeze
Posts: 2935
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:19 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Cool Breeze »

richard5za wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:12 am
NoMansLand wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:05 pm
take one more for the team. Please tell me that he knows he has to keep hiking, even in the face of pain, to preserve the dollar's reserve currency status. Tell me that he is a man of fortitude who has always been determined to do WHATEVER the situation called for, even if he hoped it wouldn't come up.

I apologize if I have posted this in the wrong place.
You may be in the wrong place if you are seeking comfort. Most people here have a bleak view of the financial and market future
The dollar is also in between a rock and a hard place. Too strong the whole world economy collapses, too weak or with more easing productivity continues to decline, and the math doesn't work out for paying all that debt back, even though interest rates are the same or down. As the milkshake goes, outsiders will get crushed by USD denominated debt, then it'll cause a huge world problem with liquidity which will force the USD to agree to being even further debased, or just plummet on its own.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

Vince, UK inflation is at 10.1% for July and predicted to rise to 13% by October> Expect USA inflation to continue upwards

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