Re: Financial topics
Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 2:01 pm
From a web site reader:
discontinuities based on long-term generational trends. Thus, we
know that there'll be a major financial crisis, and there'll be a
major world war, but all we can only make intelligent guesses at the
details, based on trends and previous crises.
A lot depends on the order in which crises occur. Right now, it
looks like the financial crisis will come first, but there are also
very serious situations in Pakistan and China, so that isn't certain.
On my web site, I've identified eight individual crises areas (West
Europe, Arab-Israeli, Russia-Caucasus, Kashmir (Pak-India), China,
North Korea, Financial, Bird Flu.)
These crises are like dominoes, in the sense that when any one
occurs, I would expect the others to occur within a couple of years.
In the world war to come, I expect the main protagonists to be China
and the U.S., and in Asia I expect China to be allied with Pakistan
and Bangladesh, while the U.S. is allied with India and Russia.
People sometimes ask me where they should live, and I would guess
that any sparsely populated region would be safest, provided that
you're capable of surviving without public infrastructure.
On the other hand, you probably wouldn't be protected from a bird flu
pandemic, no matter where you lived.
There are a number of other details that I could suggest, and I do
sometimes discuss these details on my web site, but basically the
world has never seen anything like this before, so beyond a few broad
generalities, very little is absolutely certain.
I hope that helps at least a little.
Sincerely,
John
All that Generational Dynamics can do is identify major> John, I really appreciate your latest weblog entry, which makes
> it clear that the problem we are facing is much larger than the
> financial markets. Generational Theory says we're in a world of
> shit right now that will not resolve without a MAJOR geopolitical
> conflict (right?). In a nuclear era, this scares the living hell
> out of me a lot more than losing the rest of my 401k. Please help
> us to understand the warning signs for international or (I
> believe) intranational conflict.
> (I have a feeling that in the US a hell of a lot more people are
> going to be clinging real damn tight to guns and religion soon.)
> Right now I see Russia taking moves to assert military dominance
> over oil shipping lanes and the inevitable US pullback leaving a
> power vacuum worldwide. I also have to assume some major
> reluctance of nuclear powers to engage one another directly. What
> does Generational Theory say about where we're headed?
discontinuities based on long-term generational trends. Thus, we
know that there'll be a major financial crisis, and there'll be a
major world war, but all we can only make intelligent guesses at the
details, based on trends and previous crises.
A lot depends on the order in which crises occur. Right now, it
looks like the financial crisis will come first, but there are also
very serious situations in Pakistan and China, so that isn't certain.
On my web site, I've identified eight individual crises areas (West
Europe, Arab-Israeli, Russia-Caucasus, Kashmir (Pak-India), China,
North Korea, Financial, Bird Flu.)
These crises are like dominoes, in the sense that when any one
occurs, I would expect the others to occur within a couple of years.
In the world war to come, I expect the main protagonists to be China
and the U.S., and in Asia I expect China to be allied with Pakistan
and Bangladesh, while the U.S. is allied with India and Russia.
People sometimes ask me where they should live, and I would guess
that any sparsely populated region would be safest, provided that
you're capable of surviving without public infrastructure.
On the other hand, you probably wouldn't be protected from a bird flu
pandemic, no matter where you lived.
There are a number of other details that I could suggest, and I do
sometimes discuss these details on my web site, but basically the
world has never seen anything like this before, so beyond a few broad
generalities, very little is absolutely certain.
I hope that helps at least a little.
Sincerely,
John