Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Cool Breeze wrote: ↑

Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:02 pm

Exactly. But one could argue you still have the problem of all that USD denominated debt out there ...

That debt is crashing in value. The TLT ETF (Treasuries Long Term) was down 1.91% just today. Bonds paying 3.5% per year and losing 1.91% per day become less of a problem really fast.

Update: Tuesday TLT is down another 2.63%

The UK has 10% inflation and is starting up QE again. Pound probably heading lower.

https://www.politico.eu/article/bank-of ... m-markets/

So 3 big currencies are printing money and buying bonds in the face of inflation:
1) Japan - to hold 10 year bond yields at 0.25%
2) Europe - to keep a lid on Italian and Spanish bond rates
3) UK - to keep bond prices up

The UK it is already in high inflation. In all cases I expect inflation will keep going up.

The world currencies are headed for trouble.

-- Vince

vincecate wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:27 am

So 3 big currencies are printing money and buying bonds in the face of inflation:
1) Japan - to hold 10 year bond yields at 0.25%
2) Europe - to keep a lid on Italian and Spanish bond rates
3) UK - to keep bond prices up

The UK it is already in high inflation. In all cases I expect inflation will keep going up.

The world currencies are headed for trouble.

-- Vince

It's quite satisfying that we were proven correct, and it will continue. Sad that we never get credit.

Cool Breeze wrote: ↑

Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:12 pm

It's quite satisfying that we were proven correct, and it will continue. Sad that we never get credit.

My put options on FXY (Yen ETF) are giving me plenty of credits.

08:30 AM US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 -0.6%
08:30 AM US Initial Jobless Claims 24/SEP 193K

GDP negative again and US Jobless claims lower than what the market wanted?

(3) could be over in a truncated 5th wave capitulation or this down move could be sub-minute wave (i) of minute wave ((v)) and we see sub 3600. I'm leaning towards end of (3). What do you guys think?

Germany has a month over month CPI of 1.9%. When you are aiming for a 2% year over year number, this is too high.

https://www.investing.com/economic-cale ... an-cpi-128

Account value often follows Elliott Wave. Below is my account value for the past 6 months. The big spikes down near the beginning and end are where I drew money out. Between the days where I drew money out 5 waves up are marked in red, with wave 3 being the longest in time and greatest in increase. The wave 4 drawdown is where I started going short at 4100 too early as discussed here at that time.

After making 5 waves up, it's time to be cautious because a big correction can come. Right now I think about what would be a conservative amount to trade, then I cut that in half. This is can be seen at the beginning of April and this month, where equity grew very slowly as I got more conservative trying to avoid a big correction.

Looks like we're going sub 3600. Ya, I'm out of the market at the moment. I'd rather wait until a more definite trend than try to get another 3-4% trying to time the bottom of a wave count. It's harder as well that I'm trying to trade the Canadian TSX Composite, it just doesn't follow the US Markets and has it's own wave count as it's more commodities based and currency fluctuations cause the waves to be less clearly visible.

It's still fun charting the SPX, I thought the DXY weakness would have buoyed the stocks more which is why I thought the SPX could have bottomed already.